OT: The Big Rush Has Started

Coursedesign wrote on 6/1/2010, 1:35 AM
Financial Times on a new computer era

This is not about preferences for open source or this or that vendor, but about a huge shift caused by a monopolist's lack of concern about their customer's needs. It has happened to quite a few companies throughout history.

I predict we'll see a surprisingly rapid ramp-up of large companies jumping ship for the same reason as the 10,000 employee global company in the article, because CIOs will say they can't be so exposed anymore.

Simultaneously, especially non-geek consumers have already started the march towards locked-down computers that just plain work, such as the new generation of tablets (2M iPads sold in the first 60 days, a multitude of cheap Android tablets coming before the year is over, and one or more WebOS tablets from HP).

This will also spread to more and more consumer desktops (increasingly integrated á la iMac and some recent Gateway and HP computers), as well as specific categories of professional tools.

This is nothing less than a revolution, and it will be very important even for SCS to start thinking about this immediately.

It of course presents a good personal opportunity for making money by shorting "the railroad company" that didn't realize its customers were more interested in reliable transportation than in just paying for anything that moved on two tracks with the same track width as Roman army chariots (our railroad standard, no kidding).

Of course our existing machines will continue to do their thing for years to come, but they'll all end up at the computer museum a bit sooner than perhaps expected.

And there will be holdouts. "They can have my white box when they pry it out of my cold, dead hands."

As well as enthusiasts who do 100% of their own software and hardware maintenance and write their own applications like in the olden days.

Well, it was all getting to be a bit too predictable, wasn't it?


John_Cline wrote on 6/1/2010, 2:08 AM
Oh, here we go again... How did I know that this was going to involve Apple in some way?

Consumers very well may be heading in the direction of tablet computers. They are "computer-like appliances" rather than "real" computers. Most consumers don't need full-blown computers.

I shoot and edit video for a living and I absolutely need all the horsepower, storage and screen real estate that I can get. I don't see any kind of tablet computer filling my professional needs any time soon, if ever. As far as operating systems are concerned, maybe the Google Chrome OS will eventually be a viable OS for video editing, but they are going to have to come up with a LOT of software tools to match what I can already do with the plethora of tools available for the PC.

This post has a "sky is falling" feel to it.
farss wrote on 6/1/2010, 2:19 AM
If Google think anything else is any more secure they're in for a bit of a shock. Take a look at the recently found iPhone security flaw.

On the other hand I know many people who'll have nothing to do with Google because they're a massive security risk.

John_Cline wrote on 6/1/2010, 3:05 AM
A number of independent security analysts now rate Windows 7 as one of the most secure operating systems. This is really saying something about Microsoft since Windows has been the biggest target.
farss wrote on 6/1/2010, 3:39 AM
It's also got the fastest OpenGL implementation, beats OSX and Linux.

apit34356 wrote on 6/1/2010, 3:59 AM
"beats OSX" oh my god, Farss, you open the door for endless commentaries about miss-guided anti-Apple reports! ;-)
Chienworks wrote on 6/1/2010, 4:45 AM
One of my cow-orkers picked up an iPad last week and asked me to play with it for a bit to see what i thought of it (he's always pushing Mac on me). It took me all of 15 seconds to realize these things:

1 - The screen is nice! But it is dark and small.
2 - It's HEAVY.
3 - I would get severe headaches and wrist strain if i used it for more than a few minutes. The thing is just nearly impossible to type on and look at at the same time.
4 - I remember, again and again, why i never got an iPhone.
5 - Lord, i HATE Apple's way of running a computer.

Yeah, i could see having one around in my backpack for emergency work access wherever i am. On the other hand, i can get a netbook that is a real computer with an actual keyboard and a decent, sensible OS for half the price and 1/3 the weight of an iPad.
farss wrote on 6/1/2010, 5:39 AM
It doesn't stop with their underperforming products either. I've always referred to their fanboys as lemmings never expecting they actually are. The proof is here. Maybe it's just the ones that inhabit the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney that'll queue for hours in foul weather when they could have walked a few metres to buy an iPad from a non Apple store over the counter with no queue and probably cheaper too.

kkolbo wrote on 6/1/2010, 5:49 AM

I have read the article and I don't see any mass exodus indicated there. Google has a number of valid reasons for shifting. Other companies have reasons for their choices. What I see is that there are choices now accepted by IT directors that in the past would have not been considered. I think we are seeing a recognition that it is no longer a one size fits all world in computing.

