Both formats are viable, but both can't survive, IMO. Retailers and consumers won't stand for it.
===============
Maybe retailers won't. I don't think that I am an unusual consumer in believing that competition is ALWAYS good for the consumer. In fact I am convinced that monopolies are systematically destroying our nation.

John

The thing is that, unlike with video tapes, both formats can physically fit in the same machine. There is no reason aside from licensing issues why we should have players able to play both formats.

My hope is that HD DVD hangs on long enough for this to be the case. Again, my main reason for hoping this is because red laser HD DVDs are just such a great format for small time HD content producers such as many of us.

The reason I feel this way is obvious. The Bluray group doesn't seen to care much at all about those of us who want to burn our own discs. In fact if anything, they are intentionally throwing roadblocks in our path because they confuse they are confusing us with content pirates. I was strongly in the Bluray camp until I started trying to burn my own HD content discs.

"You claimed originally that BD changed their spec and we should all be outraged."
========================================

<double sigh>
No.
I claimed no such thing in any way shape or form. If you even read the headline to this thread a little more carefully "If this is true..... My opening post refers to someone else's statement saying that all older machines will be rendered obsolete.

And No, they haven't finalized it yet... that's still to come and upon reading the various posts on the issue, its' clear that NOBODY really k nows how the older machines will react.

NOW... you're claiming that there is nothing wrong with your A1... it's working fine and we must be reading something into it... here's a quote from one of your previous posts:

"As an owner of both an HD DVD player and a BD player, I'm more bothered that new HD DVDs absolutely won't play in my new-ish player,"

It was told that you need to update the firmware. If that doesn't solve the problem then you have a sick machine or a bad disk.... because mine works fine.

And No... I have no "anti Sony/BD agenda" what so ever. I want to burn REAL hi def disks. I don't care if they're BD's or HD DVD's... the format is irrelevant. What I have developed however is a pure frustration towards Sony/BD for teasing us for so long with Bd burners, disks and such... and STILL not being able to fully and easily author blu ray when it's completely possible to do so. Laurence's statement says it best:

"The Bluray group doesn't seen to care much at all about those of us who want to burn our own discs. In fact if anything, they are intentionally throwing roadblocks in our path because they confuse they are confusing us with content pirates. I was strongly in the Bluray camp until I started trying to burn my own HD content discs."

HD DVD on the other hand has gone the other way...., they have made it as easy as possible. What remains to be seen is whether or not Toshiba allows the same easygoing burning workflow when their real burners come out in the next month or so. Judging from what I have seen so far out of Toshiba... the answer is yes.

The FACT is no one knows how many disks WHO has sold. No one knows who is winning, and no one knows who is losing.

Not true. The figures I'm going by are the Nielsen VideoScan figures from the video trade magazine Home Media. The numbers come from the barcode scans during a sale to a customer-- they're NOT figures that come from Sony or Toshiba.

As an example, the numbers posted this past Sunday (the 29th of July) were 74% BluRay, and 26% HD-DVD. These are actual sales figures. However, that's the highest I've seen BluRay since I've been checking, which is for about two months now. Generally it's around 64 to 67% BluRay, which is still double what HD-DVD is selling. (Just to be clear, this is disc sales, not players.)

And like I said, those figures are despite the fact that HD-DVD players cost about half of what BluRay ones cost.

And it makes sense, because there are several studios who don't release on HD-DVD (Disney being the biggie) but only on BluRay, whereas there's only one (Universal) that doesn't release on BluRay. And there's rumbling going on about the possibility of Universal changing their mind and supporting both.

Me, I don't have either yet. I'd probably go with BluRay though because of the movies currently available there are several that are only available on BluRay, whereas there's only one that's only on HD-DVD. And even that one title is from Warner and has already been mentioned as being on its way for BluRay. (The reason it wasn't put out on BR along with the HD disc was that it was an early one, and at the time BR wasn't shipping yet.)

fwtep, I believe that the new HD-DVD sales include the new dual format disk, HD-DVD and DVD, which, if I understand correctly, is the prefer format for new releases by the HD-DVD studio crowd. I know a few individuals that buy the dual format for the SD as gifts - tho they do not like HD-DVD.

That's interesting, because then even with the dual format they're still getting trounced by BluRay.

"As an example, the numbers posted this past Sunday (the 29th of July) were 74% BluRay, and 26% HD-DVD. These are actual sales figures. However, that's the highest I've seen BluRay since I've been checking, which is for about two months now. Generally it's around 64 to 67% BluRay, which is still double what HD-DVD is selling. (Just to be clear, this is disc sales, not players.)"
===========================================

And if the analysts didn't expect and foresee these numbers to look like this shortly after the introduction of the PS3, I would have had some serious questions and some serious doubts towards them. I'm SURE Toshiba fully expected this too.... they would be pretty dumb if they didn't.

