wow, thanks spot. didn't know that about Enderle... damn media! BAD READ! BAD READ! DON'T GO TO THE LINK!!! Forgive me my Sony family... lol.

Well I kind of hope Blu Ray wins. I just scored a PS3 at my local WalMart (they are trickling in)!

Actually, I think we're due for a repeat of what happened with high quality audio discs rather than what happened with Beta and VHS tapes. A while back people thought that what the consumer really needed was a better sounding CD. Since of course the industry couldn't agree on one, two were born: SACD and DVD-A. Both formats are still around but neither one has really taken off. Instead people flocked to the new lower quality but much more convenient mp3 format.

I can picture the same thing happening with DVDs: There will be two formats: HD-DVD and Blu Ray, and some players that can even play both, but the real format of the future is probably going to be downloadable mp4s in both SD and HD resolutions. I'm kind of rooting for DivX myself, but who knows.

He's not alone though, plenty of pundits are saying Sony have missed the boat on this one, they've been throwing free copies of BluPrint around as well but so far none of the locals are interested even for free. Of course for over a year now one of my industry sources was saying BD was dead in the water and that was before the BD ship hit the technical snags its run into more recently.
M$ might be the ones who make the difference, at $200 to add a HD DVD playing capability to the XBox it's a steal. That HD DVD has done as well as it has in the face of Sony's strong arm tactics with the retailers says pretty much that the buying public is getting a lot wiser than they used to be. Sony desperatly needs to learn that their bullboy attitude is costing them dearly, all the way upto the broadcast level, I'm certain Panny and others have scored a lot of sales simply because it was from anyone BUT Sony.
My personal bet is neither of them are going to be a great success, there's too many cheaper / better ways to deliver HiDef content these days and they've been available for some time.
One other thing and maybe I've got this wrong but M$'s DRM model seems way preferable to Sony's. At least M$ lets us, the content creators, control our content.

Speaking of DRM (and copyright protection in general), there are a few good things about competition. If Sony started distributing BD movies with rootkits that hijack your PC (as they did with music CDs), the competition in HD-DVD land would jump all over that as a competitive advantage on their side.

<<<<"A while back people thought that what the consumer really needed was a better sounding CD. ">>>>

Personally, what I want is an option that lets me turn off vocals so I can have an instant instrumental or turn off the music so I can hear acapella. Or better yet, turn off the percussion or strings so I can zero in on specific parts of the song the way I want to. Just think, I could listen to a different variation of the song based on my mood one day.

<<<<<<<<I can picture the same thing happening with DVDs: There will be two formats: HD-DVD and Blu Ray, and some players that can even play both, but the real format of the future is probably going to be downloadable mp4s in both SD and HD resolutions. I'm kind of rooting for DivX myself, but who knows. >>>>>>


Personally, Divx will not win. Its Mpeg-4 Simple/Advanced profile. It doesnt offer nearly the compression/size that H.264 AVC does and it suffers in quality at the same file size. I think that downloadable H.264 AVC movies would work but god knows we will be overfilled with DRM that would make enjoying it nearly impossible or we would get stuck with something like QT's crappy implementation of H.264 AVC which doesnt even use the main profile (hence why Apple's trailers are so freaking huge.)

One doesnt need an HD DVD or BD to enjoy HD even in the living room these days. With system prices and integration much better than they were 4 years ago, STB systems can take the place of the HD players and using H.264 AVC and a video card hooked up to an HD set, you cannot tell a difference b/t a 10MB H.264 AVC file and a HD DVD/BD disc.

My vision for the future is very similar to yours. Its definitely downloadable. However, what we need is one file that includes, HD, SD, and portables with full menu support and extras all contained in the one file. Content owners could distribute one file through bit torrent or the like, even have send the discs in the mail and the user can pay through their cc to enjoy the content. It would completely cut down on distro costs if done electronically which means more profits in the end. I do believe the porn industry will end up dictating how consumers will consume our media int he future. Say what you will, but its hard to thumb our noses at an industry that rakes in billions yearly.

One doesnt need an HD DVD or BD to enjoy HD even in the living room these days. With system prices and integration much better than they were 4 years ago, STB systems can take the place of the HD players and using H.264 AVC and a video card hooked up to an HD set, you cannot tell a difference b/t a 10MB H.264 AVC file and a HD DVD/BD disc.
Other than the bitrate value you mention, I couldn't agree more. Downloadable is where this is all heading, probably sooner than later. Both HD formats are taking too long to come to a point of reason, BD is by far the most sensible for data storage reasons, and can also be locked for CC unlocking, but...too much, too late might be what happens to it.
SACD failed for similar reasons, and more importantly, it failed because the marketing failed to impress the public. There is a chance however, that the marketing of HD on disc won't fail, so it's potentially more a question of who can educate/market more effectively to the public. Neither camp is winning that battle right now.

