I hope that this isn't like the whole AMD-Intel scenario. Intel hogs the market. AMD produces a faster and cheaper CPU. Intel ignores the competition from AMD, until AMD gets a significant market share. Intel gets serious and drives AMD into the ground with better CPUs.

Now I started out in video editing with Adobe Premiere. For several versions I was stuck using both Premiere and Vegas. Finally by Vegas 7, I dropped Premiere (I thought for good). Now, work has forced me to upgrade and I have been using the Adobe CS3 suite again, in addition to Vegas 8. Grrr, I hate using two pieces of similar software. But that's my problem.

Anyway, if Adobe brings a decent 64 bit version of Premiere to the market first, that may just about do in Vegas. It will still hang on to a smaller market share, but it will prolly end up like AMD. I hope not, but it is possible.

Exactly my point. Adobe released Lightroom 2 64-bit which works flawlessly on my system - signals Adobe can do 64-bit. I am really waiting for After Effects 64-bit - that is where I really see the benefit of 64-bit. I would like to see Vegas Pro 8 work as advertised - mine did after I stopped using that new 32-bit feature.

Been a user since 4 and the release of 8 seems very sloppy. Not excited about learning another nle. I will probably go to avid.

Ford Motor invests 600 million in new paint facillity then shuts it down without painting a single car. People wonder why

The reason people wonder why is because most people are not able to grasp business decisions too well. All business decisions needs to be made based on the future, not on the past. Any cost that you have already sunk into a project is totally irrelevant when you make decisions abou that project. ONLY future cost is relevant.

Banal, but true, example. New bean counter in a local government. The government was developing some land to build a new library. They had sunk (numbers are fictitious, I don't recall what they were, scale is correct though) 100 mill into developing this land, and needed to invest another 100 mill to get the library up and running. It was a nice project and all.

New bean counter comes in, finds a business that has a suitable building for sale, finds that for a 70 mill investment he can have his library. He therefore cancels the entire land development project. The one that had already received investments of 100 mill. He then commences the building of the new library with a 70 mill budget.

Newspapers, people and politicians were up in arms. How could he "waste" 100 mill like that? How could he just walk away from a piece of land that they had sunk 100 mill into? Was he totally insane?

Of course not. He was the only person there with a brain.

Cost of continuing with the new build out, 100 mill + 200 mill = 200 mill
Cost of using the business building 100 mill + 70 mill. He saved the city 30 mill.

Most people have problems understanding decisions like that. Journalists in particular. If the future cost to Ford of leaving the plant empty was lower than using it, then they leave it empty.

Did Ford make a mistake anywhere along the path that made them build the place and then abandon it? Probably not. Business is about making good decisions with incomplete information. You have to adapt. From the Library story above, the $70 mill solution wasn't available when the city started developing the new land. They couldn't make a decision based on it being available. They made the right decision on going with a 200 mill budget. When the solution became available, they needed to reconsider, no matter how much they had sunk into the project so far. The sunk cost is irrelevant for decision making.

Check Wikipedia for "sunk cost fallacy" or "concorde effect".

If Vegas was to go the way of the Dino what NLE would you all go to. Personaly I love Vegas I use both 8 Pro and Movie studio Platinum 8. and do not like the idea of changing again. I donot think it is going anywhere but who knows. I will still use it as long as it keeps working.

"Eventually, the VP leaves, a new guy/gal comes in and gives in, mostly in order to be seen as taking bold action. Many years go by without a release, and then finally something comes out that is slower, buggier, and about five times larger. And, oh yeah, it has about three new features."

John, except for new features, you just described Windows Vista.

Since the original source of the rumor is at least second-hand, and more likely third-hand, I won't give it any cred at all.

If Vegas was to go the way of the Dino, what NLE would you all go to?

I'd stay put.

I'm still on V7 and will stay there until it no longer does what I need. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

WordPerect vs Word.

WordPerfect is still going, but it has barely evolved since version 10 (currently on Version 14).

