high definition war stalled claims Reuters

blink3times wrote on 9/24/2007, 8:18 PM
"NEW YORK - Sales of next-generation DVD players are not seen as likely to take off for another 18 months...."

""The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum." (This ones just for FW :)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20960122/

Comments

John_Cline wrote on 9/24/2007, 10:40 PM
Blinky,

Did you not get the message when the other thread you started on this very subject got deleted? If this was "just for fw" then why did you post it on the forum? If you and fwtep want to continue this insanity, I suggest you do it via e-mail off the list.

John
blink3times wrote on 9/25/2007, 2:55 AM
Yes... you're right... I didn't even notice the other one got deleted!
Jeff9329 wrote on 9/25/2007, 8:12 AM
I believe the HD format news (within limits of good taste) is a very important part of this forum.

Vegas is a HD NLE and we are its users who generally want to author as quickly and cheaply as possible, whatever the format.

You don't really have to open these threads if you don't want to hear about them.

I am chomping at the bit for this to play out so I can start distributing material in HD. But it is probably not going to happen soon.
fwtep wrote on 9/25/2007, 9:55 AM
I don't want to start a long thread, but I couldn't help but notice that the very first paragraph echoes what I've been saying all along:

"consumers are still waiting for prices to fall and for the battle over two competing technologies to be resolved."

In other words, the war will be fought and won by early adopters. If millions and millions of people were buying both formats, there would be no resolution. So the war will be won when the movies on one format reach a market share of over 85% or so, even if the market is only under a million people.
blink3times wrote on 9/25/2007, 11:30 AM
In other words, the war will be fought and won by early adopters.
It's the EXCLUSION of everybody EXCEPT the early adopters that is causing the stall. In fact, most early adopters are now going neutral because the price of HD DVD players is low enough.... they don't want to miss out on the exclusive movies

Personally speaking, I don't think average Joe will bite until prices fall A LOT more. The other day I picked up a HD DVD at BB and the price after tax was a whopping $38! The same movie in dvd would have been 1/2 that.

In the end though IMO prices ARE going to win this. History shows over and over again in these scenarios that price beats out. Reuters clearly states that BD needs to get those prices down.
fwtep wrote on 9/25/2007, 1:36 PM
Wow, by BB do you mean Blockbuster? Don't they have discount stores near you? I see things all the time here for as low as $18 (US), with the average being around $24. Now, of course both of those are still expensive compared to regular DVD but then again they cost a bit more to make. I don't necessarily mean replication, I mean increases in cost (of varying amounts) throughout the whole process.

And yes, price will be the final kicker, but so far the more expensive product is winning, which is definitely strange, especially since (as far as the regular consumer is concerned) it's slightly inferior (re: extras). On the other hand, maybe it's the fact that early adopters are generally more savvy and are buying BR because they know that once it settles down it will be the better product. Just some ruminating on my part.
Laurence wrote on 9/25/2007, 1:45 PM
BB - Best Buy maybe? At Walmrat they are usually less than $25 in both formats.
Xander wrote on 9/25/2007, 2:24 PM
I finally took the plung and got an HD-DVD drive for the XBOX 360. With the five free movies and included King Kong, that is quite a start to a collection. As I can rent either format from Netflix instead of buying, the initial investment has not been that great. Also, it gives me a least one format to test with - drive works on Win XP and Vista 64 too.
blink3times wrote on 9/25/2007, 4:40 PM
Wow, by BB do you mean Blockbuster? Don't they have discount stores near you?

BestBuy. Their prices may be a tad high... but more to the point, this is Canada... prices are quite naturally higher in Canada. (We pay roughly $4.20 for a gallon of gas, here at present). Not just that but we pay 2 sales taxes... one to the Province and one to the Feds (13% total).

