OT: What will 2006 bring us?

p@mast3rs wrote on 12/28/2005, 12:20 PM

Touched on in another thread, 2006 is shaping up to be hopefully a very promising year in the multimedia/video world.

2006 is the year when we will see the first MacTel machines that will be capable of running not only OSX and Mac software, but Windows code bases as well in a dual boot enviornment. One thing for sure is that we wont be quick to see major price drops any time soon. Still, one must admit that having the ability to dual boot between Mac OSX and Windows XP/Vista will be a treat and its about time that Apple give their users more for their money than just over priced hardware. For those that want to give FCP a try, this is a no brainer. Perhaps this move will inspire all the major NLEs to work together to find a way to allow projects to be switched and used in other NLEs more stabily.

Just as last year, the big buzz word was HD. We saw many announcements from companys offering HDV cameras, HD content, to NLEs playing catch up with Vegas and offering HDV editing.I am willing to bet that HD will once again be the buzz word of 2006 only on a much much larger scale.

The obvious thing that 2006 will be the long awaited yet over hyped Blu Ray and HD-DVD. Over hyped in the sense that we keep hearing about the technology and studios and companies supporting it, but for someone who doesnt own a multimillion dollar corporation, getting a look at one of the devices and the content on the discs, it is borderline vaporware. The big battle this year will be between who can actually get consumer devices out first. While HD-DVD lacks the space that Blu Ray offers, it is more than made up from H.264 AVC and VC-1 codecs.

Speaking of H.264 AVC and VC-1, that in itself positions itself as a battle. While both codecs are already supported in both camps, the various developers of H.264 AVC and its companies will wage war against MS and its VC-1 codec. Who will win out? Both offer excellent quality so royalties may play a major role in companies adoptions to authoring. We shall see.

I expect huge things this year for NLEs and the upcoming HD craze. Vegas has always been a front runner on the cutting edge when it supports new technologies. I remember when Vegas was the first and to my knowledge, the ONLY NLE that supported Vorbis audio. Companies like Avid and Adobe, have sat quietly in the past while Vegas paved the way. Nonetheless, will Sony be the first out of the gate to support Hi Def authoring with its Vegas7/DVDA4 line? My sources say, unfortunately, NO. Adobe is heavily rumored to be launching a total complete Hi Def authoring solution early in 2006. Not fear though, once Adobe releases thier collection, surely it will be a long time before any new and old bugs are fixed from previous versions. However, like HD-DVD and Blu Ray, first to market might be enough to provde the advantage even if only temporary.

I also expect 2006 to not only bring HD set tops and players but even more portable devices. The PSP and Ipod created the "video to go" craze that doesnt seem to be ending any time in the future. I expect Sony to either release a bigger PSP with a larger screen and to finally unlock the entire resolution and even add a hard drive to combat Apple's onslaught. Apple is sure to not only offer bigger screens but larger hard drives as well.

I think 2006 could possibly be the death of MiniDV/SD editing. Sony offered lower priced HDV cameras which should only come down in price through the year and possibly position itself as a must have Christmas gift of 2006. While companies like Canon and Pansonic finally enter the mix, it still looks to be 2-3 years before they can begin to compete with Sony on the consumer HDV level.

I also expect piracy to continue at alarming rates. Directly in its crosshairs will be the proection schemes of the new HD devices. If any of the backers of the technologies were smart, they would hire DVD John and pay him a crap load of money so he doesnt bust their protection in the first couple weeks or months. Otherwise, all this talk of managed and protected content was for nothing leaving consumers footing the bills for companies and their failures to succeed in winning an unwinnable war.

WRT to online content, I believe 2006 holds the serious possiblities that Indy filmers focus on the net for a main means of distribution. Apple is positioning itself to sell videos of music and TV shows and one can be sure that movies arent that far behind. But for your indy filmers, competing with the big boys (studios) will prove to be quite as difficult and will turn to the net to make their sales. The porn industry has proven that there is a demand for online delivery of content, abeit a controversial and lack of video quality one. With faster pipes to the net in every household, IPTV and the like will surely enjoy increase use and exposure.

I personally think by next Chrstimas, HD sets will be so saturated in the market, that we will see them for $200-$300. Maybe thats too optimistic but consumers will have to have something to lay their new HD content that will surely be marketed and shoved down their throats this year. The smartest thing a company could do right now would be to flood the marketplace with lower cost items to gain as much marketshare as you can.

While I am sure there are many other things I have overlooked or missed, 2006 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting years for multimedia. Whether it be on the web, cell phones, portable players, or set top players, their will be a major need for content and that definitely bodes well for all in the video/entertainment industry.

Happy New Year and Video Editing in 2006.