What's missing from both the HD-DVD camp and the BD camp is a chance for consumers to see what the end product looks like in real life.

The only place I've seen it publicly is Circuit City, but amazingly enough they do show it competently.

People who haven't seen it would have to think "oh, it's as good as 1080i HDTV," but that is not correct. It really does look shockingly better than that (on a good system).

It's surprising that there are so many HD-DVD movie titles available (160+), yet I can't recall ever having seen a single HD-DVD player advertised by a local retailer... Why?

It's surprising that there are so many HD-DVD movie titles available (160+), yet I can't recall ever having seen a single HD-DVD player advertised by a local retailer... Why?
===========
Toshiba is the only company that makes a standalone player. The first model was the HD-A1 which I bought. They had a more expensive version called the HD-XA1 which doesn't add much. My son owns that one. Walmart puts their name on the HD-A1 and calls it the HD-D1. Only a select few Walmarts have them. Before that a few Walmarts carried the RCA branded Toshiba HD-A1 called the HDV5000.

The newer models are the Toshiba HD-A2 and the HD-XA2. Prices went up along with the removal of the 5.1 analog I/O for True HD Audio. You will need an HDMI connection on your receiver with the new models to get True HD in 5.1.
Microsoft X-box 360 has an add-on player that will play HD-DVDs. The PS3 will play Blu-ray...........sort of.

The HD-DVD discs can be found at Best Buy, but many on the AV Science forums have reported that a lot of Best Buy stores have downplayed or even hidden the discs and the players from customers and have promoted Blu-ray instead incorrectly calling it "superior" using what sounds like a badly rehearsed script.

I have run into this myself at Best Buy as well as my son in the Best Buy where he lives. One Best Buy store had the HD DVD display hidden behind a bunch of televisions and turned around facing the wall to boot. I have no idea what is going on with that, but apparently whatever it is, it is not working very well.

Select Walmart stores have the discs. Fishkill, NY for example has them as well as the HD-D1 players. Target stores have them. Target has a chevron shaped divider that says Blu-ray on one side and HD DVD on the other. There are about 15 titles on each respective side. Amazon carries them, Netflix rents them, and a lot of DVD online stores sell them.

Personally I love them, but that is not why I bought the HD-A1 (from Crutchfield by the way). I bought it for it's ability to upconvert SD DVDs to use with a projector when I show my videos to large groups.

I originally bought a Cyberhome DVD655 for that purpose after reading a thread on this forum recommending that unit. The results are absolutely terrible. I cannot tell under any circumstances that there is ANY upconversion taking place at all.

Not so with the Toshiba. When set to 1080i the results are incredibly good. The improvement is sometimes dramatic (depending upon the quality of the original) and when projected, it really makes a difference if you are trying to show off your work.

So after buying the player and the projector I made a homemade 80 inch 4:3 screen that I used for 16:9 and 4:3 presentations and then tried it at home in a light controlled room using my first HD DVD - "The Phantom of the Opera". My jaw dropped when I saw it. So I started to get into the home theater scene rearranging my living room and squeezing all the family members and friends in there that liked "coming to the movie theater" in my house. I ended up building a 5 foot x 8 foot screen for the deck and then moved it into my living room at the end of the summer, ceiling mounting the projector with a quick release. My living room reminds me of an IMAX theater now.

The whole thing is really addictive.

John

I had to laugh reading the previous post. I also bought one of those Cyberhome and my friend bought an uprezzing Samsung. Neither of us could see any difference in the look from either "uprezzing" player no matter how hard we looked. We both came to the conclusion that "uprezzing" doesn't actually do anything that an average HDTV doesn't already do just as well. After reading your post, I realize that it's not uprezzing that's bad, it's just the versions of uprezzing that I've seen so far.

I'll be interested in seeing what the PS3 does as far as uprezzing SD DVDs. Like my kids say: it sucks having to wait until Christmas ;-(

>>>Downloadable is where this is all heading<<<

Obviously your broadband connection is a lot faster than mine, but that's what the various service providers are encouraging (particularly mine). Presently I'm in the "old fashioned" camp who like to have a disk to play rather than have to spend 10-15 minutes downloading an SD movie and rather longer for one in HD. When downloaded do you store on hard drive, do you burn a disk or simply download each time you want to view? Seems to me to be a conflict between the desire for higher quality and the desire to gain immediate access. The idea that cinemas will download movies seems to be a no-goer (with present technology) and in practice distribution on hard disk is far more likely. Maybe BD is an alternative to that, and to me is a more attractive technolgy. The initial cost of BD equipment and disks is a temporary problem; I paid A$1000 for my Sony DVD player (I've had it a while) and see the current A$100 players as a natural outcome of large scale production.

