ot: how long

ushere wrote on 1/11/2005, 8:39 PM

hi one and all,
i'm writing some course notes for a course i'm giving and, since my so called retirement about five years ago, i haven't really kept up to date with a number of things. i'd really appreciate any comments you might have regarding the following. i have numbered them for simplicity, and added my own thoughts in brackets.

1. how long before the crt gives way to lcd/plasma (home use, not pc)? (i'm talking majority, not home theatre or status symbol)

2. how long till 16:9 becomes the norm? (i shoot for two national broadcasters and they're both still 4:3 in news depts)

3. i still shoot doco's 4:3 because i hate the lost talking head in 16:9, and worst still, the swell head in stretch to 16:9. for intimate, up close and personal...)

4. is hd a reality? considering studio costs (forget sport!), bandwidth, et al....

thanks in advance,

leslie

Comments

riredale wrote on 1/12/2005, 9:36 AM

Based on my own observations:

(1) LCD will continue to make inroads, but cheap TVs will still be CRT. Maybe in 5 years you'll have the majority of sets LCD. I don't have a handle on Plasma--it gets so darn hot I wonder if this is a viable long-term technology...

(2) Because of the screwed-up introduction of HDTV I think you'll see 4:3 for many years to come. 16:9 in large sizes will be common in settings where the principal objective is movie entertainment.

(3) You could always shoot in 16:9 HDV, and thereby have your bases covered if and when your benefactor begins to insist on the wide-screen look. Meanwhile, you can crop to 4:3.

(4) Because the FCC so totally screwed-up the HDTV introduction, who knows how or when it will play out? For example, if they begin to offer money to viewers in an effort to make them switch over, the transition will happen much more quickly.

For the record: we don't yet have a 16:9 display in our home. I intend to get one, though, as soon as our faithful Mitsubishi big-screen 4:3 dies (already 20 years old). The principal objective for the new set will be to show DVDs, not HDTV programming.

filmy wrote on 1/12/2005, 11:59 AM

On the aspect ratio issues it may take a while for 16:9/widescreen to become a "norm" in all reguards, however keep in mind how long PC's have been around and how now they are considered the "norm". Same can be said for cell phones, cable TV and services like AOL. Things progress very fast anymore and most places in the US sort have one or all of what I mentioned. If someone is not online they are considered a freak, no cell phone? What is up with that? LOL. I can't tell you how many people ask if I have AIM, if not that than MSM or Yahoo. Im's are consider the "norm" anymore. As is email. Following this path, and thread, Time Warner has been marketing HD for the last year or so...as in if you already have Time Warner cable you already have HD, all you need is the set. In most reguards the HD standard is 16:9 so in a way HD and 16:9 is already the "norm".

Ok, so that was a bit over simple but with the cost of basic hardware so low (And this included COmputers, video cards and DVD players) most people have some form of HD already available. HD ready TV's have been out for a while, in a post last year I listed the timelines the FCC had set - and in keeping with this I have seen the smaller size HD ready 16:9 apsect ratio sets for under $500 (us) where as in 2003 in only the bigger screens. This year is is a bit harder to fine anything larger than 40 inch that is not 16:9 / HD. In some reguards this may be something where the technology, and price, are ahead of product. So IMO on the consumer front it is already the "norm" to have at least the access for HD and 16:9. It has been what? A year or more since T-2 came out on DVD with the HD version included. Set top boxes that will pay HD material, WMV or Divx, are just now hitting the market.

On the actual delivery front it is another issue. I have had a HD (1080i) 16:9 TV for over a year now - yet I don't have any HD material coming in. We don't have cable TV, we have satelite but to get the HD decoder will cost another $500 or so excluding a new dish. DVD are not yet in HD, nor are there any true HD DVD players out (other than some WMV and Divx HD capable ones that jave just been annonced - but it is still up in the air if these would be "true HD"). However about 4 months ago I did get a $30 DVD player that does output 720p via component outputs. (And Finding Nemo came out on DVD saying it was the first film output direct from the digital / HD masters) So is it a reality? HD that is. Yes, because on the production end for TV it has to be, and for film - well 16:9 has been the "norm" for many many years and many 'classic' films have been re-mastered with the new technology. Rescanning some of these retimed prints direct to HD is not something too far out.

IMO now is the time to plan ahead. 16:9 TV has somewhat been the norm in many other places for years. The US has been behind for a long time in that reguard. Coming from a film background it was common the hear the DP ask "Are we framing for TV or film?" and to hear a response like "Shoot for film but frame for TV". I have kept that thought when I have shot video because I hate the 'talking head' shots so common in TV. But at 4:3 the 'off center' film framing doesn't always look good. So it is a trade off...but I think more and more DPs are just "shooting for film" anymore because more and more the final product is going to be seen in either 16:9 or 4:3 letterboxed.

Barry_Green wrote on 1/12/2005, 12:12 PM

Also consider the global market, if that's of interest to you.

In Europe, 16:9 is very common, accounting for around 50% of the television-equipped homes, and I believe broadcasters require 16:9 masters. In the US, 16:9 accounts for maybe 10% of US television homes, and all broadcasts are still in 4:3 (except for the HD broadcasts, all HD broadcasting in the US is 16:9).

In Japan, HD is very popular. In the US, HD is present in maybe 7% of homes. In Europe, HD is not really even on the map yet.

Count on 4:3 SD continuing to be the majority in the US for several years to come. In the immediate future, 16:9 will continue to gain market share (a visit to Circuit City will show that a good half the TV's on display for sale are 16:9, so many new-TV purchases will be 16:9, but it'll be a while before they begin to displace the existing base... there are about 108 million TV households in the US, and most of those have two to four TV's).