In my industry (personal computer software), Comdex was de rigueur for almost two decades (I think I went to twenty in a row -- including the spring installment).

Comdex folded several years ago. Despite that, CES continues to expand, so I don't think that trade shows as a species are doomed to extinction.

However, you have to look at the core of what the trade show is about. Comdex was a show for computer dealers (Comdex was actually an acronym for Computer Dealers Exposition). When computer dealers (e.g., Computerland) more or less ceased to exist, the show lost much of its reason for existence.

NAB, of course, is also an acronym (National Association of Broadcasters). And guess what? Broadcasting is in a tailspin that is probably terminal. Don't get me wrong, we will all receive content from commercial enterprises, just as we can still buy computers even after computer dealers pretty much went away. However, the three letter networks will probably not be able to survive in their current form for more than a decade, and probably less. While the reasons are different, they are just a few years behind the music industry which is also violently changing.

So, I expect that NAB will probably go the way of Comdex sometime in the next eight years.

Footnotes:

Apple pulled out of Comdex about eight years before it went under.

Comdex closed in 2004, but the NY Times ran a story in 1998 saying that even though the crowds were still huge, "But this year, it seems as if everything at Comdex is shrinking, except for the hotels, room rates and cab lines. Many of the bigger names in the computer industry have pulled out of Comdex or reduced their presence to save money and avoid being lost in the crowd. "

What we're seeing is the online retailing trend. Much like any store 10 - 15 years ago, you either had to go in personally and see the product or get the catalog / brochure. NAB was just that. Now with the online presence that every large company has, it's easier take the money and channel it to where your demographic is. Online shopping and advertising is bigger and bigger each year. Makes sense that it's not so important to go and "see" the product in person any longer, unless it's a custom demo.

I wasn't surprised at Avid bailing but with Apple bailing, it really points to where their demographic is, and it appears as though it's the average consumer now, not just the media professional. $5 million can go a long way to reach joe consumer as opposed to the glitz and glamour of the NAB presence which is really just glitz and glamour. I can't see Apple really selling that much product as a result of NAB.

Out of most of the exhibitors though, I'll miss walking through both Avid and Apple's booths. Bottom line is they were just fun.

cheno

it's official, Apple has pulled out of NAB

Do they really need to be a NAB?

They're doing juuuuust fine without it. But more to the point, these operations are beginning to ask themselves if there are better ways to spend that 5M worth of advertising dollars. My guess is yes.

Avid said they thought they would get more bang for the buck visiting customers instead.

...with Apple bailing, it really points to where their demographic is, and it appears as though it's the average consumer now, not just the media professional.

That is not so anymore than it is for Avid. Apple has made huge inroads in the broadcast market, and Avid realized that they could not compete on the showroom floor against anything from Apple.

Apple probably figured that they would sell just as many Final Cut Servers etc. for broadcast whether they went to NAB or not, so why blow all that money in a soon forgotten spring week?

Btw, it's gotta be waaay more than $5 million by the time the last expense has been paid.

Like DSE said, this was not unexpected. Apple big dollars are more from ipods, itunes, iphone (if steve wins), then general computer+apps. NAB is not a money generator for Apple vs. Sony, etc who have serious gear for the market. Now, if Sony Boardcast group refuse to show, that would be a bad sign for NAB. That 5M will be used probably in the iphone and DL's of movies push.

But remember, now with Steve on Disney's board, he has more influence when talking to people about NAB market issues that may concern Apple. With ABC in the Disney lineup, Steve is in the cat-seat now compared to before Pilar was absorbed.

So what? As long as the VASST Vegas party is there.

It's the new NAB 10% rule

Any software shown has to be able to run on at least 10% of machines in the wild, and your sales pich cannot have more than 10% of bullshit in it.

Needless to say, both AVID and Apple were disqualified immediately, on both counts.

Apple's budget for NAB 2007 was just slightly over 5M, and it's not valid to assume 08' would be much more. In fact, due to significant changes in the union and supporting agencies at the NAB show, it may well be less.
To answer the question "Does there need to be an NAB?" Of course. There is so much more that happens at NAB's NLE and camera areas, they're pissant compared to the actual broadcast technology areas like satellites, storage, support, development, meetings of the various boards, etc.
Comdex is a pseudo-fair comparison, but not quite. NAB will be with us for quite a long time to come. I believe there are two significant factors at play here;
Apple wanted a powerplay with NAB
Apple isn't catering to the pro market like they once were. They've saturated much of the market. Their sales aren't growing like they once were.
They could be smart, or they could be Discreet.

They could be smart, or they could be Discreet.

Ouch.

How Autodesk could be so full of themselves that they failed to see the value of the Discreet name I may never understand. And to add insult to injury they just about abandoned their Combustion product for years, and responded to support requests with, "Well, tough noogie!"

Contrast that with the Grass Valley name that still lives on, even though they are owned by Thompson. Now that's real understanding and appreciation of a name that took a long time to build up.

It has to be true that with nearly a million FCP licenses, Apple has already picked over the low hanging fruit (pro users who got high blood pressure from dealing with Avid's attitude), and the pro market has become quite mature.

Still, they're selling high end hardware and stuff like Final Cut Server, etc., so this market is treating them well.