OT:PS3 2008+ sales forecast

apit34356 wrote on 2/15/2008, 12:21 PM

more good news for a "failed" product ;-)

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PS3 won't beat Wii until 2011, forecasts analyst

By James Sherwood
15th February 2008 12:09 GMT

This year will see another gruelling sales showdown between the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 as they battle it for hardcore gamers' cash. However, the PS3 is eventually expected to become the dominant console.

Market watcher iSuppli this week predicted that the PS3 will sell 10m units globally during 2008, helping to put it far ahead of the analyst’s 7.5m sales figure forecast for the Xbox 360 this year. iSuppli also predicted that by 2011, the PS3 will have a global installed base of around 38.4m consoles, compared to just 32.3m units for the Xbox 360.

However, both units will face stiff competition from the mighty Wii. iSuppli believes that the console’s strength lies in its broad mass-market appeal, while the Xbox 360 and PS3 are aimed at hardcore gamers.

iSuppli predicts that, by 2011, the Wii will be in second place with an overall 34.8 per cent market share. The PS3 will be triumphant with 35.4 per cent, while the Xbox 360 will trail into third place with a 29.8 per cent share.

Console Installed Base Totals
iSuppli console installed base forecast

http://regmedia.co.uk/2008/02/15/isuppli_consoles_1.png
Totals in millions of consoles
Source: iSuppli

The PS3's trajectory over the coming years is entirely upward, but both the Wii and the Xbox 360 will peak in 2010, with their installed base totals falling after that, iSuppli indicated.

That's presumably a result of the arrival of future-generation consoles but also because by that point more people will be chucking out old machines than there are latecomers buying new ones.

The Wii's installed base will this year exceed that of the 360, but it'll take the PS3 two more years to do the same - which is good news for Microsoft.
Related stories
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* Xbox 360 console failure rate forecast at 16.4%
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* Wii predicted to win 2008 sales race
* Satin PS3 to launch in Japan
* Blu-ray winning in Europe
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Sony won't surpass Nintendo by the same measure until 2011, and then only by a small margin. So the Wii is going to enjoy a substantially bigger installed base than its rivals for the next three years.

Recent figures from rival analyst NPD revealed that January’s US video game sales were $1.18bn, but that the PS3 only managed to place one title within the top ten list of games: Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare. It sold 140,000 copies in the US last month. However, games on the Wii and Xbox 360 dominated the chart, with the latter accounting for 330,900 copies of Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare.

This week, UK market watcher Chart Track published figures showing the PS3 had surpassed the 1m sales mark in 46 weeks. However, the Wii managed it in just 38 weeks
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Comments

4eyes wrote on 2/15/2008, 5:50 PM
I have both, the Xbox360 is right on top for playing games.
Actually I think the Xbox360 is ahead with all the accessories, add-ons and interactive play modes.

They are Both Winners when it comes to playing games.
TheHappyFriar wrote on 2/15/2008, 6:52 PM
so what they article says is that if the 360 & wii STAY AS THEY ARE & everybody who wants one owns one, they'll go buy a PS3 because they have $$ to burn.

Nintendo has a good history of releasing improved versions of their products. Same thing was said about the PSP. DS, which is inferior IN EVERY WAY still outsells.

By 2011 odds are Wii will be HD compatible, have a built in HD & will be Wii 2. While PS3 will be PS3, just like the PS2 brand new is the same basic unit as 6 years ago.
apit34356 wrote on 2/15/2008, 8:53 PM
"By 2011 odds are Wii will be HD compatible, have a built in HD & will be Wii 2. While PS3 will be PS3, just like the PS2 brand new is the same basic unit as 6 years ago."
Well, by late 2008, 3D space movement, will be an option available for X360 and PS3 if they can find good enough games that will support the intro of the new controllers. X360 is already pushed hard, they will have to think it out more---- power management. The X360 is starting too wear thin for some gamers because of the "red circle of death", over 3 three weeks returns..... at first, they would just buy a replacement, then the new MS return policy, but then that appears to be failing by excess volume. But MS is not actually fixing the units with an improvement. So gamers are seeing the same failures...... Halo3 fans are royal but are growing tired. Either MS is milking this like the Big Iron days or they are struggling to complete a new box ie X370 before the market dies----
deusx wrote on 2/16/2008, 1:30 AM
I think this is completely off.

