I'm with you happyfriar.
I think we all got the message now!

"i'm getting pretty sick of all the "Blue Ray vs HDDVD, BD wins" posts around here."

If you're depressed by these postings, I have a call number for a suicidal center in Pakistan, of course, they ask a lot of questions like, " Can you drive a truck?", Oh, don't be surprise if they act excited if you answer "yes" or "I'm an HD DVD fan" ;-)

TheHappyFrair, I just "discovered" your youtube postings. Do like using youtube?

While I am happy we have one format, has anyone else seen the licensing fees per disc for BD? Needless to say, BD wins, indie filmers will lose. $2500-$3000 just to license WITHOUT AACS. Thats another $1500+.

While I am happy we have one format, has anyone else seen the licensing fees per disc for BD? Needless to say, BD wins, indie filmers will lose. $2500-$3000 just to license WITHOUT AACS. Thats another $1500+.


And this is exactly what's making me so nervous. Everybody's running around with this "Blu Ray wins!!" stuff.... and yet it remains to be seen if people like us (in the video editing world) have won..... or actually lost.. Will REAL bdmv authored disks be free to create.... or will it cost us.... and how much??

Let's just remember here that the wonderfully awful thing about Blu ray (unlike HD DVD) is that it's an unfinished format with no set minimum standard. This can either work to OUR advantage.... or to THEIRS. My bet is that it will be to THEIRS.

Soooo,

yes.... Blu ray certainly has won.... but have we?

OK Blink, here's another prediction and another opportunity for you to say "I told you so" if I'm wrong:

We'll be able to author BR discs just as we now do with DVD (in terms of the way fees and things work). So I believe that in DVD Architect 5 (if it'll still be called that) we'll be able to do Blu-Ray as well as DVD, and you won't have to bother with any fees. Fees would be there if you mass-produced a disc, just like they do now for DVD and Dolby.

So there you go.

Hey wait a minute, can't Vegas already write BR discs? Has anyone had to pay to do that? Nope. What makes you think Architect will be any different?

Blu-Ray has one... but you lost.

Let's just remember here that the wonderfully awful thing about Blu ray (unlike HD DVD) is that it's an unfinished format with no set minimum standard.

Please provide unquestionable, undeniable proof that HD DVD was a finished standard, that they never intended on improving upon the original specs at any point in time, never intended to alter DRM plans, regional coding, other software support for special features, nor larger/smaller disc sizes, capacities, playback speeds, or any other alteration to the format at any time.

Why does "their advantage" absolutely have to be diametrically opposed to "our advantage?"

And no...creating "real" BDMV won't be free, any more than creating a DVD is free.
How many SD discs did you send to the replicator in 2007? How many BD discs did you send to the replicator in 2007?

Ok, I say we just let there be one thread that can grow to obscene length and then gets un-readable and then gets re-invented like happens with copyright.

As far as all these concerns with licensing fees etc... etc..., the fact is that it will end up sorting itself out. If the restrictions placed on it are too crazy then they'll probably just find it gets ignored and they don't get the money, or they'll set it at a reasonable level, or they'll pass the expense along to the consumer and they'll find that the consumer would much rather do direct download and not pay all that money for an HD version of their video. ( and I say that those that create something deserve to make money from it, or those savy enough to buy something and then re-sell it are also deserving of money).

So please, enough with these rub it in your face threads etc... or even, I'm excited about Blu-Ray and I'm not even trying to rub it in anyone's face. It's clearly causing some hard feelings with some that were hoping for one medium or the other, or both to continue creating competition.

that's all I have to say about that

Dave

"And no...creating "real" BDMV won't be free, any more than creating a DVD is free."

As someone whose made quite a few DVDs and duplicated around 10,000 between me and a few of my associates it sure hasn't cost us anything other than lots of blank media, duplicators and ink.

We've also had signficantly more than that replicated and at prices under 90c per disk I doubt anyones paying anyone any fees on those either.

Now those disks can be as good as anything Hollywood has authored, despite our obviously crappy content. So no I don't get what you're saying at all. And it gets worse. Forget about the licencing fees. The setup costs for BD are much higher than they are for SD DVDs. The impact of this is that whereas the break even point for duplication / replication is around 500 for SD DVDs it's going to way higher for BD. I believe the setup costs for HD DVD were around the same as they are for SD DVD. Now this is not a new revelation. The local replication houses were shouting long and loud about this for a long time. Perhaps a pity no one took the time to listen.