P.S. I reserve the right to be wrong on some or all of my predicitons but I'll bet I am right more than I am wrong. :)

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Comments

Padre wrote on 12/29/2005, 7:01 AM

obviously piracy is an issue, and wil most likely continue to be.. but the point i was making with regard to Divx, was teh fact that its a feasable delivery method for HD material to the consumer market TODAY.. its all about education.. sure its a little more expensive for the client, but if they want HD productions and theyre willing to pay for it, a viable REAL solution currently exists that doesnt require Media Centre.. whether piracy has anythng to do with it or not.. (in this case not) is not the issue.. its teh issue of producing somethign which the consumer feels theyre not being stiffed by the manufacturers and being forced to buy things they may already have in another format (Being SD DVD) As for pirated movies, thats another matter altogether, but to be honst with you, it wouldnt surprise me if theyre at least tryin to cash in on some of those losses the movie houses are experiencing..

FrigidNDEditing wrote on 12/29/2005, 7:16 AM

Well, just so you guys know - i have a friend - who is dual booting his DELL XPS Gen 2 laptop with Win XP, and OSx86 (he managed to get it off of the torrents, wanted to see if it was possible, it is). He can boot up into OSX or into XP. Not much in the way of drivers etc.. for the OSx86 as of yet, but there aren't any MacIntel's out there yet either. He's optimistic that things will improve.

Just thougth I'd let you guys know.

Dave

Coursedesign wrote on 12/29/2005, 10:13 AM

i see Matrox putting all their eggs in one basket with the AXIO... bad move to run the PP engine only, but hey its their decision right.. pity the AXIOS almost perfect HW setup is stuck with a tedious and outdated NLE...

I have seen the AXIO quite a bit recently, and the first impressions were very good. They picked PP because it has the most open and extendable architecture of any NLE (and that is not marketing speak either), which made it possible for them to make AXIO mostly "invisible", other than the great realtime performance with uncompressed and HD material. And you can use Photoshop filters, have the superior integration with Photoshop and After Effects, and edit in 10-bit without losing quality, etc. etc.

And the new PP coming out shortly may still rain on Vegas' parade.

(that didn't sound quite right, but you know what I mean...)

Sony will come out with 720p in a camera after global warming has thawed hell again, after it froze over the second time...

I'm sure they are focusing their efforts on 1080p instead.

Watching regular DVDs in HDTV can be very rewarding, with very good upscaling now available at a lower cost. It's particularly easy to get a good picture from animation footage, but even "live" footage can be stunning now.

In addition to my HDMI/DVI-fed 9' front projection setup, I just hooked up a Gateway 20.1" 1680x1050 LCD [computer] monitor to check the picture on it, from both OTA HD (broadcast 1920x1080 without cable or satellite recompression) and uprezzed DVD.

This was a loaner while getting another monitor fixed, but it sells for $599 full list (recently going for $499), and it has component, DVI, S-video, and composite inputs, as well as a built-in Faroudja DCDi circuit. Playing Kundun on this thing was just stunning. If the screen had been surreptitiously put in a Sony $50K HD production monitor enclosure, I would have pointed to the picture and said, "See how much more you can get out of an expensive CRT."

The rich color saturation was astonishing (and clean, too), and the perceived sharpness was not that much below real HD (actually as good as much of what passes for HD on cable).

I would imagine that the Dell 2405FPW 24" LCD monitor could be even better, but I haven't tried it yet. Of course it doesn't have DCDi, but that is available in many DVD players.

(and before the flamers get too pumped up :O): Yes, I have seen the $50K Sony HD monitors close up on set, and I have seen them do things that LCDs can't do yet. It's amazing what you can get for only 5 Salmon P. Chase or 10 James Madison or 50 Grover Cleveland or 100 William McKinley, or 500 Uncle Benny if you insist on using only what's in currrent circulation... )

BrianStanding wrote on 12/29/2005, 1:53 PM

Here are my fearless predictions:

I think you'll see Apple encroach on more and more of Sony's traditional turf, and I think both companies will eventually jettison divisions that made them famous -- but for very opposite reasons. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple repositions itself as a consumer gadget, software and internet distribution company, and begins phasing out manufacturing computer hardware. How much of Apple's recent profits are due to iPods, iTunes and Final Cut Pro, and how much are from actually selling Macs? And with all those MacTels looming on the horizon...

Sony, on the other hand, will soon be forced to get lean and mean to stem horrific losses and restore consumer confidence. That will probably mean divesting itself of recent unprofitable, difficult or awkward acquisitions, like Sony BMG or Sony Pictures (or even... gasp!... Sony Media Software!!!!). It might even mean discontinuing old product lines that are no longer profitable -- like televisions, Walkmans, or VAIO computers, to focus on its more competitve products, like PlayStation, professional video equipment or.... there must be others.... I just can't think of any right now ;-)

Might not all happen in 2006, but I'll bet you'll see significant steps in those directions before the year is through.

JJKizak wrote on 12/29/2005, 2:44 PM

Padre:
Don't agree with you even a little bit on the Z1 lens quality. When comparing to actually received HD broadcasts on an HDTV CRT 99.9% of the people cannot tell the difference between the Z! footage and the Super-Duper Magnificent 100K broadcast cameras. In my opinion there is so little difference it's a non-factor.
Name any HDTV program and most of the time I can cut it to shreds. TV stations locally are still using digital 16 x 9 trying to pass it off as HD on all of their mobile remote stuff.