But in my crystal ball, I see these numbers eventually leveling off as more and more people get drawn into the HD world. They will level off because you will start running into more and more people who have little interest in placing a "game machine" in their living room. People want player not "game machines" I for example am an average parent who has done everything possible to see to it that the kids have their own game room so they don't track mud, bubble gum and the rest of it through the middle of my living room.

This whole thing works in kind of phases... first there were the really early adopters that will pay anything to become part of the technology. Then there were the heavy gamers who bought into the PS3/xbox360 for the wild 3D games and graphics... they buy into the blu ray/hd dvd end of it more out of curiosity..... so on and so on. The numbers merely reflect the phase and class of people that are catching on....and it WILL come in waves. The REAL test.... the one that will make the difference are the people that are presently quite happy with their DVD's and square picture tubes.

Maybe it'll go blu ray's way... maybe Toshiba's.... maybe neither, who knows, but at this stage of the game, IMO... playing with annalists numbers is a bit like asking someone to choose a number between 1 and 10,000.... and expecting him to get it right.

"And it makes sense, because there are several studios who don't release on HD-DVD (Disney being the biggie) but only on BluRay, whereas there's only one (Universal) that doesn't release on BluRay. And there's rumbling going on about the possibility of Universal changing their mind and supporting both."
========================================

And this here.... forget it.

I'm a parent of a wide age range of children. And I'm here to tell you first hand... don't count on Disney anytime soon! We are JUST starting to see those children's used VHS tapes show up in the various children's used toy stores. Can't find a dvd though, because they're snapped up the minute they get traded. Family's and Walt Disney on HD DVD/Blu ray are still a LOOOONG way away from being common place!

Blink, here's why I think BluRay titles are outselling HD-DVD. This is COMPLETELY guesswork but it's plausible and probably at least partially true:

Most people with BluRay are under 20 and have it because it's part of the PS3 (even that age is obviously a guess). These people probably don't have a huge DVD collection, and if they do, especially ones under 20, they're movies they liked when they were "kids" and their tastes have changed drastically. So for them, they don't have a collection to sit back and watch, they have to build a new one with "grown-up" movies. And they're buying them in BluRay since that's what they now have.

But with HD-DVD the majority of people who have players DON'T have them as part of a game system, so they're probably adults and are in no rush to re-purchase the movies they already have. They'll buy new releases in HD but except for a few favorites probably won't double-dip.

So you have a young crowd with plenty of disposable income and a desire for movies, and another crowd, and older one, with not as much disposable income and with less of a need or desire to buy.

Again, that's the just about the only reason I can think of for why HD-Players seem to be selling better than BluRay while the BluRay discs sell significantly better. I know that this theory fits ME at least-- I have a huge collection of discs and will only upgrade the favorites, whereas if I was younger I'd be building the collection for the first time and would be buying everything I liked.

@craftech
Maybe retailers won't. I don't think that I am an unusual consumer in believing that competition is ALWAYS good for the consumer. In fact I am convinced that monopolies are systematically destroying our nation.
===============================================
Talking about monopolies?

How about Microsoft and Toshiba on HD-DVD side? Is there any other CE company that makes HD-DVD player? Any other company that makes HDi programming or VC1 encoding?

On Blu-ray side we have players from:

Sony,
Panasonic
Pioneer
Samsung
LG
Denon
Chinese coming on board with cheap players.

There is competition within the BDA.

So, who is monopoly?

HD-DVD must die.

FWTEP:

First of all... it's almost ALL guess work... yours,mine, even the pros that are getting paid to guess. At any rate I pretty much completely agree with your analogy. I consider myself an average bob, and if it wasn't for the fact that that I do HD, I certainly would not be involving myself in BD/HD DVD. Store bought DVD's work just fine for my purposes. When the PS3 came out I wouldn't even give it the slightest of consideration because it's a "game machine"... (Of course I now know a bit more about it and after all dust settles after the standard change, I will have a more careful look at it)

The point is however.... there are millions of average Bob's out there just like me.... maybe we'll get around to updating our square picture tubes to hd tv when they die... IF... the price is right.

My theory differs when it comes to the power of persuasion. Movie Studio's and porn industries may have a certain power early in the game.... but it's the millions of average Bob's that have yet to even hear about BD/HD DVD, that will end up deciding this. Which ever format figures out how to appeal to THAT crowd in the biggest and the best fashion will walk away with the prize.... that is if some other technology doesn't wiggle it's way in before this crowd has been swayed.

As for who wins from my perspective... well... I want to burn disks, and I want to do it cheaply and efficiently. I started with HD DVD because of the cheap and effective methods of HD DVD, and if I have to change formats... then I got a fair few HD DVD's that will have to be converted over.... but that's life, and I'll deal with it so long as my bottom line is met.... cost effective hi def disks.

"Talking about monopolies? "
=======================================

Well... so far the Toshiba "Monopoly" has manged to undercut just about every BD price that has come out. I hardly see how that can be a bad thing???