We're being expected to deliver HD for the same price as SD. That's the clients epxectations, I recall even you saying it doesn't cost any more to shoot HD than SD and that's true enough. What's never been factored in correctly is the cost of delivering that content on a shiny disk. If we can deliver SD at $1.00 per copy given that HD is 4 times the pixels a figure of $4 per disk would probably meet clients expectations. If there's anyway to get 500 BD disks replicated or duplicated at $4.00 a piece I'll be one happy chappy.

Bob.

FARSS, did you sell new DVDs at the VHS tape price when DVDs first came out?

Farss, as you know, its all marketing. Does the IMAX cost the same as normal theater pass? Does HD cable cost more than standard TV? How can HD cost the same as SD?

The problem with this issue is reflected in the many BD vs. HD DVD threads, a lot of posters demand HD movies to be cheap and HD equipment to cheap but they think their services demand top dollar--- A real lack of understanding the marketing. If the new product is 4x times better and is cheaper or matches the standard product, that means the new product costs between 14% to 35% to bring to the mass market. If your moving from SD to HD, the cost of upgrading,...etc... does not permit single-short term- contracts at same cost in the first year. Anyways, off to watch a John Wayne movie, it been years.

If there's anyway to get 500 BD disks replicated or duplicated at $4.00 a piece I'll be one happy chappy.

There isn't that I am aware of, but then again, your request is utterly unreasonable. Could you do this at this point in the lifetime of a DVD. Of course not. You also can not do it for BD now, but since we now have a single format and the consumer can come down from the fence and actually buy into a HD disk format, economics of scale would make this happen soon enough.

Besides, your customers have paid a lot extra for their TV and their BD player if they have one now, they have no problem paying extra for the movie. That is the nature of early adopters.

Hey wait a minute, can't Vegas already write BR discs?

No Fred, Vegas CAN'T do BR disks. In fact of all the software out there, Vegas has been about the slowest in adapting. But you go ahead and try to burn a BD-r with Vegas and see what happens.

My request is not utterly unreasonable at all.
Why did DVDs come down in price dramatically and very quickly?
Because despite the high capital cost of plant the Asian manufacturers pushed the per unit costs down. That was largerly due to the thing being very cheap to manufacture. They've now written off that plant and for certain they can belt out a replicated DVD for peanuts. There's a bit of a sting in that though. The same plant cannot produce BD, it can produce HD DVD and CH DVD. They invested in SD DVD plant for export, DVD never really gained as much traction in Asia as it did in the west. Most of the Asian economies don't need any more foreign exchange, China must be swimming in USDs. They've got an ecomony that's on fire and a growing demand for consummer goods and they have their own variant of HD DVD that they can belt out in existing plant. Don't expect to see them pushing down the price of blank BD disks or the price of pressing them either.

So now in order to belt out BD disks we're faced with investment in new plant, around USD 25M was one price I've heard bandied around. Even if you ignore the capital costs there's still the per unit costs which don't decrease with volume, stampers cost more to make and probably don't last as long. That's what I'm talking about and it is a reasonable discussion. Say what you like but a diamond ring is always going to cost more than a zirconium ring not matter how many diamond rings get sold.

This is after we get past the issue of Sony having to recover their R&D costs and the costs of all the bribes they've paid. Spot might say BD isn't just Sony but that's somewhat clouding the issue, sure they got others to join the party but the tech was and is theirs. Who stood to loose the most if BD did tank. Toshiba will survive, the impact on Sony if they lost this one could have been huge, in fact it's cost them so much it's hard to see how they'll ever recover their costs. Down here they were trying to give away BluPrint, I don't know why everyone was complaining about the price of it, it could be had for free.

Will consummers stop sitting on the fence. I think that's a fallacy, they're not on the fence, have no interest in the fence, mostly don't even know it exists. The few that do are confused. It took me 5 minutes to explain to one of them why he shouldn't buy into BD. The guy was already spitting chips. He'd spent a fortune on a BD player, a HD camcorder, a Vaio laptop and Pinnacle. Once I explained to him he could connect his laptop upto his new Bravia he realised what a daft idea using BD disks were for his home movies. I did convince him to go buy a copy of Vegas though.

Bob.