I am glad to see that that consumer targeted devices are being manufactured and purchased. For years, the benefits of computers were limited to hackers. More and more, the average person is holding one (knowingly) in their hands. Hacker devices will still be there for a long time, but they may become more expensive because they will be more targeted.

Major applications for industry (data driven applications) began a long switch to client server and web portal interfaces many years ago. This changed the need for little more than web browser devices for many things. This transition has been in progress for many years and is still in progress.

Computers and their applications will change. They have changed consistently since they arrived on desktops. It makes it fun, but the sky is not falling. Not yet at least.

deusx wrote on 6/1/2010, 6:44 AM
>>>2M iPads sold in the first 60 days, a multitude of cheap Android tablets coming before the year is over, and one or more WebOS tablets from HP<<<<

Tickle me Elmo or cabbage patch dolls would sell around some Christmastimes far faster than that, so what exactly is your point?

WTF does iPad have to with a computer. It is a clunky toy for semi or fully retarded people. You can be more creative with an etch a sketch than an iPad.
Grazie wrote on 6/1/2010, 7:23 AM
>It is a clunky toy for semi or fully retarded people

Please explain?

Coursedesign wrote on 6/1/2010, 7:44 AM
I absolutely need all the horsepower, storage and screen real estate that I can get.

Like I said, "This will also spread to[...]specific categories of professional tools."

This post has a "sky is falling" feel to it.

More like the "clouds are clearing" :O).

It's a maturation of the industry similar to the early days of the automobile.

Today you don't see even a fraction of the number of car owners tinkering deeply with their cars, because the complexities that are necessary to provide for today's performance and pollution control needs are sealed within. Adding bling and stripes is easy though.

I think we'll soon see editing machines that can fast forward and reverse at a high frame rate with no skipped frames, just like on a flatbed Moviola for example.

And how many editors even want an accessible OS? Just get the work done already, and it is clear that no matter which of today's desktop OSes you use, it is a distraction from billable hours.

Oh, there will be very nice niche machines with OSes for tinkerers, and Linux is already used for high end post production rather widely.

The rest of the population (even pros) just want "apps" and they expect their car, er, computer to take care of the rest: all they want is a go pedal and a stop pedal, a steering wheel, and a few gauges.

The horsepower you can tell from how fast you can move now, without being distracted by an absolute need to spend weekends under the hood to fix what broke during the previous week (or in the computer case, deal with very frequent security updates and bug fixes).

It's not just about the OS, it's also about things like Adobe PDF and Flash, which together are currently responsible for more security issues than the underlying OSes, but have been thought to be necessary.

We've been promised secure, compartmentalized memory management for 25 years now, but both of Microsoft's recent valiant efforts have been compromised, and apparently nobody wants to take the performance hit on the hardware side to do it right on that side.

Google at least is trying some fresh things in their Chrome browser to prevent one tab from killing the whole browser.
K-Decisive wrote on 6/1/2010, 9:12 AM
I don't know. I'm reading between the lines here. I would have to imagine that google is a huge target for an attack, and they would have got hit no matter what OS they were using. Given they have their own OS brewing, it's probably easy for them to blame windows for their own problems. I run AVG and I never have a problem.....then again, I'm pretty sure I'm a much smaller target.

Personally, I would love to see another OS that could actually compete with Win and Mac. I have no love for either. I sent about two hours this weekend shuffling footage from 'mac' drives over to a 'normal' drive the hard way because Macs ( at least the one I was using ) refused to understand something as simple as NTFS.......

I would also love to see Vegas and a few other things run on another OS.
Dach wrote on 6/1/2010, 9:44 AM
I didn't read the article, but based on some comments made and based on what I have experienced I predict that more consumer target devices will continue to be produced (ipads, netbooks, etc.) and they will meet the majority of house holds expectations.

How many homes actually even need a dual core processor?

Desktop computers (thats where the higher systems are) will become a smaller and smaller market, which is already happening.

A desktop computer will become a "professional" tool... to run "professional" applications that will be found in "professional" work places.

Coursedesign wrote on 6/1/2010, 9:45 AM
Macs ( at least the one I was using ) refused to understand something as simple as NTFS.

Google could have told you that OS X reads NTFS by default and Snow Leopard allows writing too, or you can use a variety of free utilities to add it to earlier OS X versions (NTFS-3G, etc.).

