Comments

johnmeyer wrote on 4/21/2008, 6:57 PM
its here...........

One snowflake does not a winter make.
Spot|DSE wrote on 4/21/2008, 8:27 PM
We haven't had a tradeshow request for nearly 3 years that wasn't HD of some sort, and since last August, almost all are BD.
That said, I agree....one snowflake does not make a winter. But...you didn't see DVD being advertised like you've seen BD (and before that, BD vs HD DVD). We also never saw color aggressively advertised like we've seen HD aggressively advertised. More to the point, we didn't have a change in the television spec that has accelerated the acceptance of HD, which trickles to BD/HD disc delivery.
I'll wager this is a short year for getting prepped up for HD on disc to clients that have budgets of any merit. The American Farm Bureau asked us for HD recently as well. They're about as conservative as it gets.
Jim H wrote on 4/21/2008, 8:30 PM
But with the prices of consumer BD players still starting at $400 who's buying BD discs? Come on now all you early adopters, start buying so I can take advantage of the later price reductions....
Terje wrote on 4/22/2008, 5:49 PM
who's buying BD discs?

"Everybody"? Given that sales are up rather significantly. 351% according to Hollywood Reporter.

Hollowood Reporter
johnmeyer wrote on 4/22/2008, 8:49 PM
I never posted in any of the silly Blu-Ray vs HDDVD posts, and I have nothing against Blu-Ray. Nothing whatsoever. However, format wars aside, I am still appalled at how terrible a job both the display and the Blu-Ray vendors are doing in making the HD displays at retail (here in the states) actually look good. People are buying HD displays, that's for sure, but I think that is mostly because that's all they CAN buy.

But go into Circuit City or Best Buy or Frys (west coast chains) and look at the quality of the video up on the displays lining the walls. So far I have seen one display in one Frys (the one in Palo Alto) that actually showed the "real" HD stuff. The rest was really bad satellite (which is a whole additional sad story, well documented in the news articles the past few days -- about how ticked off satellite customers are getting over the pathetic HD quality) or if it wasn't bad satellite, it was up-res'd standard DVDs. Because of clay face (total lack of detail), the quality looked worse than most basic SD signals. From what I have read, even some Blu-Ray discs aren't actually fresh HD scans of original material, but some sort of digital up-res'd stuff. (See my posts from two years ago where I predicted exactly this outcome).

This isn't an indictment of the technology of the actual products: both are capable, as we all know, of producing amazing results. But companies like Sony had better get their jobbers out there working with the retailers to get these showroom displays looking great, or the uptake is going to be pretty slow.

Finally, as I posted in February two years ago, just after the shipping dates for HD players was first announced, the reasons to switch from DVD to Blu-Ray come down to picture quality (yes, I know there are a few other things, but very few people know about them, and even fewer care). By contrast, the reasons ten years ago to switch from VHS to DVD included not only remarkably better picture quality, but also random chapter access, menus, multiple languages, subtitles, angles, durability (and longevity), no generation loss when copying, and many more.

It was a no-brainer for most people, especially when DVD Recorders came along and added recording capability, the only remaining advantage VHS enjoyed.

So, if the retailers can't demonstrate the quality difference in a really compelling way, then despite the temporary uptick in sales, and the slight drop in prices, I think the penetration rate is going to continue to be pretty slow. Sure, Blu-Ray will eventually overtake DVD, and some day we will get customer requests, but here in Carmel -- a pretty affluent area -- I still haven't seen the first snowflake.

I'm doing a fashion show next week and expect 50-100 orders. I'm shooting in HDV and will let all potential customers know that fact, just to see if anyone requests a Blu-Ray disc. If they do, I'll try to fake it with a DVD HD disc (which I'll give away since I don't know if it will work, and since it won't be a real Blu-Ray disc). I'll let everyone here know what happens, if it isn't what I expect.

My prediction: I once again will not get one single request for delivery on Blu-Ray.

[edit]This is from exactly two years ago: HDDVD and BluRay are getting nervous? (from March 14, 2006)

[2nd edit]Check this other post out: Mixing Camera Types; Future (from March 27, 2006)

Remember that these were posted over two years ago. While the format war has been fought and won, think about how little of these two-year-old posts I would have to re-write if I wanted to post again today ...