[I]"What's to stop Adobe from upping their Cloud fees because they know the user community is reliant on their software."[/I]

Nothing other than the risk of losing customers to the competition.

The real issue facing software houses is how to maintain a revenue stream so they can a) continue to develop the product and b) continue to provide support.

a) Is increasingly a bit of a red herring. A lot of software is now so mature it's hard to find new features to add to convince users to pay for upgrades.

b) is the most compelling justification in my opinion.

Personally I'm more concerned by the move to having to rent the software running in cameras.


Bob.

"Cloud" is just a buzzword in this case. It's a subscription business model and that's all.

> "a) Is increasingly a bit of a red herring. A lot of software is now so mature it's hard to find new features to add to convince users to pay for upgrades."

Bob, I think you nailed it. I get the impression that a lot of people (like myself) were skipping upgrades for lack of compelling new features. I bought CS2, skipped 3 and bought CS4, skipped 5 and bough CS6. I won't be able to do that anymore.

Adobe sent out a survey which I took several weeks ago where they asked questions about "what if our software was only available by subscription" and I answered that I would not buy it, but obviously I was in the minority because they went ahead and did it.

The up-side of this model is that the upgrades for Creative Suite where about $600/yr and Creative Cloud subscription is $600/yr but you get the whole Master Suite for that price so it's a good deal for customers who always upgrade every year because now you will get more software for the same price (assuming you would use the additional software). I didn't upgrade every year so not so good for me and I guess a lot of you.

The other good thing about this is that Adobe no longer needs to wait until they have enough new features to justify the upgrade price to release them. If, for example, After Effects CS7 would have had 4 new major features, Adobe can now release a new major features every 3 months instead of waiting until they are all complete at the end of the year. This means customers get features sooner. It also means if a defect gets fixed in a new version because it requires a redesign, you don't have to complain about buying a new version just to get a bug fix... you get everything all the time for one flat fee. This also helps business predict their annual software expenses (although you pretty much could guess this already). Once again, it doesn't help the single person who didn't upgrade every year but we must be in the minority.

Actually, this is not a bad deal for people who only use one Adobe product. Here's why:

Photoshop CS6 cost $600 to buy. With Creative Cloud you would pay $240/yr (single licenses are $19.95/mo). It would take you 2.5 years of Creative Cloud subscription to equal the purchase price of Photoshop CS6. In 2.5 years with your Photoshop CS6 purchase you will have an old piece of software. With Creative Cloud you would have the equivalent of the latest CS8 and not paid a penny more than CS6. So it's about the same as upgrading every other release.

Now run the same scenario with After Effects. After Effects CS6 cost $900! The same $19/mo applies. It would take you 3.75 years of Creative Cloud subscriptions to equal $900!!! How many of you have seen a plug-in that you wanted to use that only worked with After Effects? Now you can buy After Effects for $240 a year and use that new plug-in instead of not being able to afford it.

So... this is actually a good deal for people who only use one product like Photoshop or After Effects. The only down side is the software stops working if you stop the subscription. This is what I think everyone is apposed to. It's a frightening concept that you will have projects that you can no longer use if you don't keep paying. What Adobe needs is an opt-out plan to keep your last version working if you decide to quit.

BTW, I already do something similar with TechSmith Camtasia. I purchase the maintenance agreement which for $79 gets me the latest new version for free every year. So instead of pay $99 every year to upgrade Camtasia, I pay $79 by pre-paying the maintenance agreement. It's a good model for the software that you use every day. Not so good for casual users. I would have rather a model like TechSmith than Adobe because I can continue to use the last version I purchased indefinitely.

(Note: edited to correct some of my numbers)

~jr

I am very frugal. I am constantly looking for sales, discounts and coupons. Between Black Friday and Christmas there are usually great deals on software that I will take advantage of. When new versions of software are released, there is often an introductory sale. These are the deals I look for and purchase. A subscription may be competitive with the full retail price, but it isn't remotely competitive smith the way I buy software.

Changing business models requires some degree of established good will and trust between vendor and customers.