By this coming xmass PS3 will be ahead of xbox360 which is basically already a dead console. It only lives in the US ( on life support ), in Japan it's nonexistant, in Europe won't do much better either.

Prices for PS3 are already reaching resonable levels, by xmas games will be out ( good and exclusive ones ). You'd have to be a little crazy to consider buying xbox right now, unless you have enough money to buy all of the consoles and don't really care about its future.
TheHappyFriar wrote on 2/16/2008, 7:30 AM
You'd have to be a little crazy to consider buying xbox right now, unless you have enough money to buy all of the consoles and don't really care about its future.

console players care about two things (after the initial release): 1) game currently out for it & 2) games that are coming out. Right now PS3 & 360 are pretty much identical in releases, both have some exclusives. Nearly every PC dev is now requiring 360 controller support. The 360 & PC are starting to compliment each other (anyone can make 360 games on their PC & the 360 equipment works just fine on PC). Odds are we'll see a new 360 by 2011, or (more likely) one will already be announced for 2012/13. Gamers will be saying "Man, don't buy a Wii/PS3, the new X-Box is coming out, it will be awesome!" That's how those things work (DS & Wii were the exception, but they appeal to a wider audience. Wii most likely has ~10 million "hard core" gamers woldwide & the rest are casual game fans. That's a lot of people).

The PS3, as far as majority of console gamers are concerned, is a Blue Ray player with benefits. That's it. Period. The Wii has turned even people who said "man, I'll only ever play PC games" in to Wii fans. I know. I've talked to many of them (say I had a Wii, they'd say it's kiddie crap. 6 months later they have one & say it's the best thing since 256 color for PC's).
blink3times wrote on 2/16/2008, 8:02 AM
A t work I quite often have to create "10 year plans" for budgeting purposes.... but in practice it's a pretty silly notion because everybody that has to do these things, clearly understands that the accuracy of the plan goes straight out the window after the 8 month to 1 year mark..
Houston Haynes wrote on 2/16/2008, 9:24 PM
This is a pretty odd article - touting that in 3 years it will still be roughly a 3-way split.

YIPPEE!!

If it was 60-20-20 then OK, but this article just isn't news.

Developers are still learning to exploit the PS3 platform. There are some SDKs that are *just* now coming out for ray tracing and light positioning where the Cell processor is supposed to excel, so we'll see if the PS3 continues to have legs while the XBOX hits it's 20-mile wall.

I thought that was always the rag on PS3 and XBOX360 - that the PS3 had processing headroom to expand into because it was a bear to implement, and that the XBOX looked better *now* because of the current generation of development/platform tools were more robust - but - that it was always running closer to the rail, and therefore was more prone to runtime failure and the shelf-life of the physical platform would be shorter because of lower meantime to failure.

Quite frankly, with the extension of Microsoft's blanket warranty for the XBOX, and everyone saying that the best titles have yet to come for PS3, I can't see anything that contradicts the early "read" on the long-term prospects of these two platforms.

Footnote: Everyone should not miss the fact that the Playstation *2* was *still* the hottest selling console this past Chistmas season, so if you're going to be poo-pooing Sony's ability to deliver a long-term gaming platform, you might want to check your history books.
deusx wrote on 2/17/2008, 8:35 AM
>>>Right now PS3 & 360 are pretty much identical in releases, both have some exclusives. <<<

That's now, xmas is almost a year way.

By then we'll finally see real power of PS3, and the price will be lower. So, I suspect sales will be better than what this article predicts.

Xbox360 is already an old console. It's been around almost 2 years longer than PS3 and it still sold less than PS2 this past xmas.

Sony has nothing to worry about, and even though xbox360 may still be fun, if you're buyimng just one console PS3 is the one. I agree Wii is good, but that's Nintendo, they are in a class of their own, they always have their own exclusives. Ideally Wii now, and PS3 by xmas when games finally arrive.

Anyway, the point is that xbox360 was never in contention, just like HD-DVD never was. They had their short run, Sony still owns about 60% of the market anyway, and it will only get worse for xbox.