Touched on in another thread, 2006 is shaping up to be hopefully a very promising year in the multimedia/video world.
2006 is the year when we will see the first MacTel machines that will be capable of running not only OSX and Mac software, but Windows code bases as well in a dual boot enviornment. One thing for sure is that we wont be quick to see major price drops any time soon. Still, one must admit that having the ability to dual boot between Mac OSX and Windows XP/Vista will be a treat and its about time that Apple give their users more for their money than just over priced hardware. For those that want to give FCP a try, this is a no brainer. Perhaps this move will inspire all the major NLEs to work together to find a way to allow projects to be switched and used in other NLEs more stabily.
Just as last year, the big buzz word was HD. We saw many announcements from companys offering HDV cameras, HD content, to NLEs playing catch up with Vegas and offering HDV editing.I am willing to bet that HD will once again be the buzz word of 2006 only on a much much larger scale.
The obvious thing that 2006 will be the long awaited yet over hyped Blu Ray and HD-DVD. Over hyped in the sense that we keep hearing about the technology and studios and companies supporting it, but for someone who doesnt own a multimillion dollar corporation, getting a look at one of the devices and the content on the discs, it is borderline vaporware. The big battle this year will be between who can actually get consumer devices out first. While HD-DVD lacks the space that Blu Ray offers, it is more than made up from H.264 AVC and VC-1 codecs.
Speaking of H.264 AVC and VC-1, that in itself positions itself as a battle. While both codecs are already supported in both camps, the various developers of H.264 AVC and its companies will wage war against MS and its VC-1 codec. Who will win out? Both offer excellent quality so royalties may play a major role in companies adoptions to authoring. We shall see.
I expect huge things this year for NLEs and the upcoming HD craze. Vegas has always been a front runner on the cutting edge when it supports new technologies. I remember when Vegas was the first and to my knowledge, the ONLY NLE that supported Vorbis audio. Companies like Avid and Adobe, have sat quietly in the past while Vegas paved the way. Nonetheless, will Sony be the first out of the gate to support Hi Def authoring with its Vegas7/DVDA4 line? My sources say, unfortunately, NO. Adobe is heavily rumored to be launching a total complete Hi Def authoring solution early in 2006. Not fear though, once Adobe releases thier collection, surely it will be a long time before any new and old bugs are fixed from previous versions. However, like HD-DVD and Blu Ray, first to market might be enough to provde the advantage even if only temporary.
I also expect 2006 to not only bring HD set tops and players but even more portable devices. The PSP and Ipod created the "video to go" craze that doesnt seem to be ending any time in the future. I expect Sony to either release a bigger PSP with a larger screen and to finally unlock the entire resolution and even add a hard drive to combat Apple's onslaught. Apple is sure to not only offer bigger screens but larger hard drives as well.
I think 2006 could possibly be the death of MiniDV/SD editing. Sony offered lower priced HDV cameras which should only come down in price through the year and possibly position itself as a must have Christmas gift of 2006. While companies like Canon and Pansonic finally enter the mix, it still looks to be 2-3 years before they can begin to compete with Sony on the consumer HDV level.
I also expect piracy to continue at alarming rates. Directly in its crosshairs will be the proection schemes of the new HD devices. If any of the backers of the technologies were smart, they would hire DVD John and pay him a crap load of money so he doesnt bust their protection in the first couple weeks or months. Otherwise, all this talk of managed and protected content was for nothing leaving consumers footing the bills for companies and their failures to succeed in winning an unwinnable war.
WRT to online content, I believe 2006 holds the serious possiblities that Indy filmers focus on the net for a main means of distribution. Apple is positioning itself to sell videos of music and TV shows and one can be sure that movies arent that far behind. But for your indy filmers, competing with the big boys (studios) will prove to be quite as difficult and will turn to the net to make their sales. The porn industry has proven that there is a demand for online delivery of content, abeit a controversial and lack of video quality one. With faster pipes to the net in every household, IPTV and the like will surely enjoy increase use and exposure.
I personally think by next Chrstimas, HD sets will be so saturated in the market, that we will see them for $200-$300. Maybe thats too optimistic but consumers will have to have something to lay their new HD content that will surely be marketed and shoved down their throats this year. The smartest thing a company could do right now would be to flood the marketplace with lower cost items to gain as much marketshare as you can.
While I am sure there are many other things I have overlooked or missed, 2006 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting years for multimedia. Whether it be on the web, cell phones, portable players, or set top players, their will be a major need for content and that definitely bodes well for all in the video/entertainment industry.
Happy New Year and Video Editing in 2006.