This is after we get past the issue of Sony having to recover their R&D costs and the costs of all the bribes they've paid. Spot might say BD isn't just Sony but that's somewhat clouding the issue, sure they got others to join the party but the tech was and is theirs.

As usual, Bob says it much more eloquently than I have been able to. It's theirs, it's undefined, there are no limits and/or set minimums, and they are free to do as they wish. So what we have now may or may not hold true for the future. Who knows, maybe it will turn out great and we'll all be able to burn BDMV as we are now and it will work on all machines (and let there be no mistake.... this is what I wish for). But it also could turn out the other way..... BDMV gets restricted and we get to pay through the nose for it.

i wouldn't say the future is all doom and gloom. Sony as a whole aren't entirely dumb and they will go after the dollars. Problem for them more often than not is by the time they wake up it's too late for them and we get hurt in the process by varying amounts.
This happened with DAT and MD and Sony's walkman products. It happened with DVD +R.
People always find a way to do what they want regardless of how business tries to dictate. IF Sony do screwup with BD something else will fill the void. HTPCs are going a lot of traction, maybe you don't see that so much in the USA but I do here.
This industry is a state of high flux, not just the video side. Expect to see some very dramatic developments over the next few years. The way movies get made will undergo a total change. 3D is only the beginning of a revolution. I'd not thought about this much until yesterday when I read something from a DP. Companies like Sony will need to be very nimble.

Bob.

i wouldn't say the future is all doom and gloom.

No, I wouldn't say that either. In fact, quite the opposite... we have Hi def. But I'm betting there will be restrictions and costs that we did not bargain for. From my perspective to this point anyway, the BDA has been much nicer to the studios with all sorts of protection schemes, than to us (the common video editor) and I don't see this changing much for the better (for us). Maybe I'm wrong... and I hope I am, but the water is not clear with the BDA.... and they COULD have made it clear by now.

DRM is becoming as major issue, and that's fine with me... so long as it does not interfere with the law abiding citizen, and one of the few things that the bda HAS made clear is that they are willing to go a long way to satisfy the studio's and DRM.... let's hope they know where to draw the line.

Blink, the problem is that you're acting like all of this (fees, format changes, DRM etc.) are specific to BR, when in fact they're not. And don't go saying you're NOT acting like that, because how else can you interpret "BR won... but will we lose?"

(Oh, and in case you haven't noticed, MS is just as into DRM as Sony. Ever notice all of the DRM in Windows Media Player, for example?)

Also, as for my comment about authoring BR in Vegas, what is it that we can burn from the timeline? I'm not familiar with all of the various abbreviations, but my understanding is that we can burn *something* from the timeline that will play on BR players.

Now that I think of it, what do you care about BR fees and things? You said BR would still lose even though HD-DVD is gone. You don't mean to tell me that you're going to end up burning (or wanting to burn) BR discs, are you?

<I>My request is not utterly unreasonable at all. [/i]

Yes it is.

Why did DVDs come down in price dramatically and very quickly?

They didn't. Where did you take that from? Don't argue from pure fantasy. DVDs came down in price slowly, and had an adoption rate that was lower than what you see for BD.

The same plant cannot produce BD, it can produce HD DVD and CH DVD.

That is utterly irrelevant. The production cost difference between HD DVD and BD is insignificant at this stage. Why do you think BD production cost is relevant? Do you really think, in todays world, that the unit production cost of something like DVDs and BDs is significant, or even particularly relevant, when it comes to the item cost?

Don't expect to see them pushing down the price of blank BD disks or the price of pressing them either.

Why don't you get a grip on reality? This is just bizarre. Why on earth would there be no competition in the BD arena just because the Chinese would (for some magical reason concocted in some strange imagination) not act competitively?

and the costs of all the bribes they've paid

What bribes? Are you one of those who still think Warner got bought off, even though it became clear long ago that the only attempts at buying anyone came from Tosh and Microsoft trying to buy Warner's neutrality or conversion to HD DVD. Buy-outs that Warner re-buffed again and again. Sony never paid Warner. HD DVD lost because it was an inferior product marketed badly. They lost despite the fact that they tried to buy several studios, and they engaged in significant dumping practices (selling hardware at below production cost).