JJK

rmack350 wrote on 12/29/2005, 4:41 PM

Apple will write a code into the DMI area of the BIOS. This is also done for most mass marketed Windows systems. HP does it and it prevents the buyer from using their system recovery discs on any system but the one it was intended for. The end result is that you will not be able to install your Mac OS onto another computer besides the Mac it came on.

This will not prevent you from installing windows, assuming you can also install a boot loader like lilo or grub or something. But beware, Windows may not go in too easily as a "second" OS.

As an aside, for Linux users, Ubuntu looks like a really good linux distro. My 78 year old dad has been using it and promoting it to other seniors as a simple desktop system. It will definitely not make for a good edit system, but if the system can be palatable to the elderly, who are a bit less plastic, mentally, then it will have a lot of promise. Consider that, in a red-state world, many seniors will not have enough money for health care. A free OS running on older, cheaper hardware would be a godsend.

Rob Mack

rmack350 wrote on 12/29/2005, 4:57 PM

We had a local vendor bring us an Axio system to try out for a week. The demo was really impressive. Very, very fast compositing. We are looking at buying three to replace our Media100 systems and they may also make our 844 system superfluous. The 844 is more powerful but it's also a dead end.

We'll be moving off the Mac if we do this, of course.

This vendor has a lot of media100 clients and I expect that much of that base in our area will move to the Axio.

The guy who did the demo, incidentally, also uses Vegas. And he likes it. Says it's a great prosumer system and it's main failing is slow rendering. He also likes DVDA.

Rob Mack

Bob Greaves wrote on 12/29/2005, 9:12 PM

I just want 2006 to be better than 2005.

In 2005 we were flooded out of our house for over a week and it took us two months to clean up. Our basement which housed my studio was filled to within two inches of the floor joists. Then after cleaning it up, a tree fell on my house during a wind storm damaging the roof. I had problems with a health insurance carrier and complained to NY State. The insurance company claimed my daughter did not live with me which triggered a tax audit. They withheld my return until the audit was complete. It took 5 months - I got my refund finally just a week ago. My motherboard died after the flood. I replaced it and the replacement died along with two hard drives. It turned out to be a bad power supply. There were several other expensive snafoos.

All in all the year cost me an extra $6,000.00 above what it otherwise would have cost me. So 2006 will be good no matter what technology does.

apit34356 wrote on 12/30/2005, 11:29 AM

Sony will not sell Sony pictures or Sony BMG. Content is the future, right now, Sony is buying more "content" all the time. Sony lets Apple do the promotional work and Disney is getting on the bandwagon also. Though this is mostly to slow if not stop MS from becoming the gateway for media distr. on computer networks and home media centers.

2006 - PSP continues to grow,
- PSP3 opens the HD movie market and quickly "kills" the X360 as the
"all in the one media center",
- MS pressures computer venders to promote the X360 with the media
center software, - MS will be forced to redesign the X360 with new
addons.
- Apple will continue to beg for the cell processor, but long as Steve
promotes Apple with Al Gore, "the creator of the Internet", not likely.
Apple can be a salesman, one of many, but the sole promoter.
Apple can sell content, but not our engineering as Apple's.
I think the Apple OS, with the cell hardware and Sony software would be a nice pro-consumer product. Though, XPRI,( plus all the extras, like HD live), on a cell laptop that could work in the field, at >$8000.00 would be better.

Steve Mann wrote on 12/30/2005, 2:12 PM

"Oh and i also want to win lotto and maybe have another baby... practicing is too much fun though..."

What fun - practicing the Lotto.

dand9959 wrote on 12/30/2005, 2:46 PM

"practicing the Lotto."

Now THERE's a euphemism.

fldave wrote on 12/30/2005, 7:22 PM

Wow, Bob. Bad year. Sounds like a country and western song:) Seriously, after bad periods, and you come through ok, a lot of the little things don't bother you like they used to.

In 1997 my dog knocked me backwards and I hit my head on the tile floor. Three months later, I had a stroke at 39 years old, caused by my head injury. My vision, short term memory, and high-level reasoning were destroyed. Took the docs two years to agree that the head injury caused my problems, and that yes, indeed, it was probably a stroke. Another year of medicine, and no improvement, I spent my last dollars on a doc who put me through 5 months of vision rehabilitation. The seizures slowly disappeared, my memory improved, my vision returned to almost normal, and after three and a half years on disability, I went back to work.

I call my dog the "quarter million dollar dog", because that's the amount of lost income and expenses I had for those 3.5 years. Actually more than that, I stopped counting at that point.

So here's to hoping that you have a better 2006, and please don't sweat the small stuff. Like Vegas changing the length of a nested veg, or other such quirks.

Dave