P.S. I reserve the right to be wrong on some or all of my predicitons but I'll bet I am right more than I am wrong. :)
2006 is the year when we will see the first MacTel machines that will be capable of running not only OSX and Mac software, but Windows code bases as well in a dual boot enviornment. One thing for sure is that we wont be quick to see major price drops any time soon. Still, one must admit that having the ability to dual boot between Mac OSX and Windows XP/Vista will be a treat and its about time that Apple give their users more for their money than just over priced hardware. For those that want to give FCP a try, this is a no brainer. Perhaps this move will inspire all the major NLEs to work together to find a way to allow projects to be switched and used in other NLEs more stabily.
Just as last year, the big buzz word was HD. We saw many announcements from companys offering HDV cameras, HD content, to NLEs playing catch up with Vegas and offering HDV editing.I am willing to bet that HD will once again be the buzz word of 2006 only on a much much larger scale.
The obvious thing that 2006 will be the long awaited yet over hyped Blu Ray and HD-DVD. Over hyped in the sense that we keep hearing about the technology and studios and companies supporting it, but for someone who doesnt own a multimillion dollar corporation, getting a look at one of the devices and the content on the discs, it is borderline vaporware. The big battle this year will be between who can actually get consumer devices out first. While HD-DVD lacks the space that Blu Ray offers, it is more than made up from H.264 AVC and VC-1 codecs.
Speaking of H.264 AVC and VC-1, that in itself positions itself as a battle. While both codecs are already supported in both camps, the various developers of H.264 AVC and its companies will wage war against MS and its VC-1 codec. Who will win out? Both offer excellent quality so royalties may play a major role in companies adoptions to authoring. We shall see.
I expect huge things this year for NLEs and the upcoming HD craze. Vegas has always been a front runner on the cutting edge when it supports new technologies. I remember when Vegas was the first and to my knowledge, the ONLY NLE that supported Vorbis audio. Companies like Avid and Adobe, have sat quietly in the past while Vegas paved the way. Nonetheless, will Sony be the first out of the gate to support Hi Def authoring with its Vegas7/DVDA4 line? My sources say, unfortunately, NO. Adobe is heavily rumored to be launching a total complete Hi Def authoring solution early in 2006. Not fear though, once Adobe releases thier collection, surely it will be a long time before any new and old bugs are fixed from previous versions. However, like HD-DVD and Blu Ray, first to market might be enough to provde the advantage even if only temporary.
I also expect 2006 to not only bring HD set tops and players but even more portable devices. The PSP and Ipod created the "video to go" craze that doesnt seem to be ending any time in the future. I expect Sony to either release a bigger PSP with a larger screen and to finally unlock the entire resolution and even add a hard drive to combat Apple's onslaught. Apple is sure to not only offer bigger screens but larger hard drives as well.
I think 2006 could possibly be the death of MiniDV/SD editing. Sony offered lower priced HDV cameras which should only come down in price through the year and possibly position itself as a must have Christmas gift of 2006. While companies like Canon and Pansonic finally enter the mix, it still looks to be 2-3 years before they can begin to compete with Sony on the consumer HDV level.
I also expect piracy to continue at alarming rates. Directly in its crosshairs will be the proection schemes of the new HD devices. If any of the backers of the technologies were smart, they would hire DVD John and pay him a crap load of money so he doesnt bust their protection in the first couple weeks or months. Otherwise, all this talk of managed and protected content was for nothing leaving consumers footing the bills for companies and their failures to succeed in winning an unwinnable war.
WRT to online content, I believe 2006 holds the serious possiblities that Indy filmers focus on the net for a main means of distribution. Apple is positioning itself to sell videos of music and TV shows and one can be sure that movies arent that far behind. But for your indy filmers, competing with the big boys (studios) will prove to be quite as difficult and will turn to the net to make their sales. The porn industry has proven that there is a demand for online delivery of content, abeit a controversial and lack of video quality one. With faster pipes to the net in every household, IPTV and the like will surely enjoy increase use and exposure.
I personally think by next Chrstimas, HD sets will be so saturated in the market, that we will see them for $200-$300. Maybe thats too optimistic but consumers will have to have something to lay their new HD content that will surely be marketed and shoved down their throats this year. The smartest thing a company could do right now would be to flood the marketplace with lower cost items to gain as much marketshare as you can.
While I am sure there are many other things I have overlooked or missed, 2006 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting years for multimedia. Whether it be on the web, cell phones, portable players, or set top players, their will be a major need for content and that definitely bodes well for all in the video/entertainment industry.
Happy New Year and Video Editing in 2006.
P.S. I reserve the right to be wrong on some or all of my predicitons but I'll bet I am right more than I am wrong. :)