For Windows, there is MacDrive that makes Windows read and write Mac volumes seamlessly.

I would also love to see Vegas and a few other things run on another OS.

Both Avid and Adobe are dual-platform now since years, and I think it has really helped them.
rmack350 wrote on 6/1/2010, 10:12 AM
Please explain?

Grazie, Deusx has a major bug up his behind about Apple. He's actually more consistent and reliable as an Apple detractor than Bjorn is as an Apple cheerleader.

I think the takeaway here is that the personal computer market is probably saturated and the growth of appliances like the Ipad and slates is probably going to cannibalize the market. There are a lot of people using PCs full time who really don't need to. That would include my mother who just discovered the Kindle, and the woman I met on vacation who described a keyboard as a typewriter and a monitor as a TV. These people really don't need a PC.

How does that affect us? These will be one of the many devices we might need to tailor content to. No, we're not going to edit on an Ipad.


craftech wrote on 6/1/2010, 10:31 AM
As I have stated many times on this and other forums, Microshaft consistently builds a security flaw into every OS they develop because the last thing they are willing to do is the only thing that will work. And that is to separate the browser (Internet Explorer) from the Operating System.

So with every new operating system Microshaft comes up with their groupies will always claim that it is the most secure when it can never ever be thanks to Microshaft trying everything to work within their self imposed self serving requirement that the Browser and Operating be inseparably linked together.

rmack350 wrote on 6/1/2010, 11:10 AM
I don't think this needs to be an OS pissing match. You choose an OS because it supports the tools you want to use. A touch-only interface will probably never support most of the tools we use. Maybe a successor down the road will do so as the touch paradigm matures but I suspect that touch screens are actually going to be extremely RSI inducing for anything beyond casual use.

I think something like an Ipad competes more with TV's and book readers. It's handy when you want to read on the toilet or the couch. If it were waterproof you could read in the tub.

My S.O. and I were in an Apple store a month ago to get him a MacBook and the salesboy took a poke at selling us an Ipad. He mentioned how great it would be in the classroom, to which I replied "Sure, if it were $50.00". You just can't expect schools and poor parents to adopt expensive technology, but if you can get the price point down then you can hand these to your kids, hang them on the fridge, whatever you want.


K-Decisive wrote on 6/1/2010, 11:50 AM
Thanks Course,
I was working on laptops that didn't belong to me, so I didn't have those options, but I'll defiantly look into macdrive for my own use.

Know about Avid and Adobe, I guess what I was saying is I would love to see Vegas follow suit, but that may be dreaming. Most people I know are using premier or FC, I'm just all for people having choices.

One thing that Vegas never gets credit for, is that on one hand it's competing with FC, Adobe and (maybe Avid). At the same time it's also competing with pro tools, Q-base, and (p.o.s) sonar.
Coursedesign wrote on 6/1/2010, 11:52 AM
Some universities are now handing out iPads widely to test how they work for electronic textbooks.

(Those could have been Kindles, but those trials had to be stopped when it was found they were illegal to use for anything receiving federal funding, due to product limitations that made them unusable for certain handicap categories. Oh well. Apple has handicap support built into everything on the OS level, and it is quite good.)

This Rob Enderle story was so funny I almost had to change my Jockeys

"The reason MS has had a losing streak for the last 10 years is that Apple placed a fifth column of MS employees in the company to sabotage their efforts."

"...a series of "mistakes" that were beneficial to Apple has me wondering who's really been calling the shots in Redmond."

"the one saying I've made famous is that "perception is 100 percent of reality," and the perception is that Apple did and continues to beat Microsoft."

"Apple's weakness was AT&T." (It's now clear that no other network had the capacity to support the iPhone's data traffic, and AT&T's 3G network is 2x as fast as anyone else's, as measured across 50,000 locations by an independent company).

(The new 4G networks coming from Sprint and Verizon this fall will be 4x faster than their 3G, but still only reach half the speed of AT&T's and T-Mobile's 3G networks after their fall upgrade because those networks use different technology).

I think this guy must be living in Humboldt County, Calif.

Very funny, and he has provided reliable delivery of claim chowder for years.

rmack350 wrote on 6/1/2010, 12:16 PM
I lived behind the Redwood Curtain for my college years. Don't know about Enderle.

This really isn't about anything Apple. It's about new media appliances that will take the place of computers for all those people that don't need one. We'll be producing content for them just like we do for PCs.

