ONKYO joins format war with new HD DVD player

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MozartMan wrote on 8/10/2007, 7:45 PM
blink3times,

You forgot to mention that you need to boil some HD DVD disks like "Childeren of Men" and "300" in order to play in your HD DVD player.

Here is the fate HD DVD:

blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 7:50 PM
The 51 gig HD DVD has already been done and tested

BD 8 layers for 200gig
HD DVD is 14 layers... as I said, at some point it starts to get silly. There are very few people willing to pay the price for a single layer disk... forget 8 or 14.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 7:58 PM
"You forgot to mention that you need to boil some HD DVD disks like "Childeren of Men" and "300" in order to play in your HD DVD player."
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So you've tried 300 in your HD DVD player? Did you see the blue screen PIP system...it's pretty neat.
zstevek wrote on 8/10/2007, 7:59 PM
blink,

You’re missing my point...

For every single, double, triple, etc layer HD-DVD released there will be a single, double, triple layer Blue-ray DVD released.

For example a 51 GB HD-DVD will require 3 layers, while a blue ray will only require 2 for 50 GB. What price difference do you expect for that extra layer (that squeezes out 1 more GB of space)?

Certainly experience tells us that extra layers costs more $ if we refer to single layer DVD+R's vs dual layers discs.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 8:14 PM
"For example a 51 GB HD-DVD will require 3 layers, while a blue ray will only require 2 for 50 GB. What price difference do you expect for that extra layer (that squeezes out 1 more GB of space)?"
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Well, first, the price remains to be seen (price on single layer HD DVD's is already cheaper than that of BD).... but in the meantime... You can't use a disk without a player of some kind. HD DVD players are already MUCH cheaper than BD machines, so in order to save a wee bit of money on disks, you will have to spend A LOT more on the player.

And as far as burners go, we have yet to see the price of the HD DVD burners coming out shortly.
zstevek wrote on 8/10/2007, 8:24 PM
"Well, first, the price remains to be seen (price on single layer HD DVD's is already cheaper than that of BD

Not true in the case of the movie "300", and I pay money for the movie not PIP features so I really don't care about the extras.

In regards to the hardware you are correct, but you can count on the BR players eventually matching the HD-DVD players in cost, the price has already been cut in half over the past year.

I am not knocking HD-DVD's, my frustration comes out of the fact we have to have this kind of argument.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 8:29 PM
"Not true in the case of the movie "300", and I pay money for the movie not PIP features so I really don't care about the extras."
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We're talking about BLANK WRITABLE disks.
And it's good that you don't care about the extras, because you will not be able to get the extras with your existing machine when Sony upgrades the BD spec... you will have to buy a new machine. (If you own any one of the players)
MozartMan wrote on 8/10/2007, 8:46 PM
@blink3times
"Well, first, the price remains to be seen (price on single layer HD DVD's is already cheaper than that of BD)"
"We're talking about BLANK WRITABLE disks."
=========================================

Yes, the price is cheaper per disk. BUT

Verbatim 25GB 2X BD-R(Blu-ray) Single - $10.99. Price per GB = 0.44c

RiDATA 15GB 1X HD DVD-R Single Disc - 8.99. Price per GB = 0.60c

So what is cheaper? BD-R at 44 cents/GB or HD DVD-R at 60 cents/GB
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:06 PM
Not sure what your point is... On tiger direct I'm looking at a Fujifilm BD (25gig) for 19.99... which kind of blows you price/gig theory out of the water.

http://www.tigerdirect.ca/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=3089878&CatId=2305

The HD DVD is clearly cheaper. Don't you think you're reaching a little on this one?

Lets' get a little realistic here. The price is set by the manufacturer. Different manufacturers will have different prices. But if the same manufacturer puts out a BD and a HD DVD then the HD DVD will always be cheaper because it's a smaller disk... and you can't buy a disk on a single gigabyte level.

The downside to HD DVD is that if you happen to need more than 15gig then you're into a DL disk... more money, while you're still into a SL disk with BD. On the other hand, 15gig is more than enough for the average person, so buying a 25gig BD becomes a waist.
fwtep wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:23 PM
I wrote that the war will be basically over after Christmas. You said:

What a pile of TOTAL rubbish.... Do you have ANYTHING in terms of proof to support this FUD?

Did you even read what I wrote? BR is killing HD in movie sales, unless you don't think that selling 2 to 3 times more discs is "minor." For the entire year so far, that's how the sales have been going. And as I said on another thread, this is not based on fanboy blogs, it's Nielsen Soundscan data. Year-to-date sales of BR are 67%, while HD is 33%. And nothing-- NOTHING-- that's come along with HD, not PiP, not players that are half the price of BR, not sales, not advertising, nothing has impacted that lead.

And the moment that Universal joins BR it will be OVER for HD-DVD. There will be no reason to get it. So why should studios keep putting out two versions of their movies?

Let me ask you this: What do you see on the horizon, near or far, that will cause a cataclysmic shift in how the HD/BR market has been going? When you say the war hasn't really started yet, what do you foresee as the actual war?