That's the problem with Best Buy or Circuit City. You have to know what you want and the model number before you walk into the store or order it online.When I bought my new LCD tv they dropped the price 400 dollars before Thanksgiving and the next couple of days raised it back up 400 dollars. Circuit City did the exact same maneuver.
JJK

Excellent article with very valid conclusion. The silly betaray people need to get their heads out of the sand, it's already dead for the movie business.

BigRockies.com Your Home in the Rockies!

You said "On the other side of the coin, Samsung sold out of their entire allotment in the USA for BD players. There are a few around, my local Best Buy had 3 in stock, but Samsung claims they can't deliver more for a 'while.' "

Yes and apparently they had a high return rate for defects.


BigRockies.com Your Home in the Rockies!

Just a note for anyone interested. I went to Best Buy today and noticed that they are clearing out the Toshiba HD-A1 at $299.95 - a full $150 less than I paid for mine. In some cases only the floor model is available.

John

Obviously your broadband connection is a lot faster than mine, but that's what the various service providers are encouraging (particularly mine).

Verizon is pushing a service where they install a fiber optic connection to your home for Internet, phone, and TV. You can download a video (for a fee, of course) SD or HD, to your set top box and watch it. A friend of mine is a VP in a small company that is doing something very similar.

I have other friends who work for Ericsson. They are selling new GSM mobile phone equipment to T-Mobile and Cingular that will enable broadband Internet access from your cellular phone connection (which can be connected to your laptop).

Times are changing!

"... and some players that can even play both, "

Technically there's no reason they can't except that the Blu-Ray license expressly forbids it.

Steve M.

>>>>Verizon is pushing a service where they install a fiber optic connection <<<

It will be a long fibre to Melbourne, but obviously many people will use "download to view once" services and when the viewing device of choice is an iPod then quality and viewing environment isn't of concern to many. Those people, who may become a major market segment, probably won't be customers for BluRay (or any other) but I believe that the market for the quality viewing experience will remain. A good film will be viewed many times. The major volume of video is view once (if at all).

Verizon is pushing a service where they install a fiber optic connection to your home for Internet, phone, and TV. You can download a video (for a fee, of course) SD or HD, to your set top box and watch it.

Which is fine...

...until everyone in your neighborhood has one, too, and is doing the same.

Then the trunks clog, and we're right back to where we are now. :^)

I have no facts to speak from, but I would guess those fiber optic homes have a better trunk supporting them. I mean, heck, my local home network could easily support 100 users at a 5mbps speed. And that's on copper. The technology exists to go a lot faster than that. OC192 for example. Not to mention that most trunk infrastructurs should have more than one pipe they can light up.

Personaly, I think the biggest problem we have in the US are ISPs being afraid of losing their land-line cash flow by supporting high outgoing speeds from the home. i.e. VoIP.

My local ISP (having a monopoly) only offers 384Kbps upload speeds to home users. Apparently is't not a technology problem because you can order a business DSL package for $170 and get 768Kbps.

I drool every time I read about those foreign countries and their $40/month 2Mbps upload speeds.

"Personaly, I think the biggest problem we have in the US are ISPs being afraid of losing their land-line cash flow by supporting high outgoing speeds from the home. i.e. VoIP."

More than ten years ago before the Internet, the president of a very popular BBS software company who was formerly a CTO at one of the Bell companies (before it was reabsorbed) stated that "it costs the phone companies so little to carry a phone call that it costs them more to meter and bill the call than for the consumer to make it."

Steve M.

I have no facts to speak from, but I would guess those fiber optic homes have a better trunk supporting them.

The problem is the switchers/routers more than anything else.

If everyone is donwloading the same thing at the same time (i.e. watching some live event, TV show, today's New Release), the bandwith is adequate.

But muxing thirty-leven different streams...it will choke.

Now, if the ISPs have download centers where they can pre-load and cache most of it for their area's users, it will help a lot. Even better if they have more local caches/substations.

Of course, you'll still get idiots like me who want to watch "Mister Blandings Builds His Dream House" while everyone ele is watching "The Bourne Redundancy", and that'll mess things up again.

You said "But muxing thirty-leven different streams...it will choke."

Numerous TELCOs across Canada already doing it. Switches, Routers, are irrelevant, TELCO's use mass (and I do mean mass) bandwidth MPLS based networks to run all the gigabytes you can handle. OC192 at it's massive rate is a drop in the bucket to these networks so bandwidth is irrelevant. The primary barrier has ZERO to do with technology - it has 95% to do with people being so entrenched with cable gargbage they are too lazy to switch.

BigRockies.com Your Home in the Rockies!