It gets a tweak now and then, but nothing 'must have'. Compare that to Word, that gets a complete make-over, yet remains more bloated and under-featured compared to WP.

I used to use WP, but was forced to move away. Nothing would entice me to use Word, so I use Open Office.

By the time Vegas in in the same situation as WP, there will probably be a viable Open Source alternative.

John, except for new features, you just described Windows Vista.
:)

Very good, Steve.

They have to realize they have it before they can dump it.

Hello John...
most excellent analysis . . .
I have no basis upon which to doubt your version of things or to compare it ... someone mentioned SoFo - is that Sound Forge ?
- - -
My main reason for writing it to contribute an online version of the "not worth the paper it's written on" ...
... not worth the pixels it takes to display it ...
and since we keep building more computers, bigger computer monitors, and even electronic billboards, these pixels keep getting cheaper and cheaper. . .

Until that time. . . Earl J.

SoFo = Sonic Foundry, the company that developed Sound Forge, Vegas, ACID, etc. and was purchased in 2003 by Sony, and then became Sony Creative Software.

The main reason to buy a software company is to move the customer base from the acquired company on to the products already owned and developed by the Big Company. Then you dump the acquired software.
Exactly what Avid did in purchasing Pinnacle. They thought they would let Studio continue to make millions for them but they didn't want such a "cheesy" program to have their name on it (I still buy most versions of Studio and have the latest with its tons of goodies). They put Liquid under the Avid label hoping to have people upgrade to MC or one of their other products. However, we were all (well many of us) saying, "Why would I do that? Liquid is much better in so many ways." Not only that but the "real" Avid people treated us like dirt. It was as if we were some sort of mutants who shoveled animal dung and were invading their precious world. Okay, so there's a tinge of resentment for the way Avid treated me and many of the others who've joined the Vegas team.

All this makes me wonder what alternatives should be considered if the day comes... or put another way... who/what are the top NLE's now on the market? Say the top 5?

Not in order...
- Sony Vegas
- Adobe Premier
- Apple Final Cut
- Avid
- Pinnacle

"All this makes me wonder what alternatives should be considered if the day comes"

Frankly, the "alternatives" stink. I came from Avid Liquid. A good program but Avid was handling it badly.... it's dead now anyway. I won't in my life time do the Mac/FCP thing.... Premiere I have tried and found it pretty buggy. Edius is fast.... but lacking. Speed Edit is too new and not near ready for prime time.

Avid is supposed to have a replacement out for Liquid in another year or so (probably dumbed down though). We'll see what that's like. But all told.... it would be a SAD day for me if Vegas died. It's simply the best all-round NLE that exists right now.

I will say though.... I've always hated the name "Vegas".... sounds pretty cheezy. This program deserves a much more posh and elegant name

Sonic Foundry stock is 85 cents right now on the OTC market.
JJK

How about reviving the name Screenblast? That has a nice ring to it.

"They have to realize they have it before they can dump it."

lol !

As for the name itself...:
http://www.sonycreativesoftware.com/forums/ShowMessage.asp?ForumID=4&MessageID=119616

blink3times said: "I will say though.... I've always hated the name "Vegas".... sounds pretty cheezy."

Interesting comment.

When I finally decided to go with Vegas back in the V4 days it was at least 6 months late in coming. I just couldn't convince myself to try a video editor that was named Vegas and kept putting off giving it a try. Fortunately I overcame my fears and never looked back. In the process I trashed an $800 Matrox card that just didn't work with a very unstable Adobe Premier. Best decision I ever made.

Sonic Foundry stock is 85 cents right now on the OTC market.Different company, which has nothing whatsoever to do with Vegas.

I have to agree that I didn't go with Vegas originally because of the name. I was on Studio 8 and trying to decide between Vegas and Liquid. One of the deciding factors was that Liquid "sounded" more professional.

Choosing (or not choosing) an NLE based on its name is ridiculous. It's just a name, like video777 or blink3times are just names. It's like saying, "I choose not to read your forum posts because you call yourself video777." I guess they called it Liquid because "gas" or "solid" didn't sound professional enough.