And if sales of BR titles are already 2 to 3 times better than HD, what do you think will happen when BR players come down in price to match those of HD?

I'll stand by my prediction that BR will win. And that the writing will be on the wall for HD after the holidays this year. Feel free to come back and say "I told you so" if I'm wrong, but spare me the spouting and posturing. I'll repeat what I said above: NONE of the predictions of the HD camp have come to pass; none of their big guns and announcements have had any impact on BR.
MozartMan wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:35 PM
@blink3times
"Not sure what your point is..."
==================================

Here is my question one more time:
So what is cheaper? BD-R at 44 cents/GB or HD DVD-R at 60 cents/GB?

Here is couple screen shots from Newegg.com for you so you can sleep well tonight.



blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:40 PM
"Did you even read what I wrote? BR is killing HD in movie sales, "
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As I wrote in another post... the rising BD numbers are of little surprise. This is due to the release of the PS3. BD sales were EXPECTED to rise at the release of the PS3. Unfortunately for Sony, they have not risen to expectations. The PS3 is no doubt an excellent machine, but it has not met the sales expectations that Sony had.

On the other side of the fence you have HD DVD which is killing BD players in machine sales (if you don't believe, then go read the AVS forums because I'm too lazy to look for a link)

As for studios.. I have always maintained (and continue to maintain) that studios will not settle this war. SOMEBODY has to take the lead and get things going... and that's the studios. But they will bend in any direction that the consumer wants them to... the consumer is the one in the drivers seat at the end of the day NOT the studios. If the general public ever decides to join in to this new HD era (which they have not as of yet).... THEN the war will begin, and the studios will shift into whatever gear they have to to make money. The general public does not care about a format war, layers on a disk, or any of that other stuff... what they care about are PRICES.... and so far HD DVD has been able to out wit BD in that department every step of the way
zstevek wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:49 PM
"We're talking about BLANK WRITABLE disks."

Okay, then think about the fact that a triple layer disc is more difficult to manufacture vs. a dual layer (which Sony already has available). Do you honestly think a triple layer HD-DVD will be cheaper than a dual layer BR in the long term?

"And it's good that you don't care about the extras, because you will not be able to get the extras with your existing machine when Sony upgrades the BD spec... :"

It's kind of funny that you are harping about compatibility and bragging about the 51GB capacity of the yet to be seen triple layer HD-DVD. Do you know for certain that a triple layer disc will even work with all first generation HD-DVD players?
MozartMan wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:51 PM
@blink3times
"(if you don't believe, then go read the AVS forums because I'm too lazy to look for a link)"
=====================================

Aha! That's where you are coming from. There is nothing more to argue with you.

You have a great night, sir.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:51 PM
"Here is my question one more time:
So what is cheaper? BD-R at 44 cents/GB or HD DVD-R at 60 cents/GB?"
======================================================

Again... HD DVD is CLEARLY cheaper.

You can't buy a disk by the single gigabyte. You either get a 15gig disk at the cheaper price... or the 25 at the more expensive price. The question is which disk will leave you with more wasted space? Me personally... my movies are an hour long... that's about 13gigs... I waste 2 gigs on a HD DVD. On a bd I would waste 12
MozartMan wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:53 PM
blink3times,

Your red glasses are too dark.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:55 PM
"Your red glasses are too dark."
==========================

We are now resorting to insults!? It figures.
zstevek wrote on 8/10/2007, 9:59 PM
blink,

All DVD media will come down in price as the supply ramps up.

This fact is very clear:

FOR EVERY LAYER ON A BLUE RAY WRITEABLE DISC MORE DATA WILL BE AVAILBLE VS. A HD-DVD WRITEABLE DISC.
blink3times wrote on 8/10/2007, 10:07 PM
"FOR EVERY LAYER ON A BLUE RAY WRITEABLE DISC MORE DATA WILL BE AVAILBLE VS. A HD-DVD WRITEABLE DISC."
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Of that I will not argue a bit. I will also not argue that overall prices WILL come down. When BD first came out they were something like $25 for SL.

However... can't speak for others, only myself... 15gig is more than enough for my purposes... which means I'll be saving money with HD DVD
Laurence wrote on 8/10/2007, 10:21 PM
"You can't buy a disk by the single gigabyte. You either get a 15gig disk at the cheaper price... or the 25 at the more expensive price. The question is which disk will leave you with more wasted space? Me personally... my movies are an hour long... that's about 13gigs... I waste 2 gigs on a HD DVD. On a bd I would waste 12"

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Most of mine are 7 or 8 minutes tops. A 30 minute project would be absolutely huge for me. I do promos mostly for non-profit stuff. Nobody is interested in seeing more than a few minutes of that sort of thing no matter how great it is. On a Bluray disc, that is a lot of wasted space.