Do you really think Sony/ Samsung ...etc is dropping prices out of the goodness of their heart!!?? You can thank Toshiba DIRECTLY for the cheaper BD machines.

fire sell---

@craftech
Maybe retailers won't. I don't think that I am an unusual consumer in believing that competition is ALWAYS good for the consumer. In fact I am convinced that monopolies are systematically destroying our nation.
==================
Talking about monopolies?

Is there any other CE company that makes HD-DVD player?


Chinese coming on board with cheap players.

HD-DVD must die
==============
Cheap HD DVD players not Blu-Ray players:

You have the story backwards.

You also didn't read my posts. You apparently are in favor of killing off HD DVD. It is clear from my posts (if you finish reading my rather short sentences) that I am in favor of BOTH formats not one over the other. I hear the Blue-Ray camp tooting their supposed superiority and bragging about burying the HD DVD format in a "Let's attack Iraq and steal their oil" fashion - not so from the HD DVD camp.

John

Let's try this one more time, slowly.
The *new* HD DVD's (coming later this year, as mentioned in at least two posts) will absolutely not play in my current player. Toshiba has made it patently clear that their new format (due out later this year) will absolutely not play in my existing player. There is no firmware, software, or lingerie wear upgrade to my A1 that will allow me to play the new format DVDs that are allegedly coming out later this year. :-)
On the other side of the picture...BD old and new, will play on my current player. Even the new DVDs with new content expected to ship during the 07 holiday season.
I think competition is a good thing, but since the two camps can't come together on licensing technology (specifically, HD DVD won't allow their technology to be on a BD-capable machine) then the consumer is faced with a choice.
I'm so reminded of my laser-disc player. :-/

I think competition is a good thing, but since the two camps can't come together on licensing technology (specifically, HD DVD won't allow their technology to be on a BD-capable machine)
==========
I still can't find this stuff you are saying when I search it. Is this something else you heard at CES?

Where did you read that Blu-Ray would allow their technology on an HD DVD capable player and HD DVD would NOT allow the reverse?


John

So Toshiba's the one not wanting to license dual format players? I thought it was Sony. In any case, Toshiba has the most to lose by not licensing dual format players. At this point, the only chance HD DVD really has is for both formats to coexist in dual format players. If there is to be just a single format, it will no doubt be Bluray. For Toshiba to not license dual format players is to really shoot itself in the foot.

For either camp to make non-early adopter compatible new formats is really dumb. As Spot says, it's one thing if a new disc is missing some special features in an older player. It's another thing entirely if it won't play the main movie.

Toshiba/Microsoft generated the injunction against LG and Samsung manufacturing combos in separate suits.

Triple layer/51GB random sampling:
http://www.engadget.com/2007/02/28/51gb-hd-dvd-disc-gets-official/

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2007/01/15/tosh_touts_51gb_hddvd/

http://www.physorg.com/news87584681.html

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/hd-dvd-turns-it-up-to-51gb-with-triple-layer-goodness-228801.php

Bottom line is, this is just another "sky is falling" from those that actually don't even own the gear they're crying around about.
I own both. I'm not crying about either. Just happy to be working with it in either/both formats. On a business note, I hope they both survive. On a personal note, I have a big issue with how Toshiba presented their product this year at CES, and how they enlisted a strong campaign of FUD, and at the end of the day, that may well be what will destroy them.

Both surviving is good for competition but it sucks for the consumer who has to own both to be able to enjoy their favorite movies. Thats almost aiken to studios producing movies that only play on Macs or PCs and consumers having to own both just to view the content.

I think we need a unified format with those with the investments in the technology getting an equal share instead of Sony and Toshiba taking the whole pie. That is why DVD worked so well. People didnt have to choose based on format, only on output quality.

I have a BD burner but I will not buy another one until they come down way in price ($100.) The format wars arent helping the consumer at all other than the two camps forcing each other's prices down.

Think DVD plus and minus R. At first it was a pain. but now most burners and readers can do either format.

Toshiba/Microsoft generated the injunction against LG and Samsung manufacturing combos in separate suits.
===========
None of those links refer to a lawsuit against LG and Samsung generated by Toshiba/Microsoft nor can I find any reference to such a suit doing a Google search.

And I still don't know where you read that Sony/ Blu-Ray would allow their technology on an HD DVD capable player and Toshiba would not. The LG and Samsung combination players are out are they not?

One of those articles you linked did confirm what you heard at CES in terms of first gen Toshiba players not playing triple layer titles IF they ever take off. Not sure if triple layer Blu-Ray titles would play on first gen Blu-Ray players either.

John

"Toshiba/Microsoft generated the injunction against LG and Samsung manufacturing combos in separate suits."
============================================================

The injunction that Tosh/M$ filed had nothing to do with it being a dual format player.

The integrated HD DVD player did not meet the proper specs of a HD DVD player so Tosh did not want the HD DVD logo on the machine. They were told to either make the machine FULLY compliant with the HD DVD standard, or take the logo off.

As far as FUD goes... they BOTH have distributed their fair share.