About a decade ago, Waves (audio plug-ins) switched models from the familiar "annual upgrade" model to a somewhat friendlier "annual subscription" model (friendlier in that if a customer missed an annual payment, the customer's existing license and version continued to function, but the customer received no support, upgrades or bug fixes. There was no "cloud" back then)

What happened next is that Waves subsequently paid little attention to its existing products and focused on new plug-ins that were of course not included in existing products and required the customer to purchase new products and new annual renewals.

From my perspective, their strategy seemed to one of offering less product for more money. Despite their obvious quality, they lost my business.

The "cloud" feature may make Adobe's scenario different, but their relative monoply on some products may tempt them to behave badly.

>So... this is actually a good deal for people who only use one product like Photoshop or After Effects. The only down side is the software stops working if you stop the subscription. This is what I think everyone is apposed to. It's a frightening concept that you will have projects that you can no longer use if you don't keep paying. What Adobe needs is an opt-out plan to keep your last version working if you decide to quit.

JR, this is a very good point. I would actually prefer the new subscription model if they gave you this option. Or alternatively, let you convert to a "per use" model where you could turn it on for a week for say $10.

/jerry

JR said:
[I]"you get the whole Master Suite for that price"[/I]

A very good point. That suite is worth around $5,000.
Obviously very few will use all of it, myself included but several times I've used AI, just to prep freebie AI files for AE and a couple of times because clients sent me AI files of logos etc. Only once could I have used InDesign and no way the job could have justified the cost of it. I got it done well within the capabilities of Publisher however none of the local printers were happy working from Publisher files.

With this arrangement all of us have access to everything so we can be on an equal footing to the big media houses. Sure we're never going to have all the skills to use all those programs but at least we can open and modify files from any of them without having to beg them for an etched PNG or whatever.

Bob.

Well, I can see plenty of amateur film makers deserting Adobe in favour of Vegas.

Thinking of the members of the film makers club I belong to, many of whom use Premiere or Premiere Pro, as they begin to upgrade their cameras from tape to media-card based models, or as they upgrade their OS, so they will need newer versions of Premiere. But with a subscription-only model, they will look for an alternative NLE. They will want something quick and easy to learn.

Enter Vegas.

This could be great news for SCS (if only those lingering bugs could be ironed out.)

I have no problem with the idea. Adobe can do what they want with their own product(s). Consumers have a choice and can go with a different vendor if they wish.

Furthermore, it looks like all that is really different is that Adobe is insisting that the user pay continuing fees and then log in twice a year in order to keep their Adobe product operable on their PC. I'm sure this restriction will be easy to break by software hackers, so those users who are not particularly bothered by using modified software will be able to do so without the monthly payments.

>Well, I can see plenty of amateur film makers deserting Adobe in favour of Vegas.

That is probably true. There may also be a booming market on Ebay for old versions of Adobe products.

/jerry

I noticed today that Adobe was offering a year of CC to CS6 licensees for 19.95/month, so I checked what it'd cost us with our CS4 licenses and it's be 29.95/month.

The short story, though, is that we'd save a lot more money by not upgrading at all. None of our clients are asking for specific versions of files, in fact they only need finished files rather than source files. So we could just stand pat.

The issue, from my point of view, is in hiring freelancers. For some projects I really DO want the source files and so we need to make a version requirement as to what type of source file they deliver to us. If you can't give me a CS4 .FLA file then we'll need to find someone else for the job.

Eventually this will turn around where we can't find a freelancer who can provide CS4 sources and so we need to upgrade, but for the time being we have no requirement from our clients to upgrade so it's much cheaper to wait a few years.

I find that clients drive us to keep up with MS office much more than with Adobe products.

For my own uses, I might be more inclined to subscribe if I could save as far back as CS4, and if the few apps I know could be better (Flash and Fireworks) were really that much better.

Rob

How will the plugin model work with CC? You buy plugins as always, host them locally, and upgrade when...Adobe upgrades CC programs? Like I said earlier, from Adobe's standpoint this is genius. I just think a lot of users would prefer to have at least the option to buy a perpetual version, even if it were at a premium.

I won't argue that the price as promoted now could be a deal in some situations - but I'm used to the option to either rent or buy anything I want to use. Being forced into a tenant situation doesn't appeal to me at any level.