The way I see HD DVD is in the following increments:

1/ Up to 20 minutes = regular DVD+-R = 30 cents per disc
2/ Up to 40 minutes = dual layer DVD+R = $2.50 per disc
3/ Up to 80 minutes = single layer HD DVDR = $13 per disc
4/ Up to 160 minutes = dual layer HD DVDR = not available yet

The way I see BD-R is in the following increments:

1/ Up to 134 minutes = single layer BD-R = $17
2/ Up to 268 minutes = dual layer BD-R = $45

And those times are with Mpeg2. Mpeg4, AVC and VC-1 compression would give you even longer playback times at all the size divisions.

Like I keep saying: for major studio releases, I suppose Bluray has the edge because of it's extra playback time, but either format is more than adequate. But from a small time content production point of view, HD DVD is just way more practical.
fwtep wrote on 8/11/2007, 12:56 AM
the rising BD numbers are of little surprise. This is due to the release of the PS3. BD sales were EXPECTED to rise at the release of the PS3.

Sooo... BR's player AND disc sales are up but you still think that's not indicative of something??? "BR isn't winning, we EXPECTED sales of players and discs to be huge." Now I'm the one on the floor laughing.

Player sales: Clear winner so far: BluRay (Yes, this includes PS3. Because lots of people like to consolidate, and have a player and game system in one.)

Disc sales: Clear winner so far: BluRay. By what in any other kind of competition would be called a landslide.

On the horizon for HD-DVD: Nothing big. Correct me if I'm wrong.

As for the studios, the format that sells the most discs will win. Why? Because without movies, the players are useless. If there were 10 million HD-DVD players out there and only 23 BluRay players, but those 23 people bought 10 copies of every movie, while the HD-DVD owners didn't buy any movies at all, which format would the studios support? I know that's exaggerated but the point is valid: It doesn't matter to them who's sold more players, all they care about is what discs are selling. And they'll cater to the one that sells more. Also, no studio owns HD-DVD, whereas Sony is a major partner in BluRay, so what are the chances that Sony will adopt HD-DVD before Universal adopts BluRay? Zero.

You say that what consumers care about is prices. I agree. BUT then how do you explain the clear dominance of BluRay? The players cost twice as much as HD-DVD players.

By the way, here are some numbers for you: Toshiba's goal is to sell 1 million HD players this year. But Sony's already sold 501,000 PS3's in the US already in just the first three months of this year. Now add in the number of BluRay players (Sony's goal is 600,000 but remember there are several manufacturers for BR) and it's clear that, well, especially by the end of the year there will be a lot more BluRay players out there. (Source for the preceeding: Bloomberg.com) And BluRay owners have already proven that they buy movies, so how does that bode for HD-DVD?

One last thing: You say that the PS3 hasn't met sales expectations from Sony. Well, that's true, but HD-DVD hasn't met Toshiba's expectations either. Last month they cut their expectations from 1.8 million players this year down to 1 million. That's a drop of almost *half*. And BR's already sold that many with several months still to go this year. And again, that's despite costing twice what HD costs.
zstevek wrote on 8/11/2007, 4:00 AM
"15gig is more than enough for my purposes... "

I remember thinking similarly about my single layer DVD+RW drive.... until I purchased a dual layer. Now dual layer discs are just about all I use.

blink3times wrote on 8/11/2007, 5:36 AM
"You say that what consumers care about is prices. I agree. BUT then how do you explain the clear dominance of BluRay? The players cost twice as much as HD-DVD players."
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That's the point... people are not buying the players, they're buying the PS3, but the PS3 will only get BD so far. It's a "game machine" not a player There is only a small crowd (relatively speaking) that will put up with a "game Machine" in their living room.



"One last thing: You say that the PS3 hasn't met sales expectations from Sony. Well, that's true, but HD-DVD hasn't met Toshiba's expectations either. Last month they cut their expectations from 1.8 million players this year down to 1 million."
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My point exactly! As I have stated before, the general public has shown very little interest so far in EITHER format. No body has dominated ANYBODY. If hi def isn't selling then how can you have a "clear winner"????

You say nothing big is happening to HD DVD. Again I say people don't join losing teams... Onkyo is signing on to build HD DVD players, and sumsung is preparing to go dual player. Obviously these people see something that you don't.... or maybe they just enjoy throwing money away..... right? The movie 300 in HD DVD format is out selling BD hands down.... but why???? I thought BD has more machines out there... according to you anyway.

Laurence wrote on 8/11/2007, 6:06 AM
"The movie 300 in HD DVD format is out selling BD hands down.... but why???? I thought BD has more machines out there... according to you anyway."
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http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Warner/Industry_Trends/Disc_Sales/300_Blu-ray_Outsells_HD_DVD_by_2_to_1/848Actually, the Bluray version is outselling the HD DVD version 2 to 1[/link]

The question isn't which format is going to dominate. Bluray has already won that battle. It's whether or not HD DVD will continue as a second format. Personally, I am hoping it does. It is just so much friendlier to those of us who want to burn our own content,

Look, on a movie fan forum, I would expect there to be more support for Bluray. It has more storage space afterall. But we are not a movie fan forum. Supposedly we are a forum of content generators. So far, the Bluray format has been anything but kind to us.