I have though seen HD DVD's on sale for as low as $27
fwtep wrote on 9/25/2007, 8:43 PM
13% tax? I guess that health care isn't so free after all. :-)
TheHappyFriar wrote on 9/25/2007, 9:03 PM
stores like Best Buy, Circuit City & the like go by MSRP. Not the "discount" price Walmart, Target, etc. use.

when I can't buy DVD's I'll switch. Why spend 2x more for a movie in HD then I can for DVD? Remember, hollywood says LOTS of people pirate crappy versions to forgo buying DVD's. They think people will pay more $$?
vitalforce wrote on 9/25/2007, 9:28 PM
<<13% tax? I guess that health care isn't so free after all. :-) >>

Um...health care isn't free anywhere. But at least everybody gets it....

National health care in the U.S., or a fair version of it, would be like taking an anchor off the neck of U.S. industry.

Yeah--just passing time while I wait to see which hi-def burner to buy...
blink3times wrote on 9/26/2007, 2:02 AM
13% tax? I guess that health care isn't so free after all. :-)

LOL

FW... there is no such thing as FREE. That little toy you fish out of your cereal box in the morning isn't even free. It costs money to live in Canada, there is no doubt about it... On the other hand, we have one of the best social safety nets in the world. If I lose the job or get sick, I know I will be taken care of. That kind of peace of mind does not come cheap.... but it's well worth it!

I chopped my thumb and 1/2 my palm off with an ax a few years back. The ER, the top notch plastic surgeons, the months of physiotherapy.... all no charge. I wouldn't even begin to know how to add up the bills... maybe $200,000... I don't know. The point is.... I don't have to know. And this kind of care comes to you whether you are rich or poor, black or white, employed or not.
apit34356 wrote on 9/26/2007, 5:01 AM
Blink,"I chopped my thumb and 1/2 my palm off with an ax a few years back." what were you doing?
blink3times wrote on 9/26/2007, 6:20 AM
"Blink,"I chopped my thumb and 1/2 my palm off with an ax a few years back." what were you doing?"

I was chopping fire wood at the cottage. I had been doing it for about six hours straight and my coordination was well on its way out... I had this one log that wouldn't stand on end on its own so I decided to hold it with one hand and swing with the other.... bad move!!
apit34356 wrote on 9/26/2007, 9:43 AM
Blink, I assume family or friends were around,( I hope!), how long was the journey to the first medical care and were you transfer to a bigger facility for the surgey? (always stressful events, getting there, transferring,etc).
blink3times wrote on 9/26/2007, 11:32 AM
Blink, I assume family or friends were around,( I hope!), how long was the journey to the first medical care and were you transfer to a bigger facility for the surgey?

Yes... fortunately my wife and kids were there! I threw a belt around my forearm and my wife drove me to the nearest hospital in a small town... took about 25 minutes. They stabilized me there and then ambulanced me back to the city (about 90 minutes) where they reconnected my thumb. The first surgery took about 4 hours and the Doc said I was pretty lucky in that it was a sharp ax which actually made clean slice instead of the crushing effect of a dull one. There were 3 more surgeries after that to do some nerve repair, then a few months in physio getting the hand back into shape. I have normal grabbing action (which is the important part)... but I can no longer spread the thumb outwards all the way.

So let this be a lesson... whenever chopping digits.... use a SHARP ax! :)
Chienworks wrote on 9/26/2007, 3:12 PM
Price is definitely the far overriding concern for me. I'll probably go HD when i can get a player for $60, a big screen TV for $250, and movies in bargain bin for under $10. Just not worth it to me to switch any sooner than that, even if that's 10 years away. Probably won't be playing discs then anyway, so the optical format won't even be an issue.
farss wrote on 9/26/2007, 3:44 PM
This discussion could be quite relevant, let me throw in an interesting observation.

We've found that clients recently are shooting LESS HD than 12 months ago. Pretty well all of it 16:9 though.

I'd reckon if someone bought out something like the EX1 with SD CCDs in it they'd sell like hot cakes.

Bob.