"Passing out" $500.00 appliances at a university is not the same as using these in grade schools, which I guess was 100% of my reality. Universities charge for books. An electronic reader makes total sense. Grade schools (in California) generally don't have budgets for books at all.


John_Cline wrote on 6/1/2010, 1:14 PM
Course, you have consumed the Apple Kool-Aid and there is no turning back for you. Let's just say that I don't agree with most of your statements. I have some friends that I now avoid because they're always in my face about "Apple this and Apple that." I used to enjoy their company but no more, they have become more annoying than members of a certain religious cult that used to hang out at the airports.

You're suggesting that there will be a new video editor category in the form of a dedicated hardware system. Uh, they have existed for years, Panasonic made a system (and may still) and there is also the Casablanca system, which is still being sold.


I'm invested in Microsoft products, I get all my work done and make a terrific living, so I have no compelling reason to switch. My Windows machines never crash and I have never suffered a virus or security breach despite the fact that all my machines are connected to the Internet. I get along just fine with my Android phone and have service in many places where the AT&T is non-existent. When in the outer reaches of New Mexico, my iPhone buddies often ask me if they can use my phone because they have "no bars." So what if AT&T's network is 2x faster if you can't get to it and how much faster is it going to load up that web page or serve up my e-mail than my Verizon network?

Hare Krisna and have a nice day.
Coursedesign wrote on 6/1/2010, 1:53 PM
You're suggesting that there will be a new video editor category in the form of a dedicated hardware system. Uh, they have existed for years, Panasonic made a system (and may still) and there is also the Casablanca system, which is still being sold.

I'm reminded of the response Walt Disney received when he proposed building a theme park:
"Yuck! Drunks and garbage all over the place and horrible for families!"

To which he said, "That's just my point! I am going to create a theme park that is totally clean and family friendly."

I am very familiar with the dedicated hardware editing systems, and how miserable they are. Many years ago, I was considering a Casablanca system, but soon found out that it didn't fit my needs and it was driving other users crazy.

Don't forget XPRI and various field editing systems, now that was and is in a different league.

Of course you have to pick a mobile network that works in your area. The good news is that in the major cities, any network (except maybe Sprint?) is good because they have a high customer density that can pay for a lot of cell towers.

I hear that AT&T's 3G network is totally overloaded in NYC and SFO, but that should be cured this fall in their upgrade of the 3G network to twice the speed of the other nets' upcoming 4G) and much fatter pipes.

how much faster is it going to load up that web page or serve up my e-mail than my Verizon network?

Quite a bit if you're picking up a large PDF from a web site, or e-mails with large attachments, which I get regularly. Then there is watching video streaming and doing podcast downloads, as well as streaming outbound video via Streambox Live.

Now this intolerance of hearing about other products, it sounds like the easiest way to fix that is to surround yourself with only people who agree with you on everything.

As for this forum, it only takes a few seconds check a post to see if Apple or Avid or Adobe is mentioned. Then you can immediately hit the back button (or Alt-Left Arrow in FF).

Seems a reasonable accommodation for the sake of the others here who don't share your views on professional information (except maybe Apit).

No one here has suggested that you change the system that works for you. I use three NLEs on two hardware platforms so far, and may add a third hardware & OS platform for special needs.

Works for me, and I am never offended if someone says they prefer something else (like say PP).

Laurence wrote on 6/1/2010, 2:09 PM
I must say that Windows 7 64 bit is just wonderful. I don't envy the grass on the mac side of the fence at all. Vista Pro 64bit was horrible. The Mac OS was starting to look really good when I was using Windows Vista.
John_Cline wrote on 6/1/2010, 2:09 PM
Personally, my main objection to Apple products are the people that use them, not necessarily the products themselves. ("Dude, yeah sure, Apple is great, now get OUT of my face about it.") From an industrial design perspective, they are impressive and I can fully appreciate that. In my opinion, they are a little overpriced for what they do, but I guess some people don't mind paying extra for the "bling."

Some time back I knew Bill Gates rather well and I've met Steve Jobs. From purely a personality standpoint, my experience was that Steve is an arrogant jerk and Bill is an engaging nerd. Being somewhat nerdish myself, I'd much rather give my money to Bill.

I'm sure that there are people that like my work but just get along better with someone else and choose to work with the person that more closely fits their personality regardless of skill. That's cool.