" Maybe when BluRay hits HD-DVD will own the market."
I doubt that happens. Its possible but I just dont see it. Blu Ray has the advantage when it comes to storage and the more storage, the more studios can offer their customers in terms of quality and extras. Add to it, that thus far, H.264 AVC has kicked MS' butt in just about every quality test I have seen and with the new High Profile not far away, the distance between the two codecs will certainly become greater. WM9 was great for thelast two years but once H.264 AVC began its implementation, MS sat quietly and did NOTHING to improve its codec to remain competitve.
Either way, the consumers will seem to benefit in the end. Me, as long as my stuff plays on whatever I own, I could care less.
I thought the BETA-VHS war pretty well proved that consumers don't necessarily pick based on what you would normally think would be logical reasons. My bet is that most consumers are going to care less that Blu Ray has more storage - what it's going to come down to is cost. If the Blu Ray folks can sell disks & players at or near the same pricing as currently, then they may have a go - if they can't......
There's another side to this that hasn't been given anywhere enough attention, just how robust are these things. I haven't seen the physical specs on the HD DVD but I have for BluRay and it's pretty scary. I'm assuming the consummer vaersion is sans caddy in which case it's a disaster as the thing is about half the thickness of the existing DVD. Inagine what'll happen to them when little Johny gets a hold of them. There's enough problems with the existing DVD design.
Bob.