You can also look at it as if this programs crashes a lot and you don't like it then your not out a lot of money. Also this will make adobe products work perfect or no one will buy in to it.

Adobe is just the beginning. I see a much darker future when others including MS will charge you monthly for their OS once it is cloud based too. The computer experience will be like paying your utility bill; if you don't pay you cant use it and we all will be at their mercy and at the ISP's mercy too; behold there is a power outage and your laptop's software needs updating on that day... murphy's law comes to my mind. I can only hope some clever government regulation will take care of it and protect the end user from such black mailing.

Linux is a nice alternative.

It only is if Vegas runs on it and Sony doesn't go the same route as Adobe.

In the UK membership costs £46.88 per month after the 1st years discount for existing qualifying owners.

Thats $72 !!!!!

http://www.adobe.com/uk/products/creativecloud/buying-guide.html

I use Photoshop CS6 and Dreamweaver CS6 extensively and I upgraded them from CS4 just before Adobe's last deadline a few weeks ago.

Hopefully these will be usable for some time to come but comments like "your software won't stop working" miss the point and really are not helpful.

For example Photoshop is regularly updated to enable it to process files from new cameras in Camera RAW. Presumably these updates will no longer be available for outright owners. And that will bite very soon.

I moved away from Microsoft Office many years ago because of their (in my opinion) gouging, and I now use the free Open Office suite. No compromises what so ever:

http://www.openoffice.org/

I now anticipate doing likewise in due course with Photoshop and with Dreamweaver. Adobe's move will be a huge spur to innovation in the open source community.

Already Gimp is a viable alternative to Photoshop for many mainstream uses:

http://www.gimp.org/

And Aptana is a well respected open source alternative to Dreamweaver:

http://www.aptana.com/

This is a suicide note from Adobe. You will not be needed if you take your customers for granted. You will become irrelevant.

Pete

Adobe need to get their pricing sorted: in Australia for one of their (high-end) products it is cheaper to purchase a return air ticket to USA and purchase there than it is to purchase locally! No doubt they will attempt to continue this wacky & unfair pricing policy in the Cloud. It was USA who wanted a 'level playing field' in the global economy, but their companies seem to be unwilling to participate.

You can also look at it as if this programs crashes a lot and you don't like it then your not out a lot of money. Also this will make adobe products work perfect or no one will buy in to it.

Not so sure about this. It looks to me like the cloud subscriptions come with one year commitments. You can bail out within 30 days for a full refund or after 30 days for a 50% refund. I assume that there's no refund after a certain point.

In my experience All the adobe apps I've used have been stable enough. Photoshop has always been rock solid for me. The only thing we've had bad experiences with was Premiere, and that was CS2+hardware acceleration.

Well, I rarely use my CS6 suite - and would have held off for probably a couple of releases before buying again - but now may never do it. I hate the idea of being tied into monthly payments for software. Maybe for a house, or a car....

For those Vegas Pro Bootcamp users here with a Mac, who are looking for Photoshop alternatives, I HIGHLY recommend Pixelmator:

http://www.pixelmator.com

I actually prefer Pixelmator to Photoshop - it's much quicker and more intuitive - and is getting more powerful with each update.

Remember vegas uses, this is where Hitfilm Ultimate 2 comes in. I have a feeling the people at Hitfilm as salivating at the prospect of AE being cloud based only. While Hitfilm Ultimate 2 is not as powerful, it is cheaper, and can still pull off a ton of what AE can do, and in some cases a lot easier. I have a feeling this will be a big window of opportunity for Hitfilm Ultimate 2 to gain some more customers, and since it works well with Vegas (finally got it working) the workflow is even easier.

I for one will not be tied to a year contract on anything. Though I still think adobe will release a watered down version of things like photoshop elements that people can buy. That is the way they will widen their market perhaps/

>For example Photoshop is regularly updated to enable it to process files from new cameras in Camera RAW. Presumably these updates will no longer be available for outright owners. And that will bite very soon.

I already ran into this with my GH3. It's RAW format is not supported by my CS5 Adobe products and they will never add this profile to any pre-CS6 product. I ended up updating just Photoshop, but anyone shooting RAW photographs is potentially one camera away from obsolescence without a subscription.