Spot might say BD isn't just Sony but that's somewhat clouding the issue

You are kidding right? Let's see... HD DVD hardware - 100% Tosh. HD DVD software owned by one of the most monopolistic companies known to man. Yes, it is the BD camp that has a problem since Sony owns... nothing and the main video encoder is a true industry standard and the other parts of the software is based on open standards too... yes, it is the BD forum that is owned by a single company. In fairy land.

It is always a good idea to use arguments from the real world when you argue your point. I can understand your friend decided to back away from BD after you talked to him, you probably told him that it would ruin his TV, make gremlins eat his children and supply billions of dollars to terrorists in Belgium.

Terje - I gotta defend Bob on this.

DVD's have come down in price, at least round here they have, fairly recently - it's very noticable, not the gradual "over the years" declination of price, but something much more recent can defintely be seen when I go shopping. It's why I'm coming back tfrom the stores with 3 dvds, instead of 1.

HD DVD vs BD plants.
It is a big deal, since a plant can adapt to other DVD-based stuff easily enough, but requires a major refurb to adopt to the new gen due to the BD media. Big cost differentation there - which does get passed onto the consumer.

Who says Sony owns nothing?
Aside from somehow escaping the monopoly dispersion of studios many years ago, Sony owns interests in the Making of the films, in hardare, studios, software and more. It owns segments in the recordin industry with its Sony BMG division. It owns aspects of the BD format, funily enough. It owns the output stages , such as tvs, VCRs, BD players etc. And of course, Sony cinema technology, and SDDS.. And they're about the only company that does still have a piece in every pie.

I'm not talking about the cost of buying a Hollywood movie on a shiny disk, that's completely irrelevant to us and this discussion. The margin between per unit production costs and the checkout price is obviously huge and there's plenty of wiggle room.
What I am talking about is the cost of blank media and the cost of having our productions replicated. Since I started producing DVDs the break even point between duplication and replication has shifted from 1,000 units to 500 units. Main thing that seems to have bought that change is the replicators have waived the cost of the masters. From our end of the game we've gone from having to supply data tapes to replicating off garden variety DVD -R media. Either way it's not been a huge shift in costs, in some respects the shift in cost becomes hidden by the costs of printing slicks and cases for medium sized runs.
Some here are talking about BD tech as though it just arrived. It's old tech, not new, it's been around for 5 years and I haven't seen any dramatic price drop in XDCAM disks.
As for Terje's comments about M$ and Sony, in this business when someone uses the term "The Evil Empire" they aren't referring to M$. Panny sold a lot more HVXs they they really should have, simply because it wasn't made by Sony. Sony's behavior over the years has been pretty appalling, they've used strongarm tactics and a lot of technology shuffling to maintain their position. Like M$, it's mostly just plain dumb behavior. Combine that with our natural dislike of anything big and it's a given that the anti Sony sentiment runs deep. You've only got to look to Sony's battle with the EBU to get a whiff of what I'm talking about and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

To suggest though that this non war has in some way been a struggle between M$ and Sony's camp is equally silly. M$ get a dime out of BD too. If you really wanted to avoid supporting M$ then sorry, your screwed no matter who won.

Bob.

"This format battle probably has hurt them the most if they invested in HD DVD."

That's where the point gets lost. As far as I know there was next to no investment required to stamp out HD DVDs. You basically have to build new plant to replicate BD.

In saying that though, maybe Sony were going about it correctly. There seems to have been significant problems in getting HD DVD burners to work. Possibly HD DVD was pushing the limits of existing plant too hard.

I'm NOT for one moment saying we'd have been better off if HD DVD had won. I'm saying the whole picture hasn't been given enough discussion. We seem to have been under the illusion that going from SD DVD to some HiDef shiny disk was going to be a seemless process. We've been so distracted by the non war to focus enough on what our battles will be regardless of who won.

Many here seem to been under the impression that at some point in the near future we'd have a DVDA for BD, is that even possible?
Can we send out a master on a relatively cheap disk?
What will the setup costs be?
What will the per unit costs be?

So far the only quotes I've had for BD or HD DVD authoring have required masters on HDCAM SR. What about if we want to do our own full authoring, where are we at?

Bob.

"you've only got to look to Sony's battle with the EBU to get a whiff of what I'm talking about and that's just the tip of the iceberg." Farss, are you talking about many years ago when EBU chose 720p as the EU HD format. The market world wide view seems to view that decision was in error and that 1080p is where it will end up at.