OT: BD players, DLs, and more

apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 2:07 AM

Well, In a NYTimes story

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A $299 Sony Blu-ray Player, but No Cheap Chinese Models

By Saul Hansell
Blu-ray

Stan Glascow, the president of Sony Electronics, held his semi-annual update today in New York, and there were a few new tidbits.

He was, predictably, bullish on the fate of the Blu-ray disc format, now that Sony’s technology has won against Toshiba’s HD-DVD. He acknowledged that the company now has to convince people they need to upgrade their DVD players .

He talked of a slow steady decline in the prices of Blu-ray players, which Sony now sells for $399 and up. He said that prices will fall to $299 for this Christmas and may be under $200 by the end of 2009. Sony isn’t the only one that makes Blu-ray players; Sharp, Samsung and other big electronics companies also compete with Sony.

Mr. Glasgow expressed hope that price levels wouldn’t collapse the way they did for DVD players. To protect against this, he said the Blu-ray Association, the group that controls the Blu-ray standard, has not licensed it to any manufacturers in China. (Cheap players from China were a large part of the collapse of the DVD player market.)

“Will there be Chinese players? Yes,” he said. “We don’t need to drive that and hand the technology over” any time soon, he said.

Mr. Glasgow also said that he didn’t see the market for Blu-ray undercut by movie downloads in the next few years. Given the speed of most home Internet connections in the United States, downloading a movie still takes hours, he said. Discs, moreover, are still popular because people can hold them and give them to others.

“People like owning packaged media,” he said. “Downloading will build over time, but it could take ten years for significant penetration.”

That said, Sony is working on a initiatives to enable customers to download video programs on to a variety of devices including PlayStation game consoles, some Bravia televisions, and the next generation of Blu-ray players that will include an Internet connection.

He confirmed reports that supply of L.C.D. panels for televisions will be in short supply this year, keeping prices firm. Sony, he said, has contracts in place to assure the supply it needs.

As for the dicey state of the economy, Mr. Glasgow expressed optimism, noting that Sony aims at higher price points favored by more affluent buyers. Nonetheless, the company is trying to reduce the amount of inventory it has in its supply chain so it can respond quicker to fluctuations in demand.

“We think the Sony brand holds up well during difficult economic times,” he said

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Basicly, since no Chinese manufacturer joined the BD group in the beginning, the group sees no immediate need to let them flood the market with cheap BD players since they put no investment in the developing the product line. Since the Chinese has been making noise of an alternate tech product, I think everyone is saying " Go head, proof it!" and the media partners have issues with the Chinese piracy. .

Plus, if everyone thinks back to when the Chinese flood the DVD market with cheap players, the failure rate of the players were extremely high in the beginning. Blue lasers are cheaper now, but still more limited than red, so a lot of marginal designs could hurt consumer market plus drive up supplies cost of the blue diode.

And with the world economics carving up manufacturing profits and energy supplies becoming more expense; more international companies are reviewing "risk" concerns about assets beginning nationalized in foreign countries.

Comments

Chienworks wrote on 3/6/2008, 3:49 AM
"Mr. Glasgow expressed hope that price levels wouldn’t collapse the way they did for DVD players."

Obviously a statement directed at stockholders, not consumers.

Hands up, everyone here who despises the fact that you can buy an amazingly useful and powerful DVD player for $24.97 ?

... listens to the gentle breeze whispering through the leaves and the crickets chirping ... not a hand in sight ...

Ah, just as i suspected.
apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 4:20 AM
"Hands up, everyone here who despises the fact that you can buy an amazingly useful and powerful DVD player for $24.97 ?" that is now, what was the price about just 3 or 4 years ago for players when the DVDs sales was starting to declining by noticeable marginals.
farss wrote on 3/6/2008, 4:38 AM
I haven't seen any dramatic drop in player prices over that time.
I have one $80 made in china cheapy and a $400 Sony bought more recently. Ths SOny is pretty good, plays SACD and every DivX disk we've tried. Main reason I bought the Sony was it was the only one I could get with SCART as we run RGB component into the TV.

What really does annoy me is when the laser finally dies it's impossible to repair the things, a $2 laser diode requires the whole unit becomes landfill. I'd even replace the whole optical drive to save the waste but even those are likely no longer available or if they are as expensive as the entire box to replace.

As for the download issue, by my calcs when I get my 24Mb/sec connection I can download 20 HD movies per week onto my server. Downloading movies will not be the problem, finding the time to watch them will be.

I also don't get the whole thing about the Chinese not building BD players. If they develop their own why would they want to build BD players. Demand is now so high in China for luxury goods they now have a two tier pricing structure, one price to build for the local market and one for the export market.

Bob.
apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 5:39 AM
"What really does annoy me is when the laser finally dies it's impossible to repair the things, a $2 laser diode requires the whole unit becomes landfill. I'd even replace the whole optical drive to save the waste but even those are likely no longer available or if they are as expensive as the entire box to replace." Yea, I find that annoying too. But on the repairs on cheap units, cost of shipping, labor, etc.... made it cheaper to send new unit for replacement.

"also don't get the whole thing about the Chinese not building BD players. If they develop their own why would they want to build BD players. Demand is now so high in China for luxury goods they now have a two tier pricing structure, one price to build for the local market and one for the export market." Well, this can be a complex conversation, so, I'll only going for the simple examples for time( I'll about the slowest typist in existence). One current example, is the current iPhone being made in China. It turns out that the same plant that produces the iPhone for Apple, is producing extra iPhones not ordered by Apple and selling them as "knock-offs" around $100 per phone, fully functional--------- and they claim to be making a profit( from someone else's expense). Apple seems to be unable to make China enforce its contracts. A lot of people view China as a new vast market, but don't want to be ripped off by un-enforceable contracts and trade agreements.

China's importing infrastructure is still very underdeveloped,( but it is rapidly improving), this affects volume of goods reaching customers. China's exporting infrastructure is vastly superior to its able to distribute customer goods and this is where China spends most of its resources maintaining the export infrastructure.
craftech wrote on 3/6/2008, 5:54 AM
Not a hand in sight is right. None of these underhanded tactics are going to work. They couldn't compete with Toshiba on their level (low price) so now they want to strangle the Chinese in a vain attempt to keep prices artificially high so that what? The consumer will spend more on one of these things? A joke.

Then there are those early adopters who bought the early models:


Unlike HD DVD, which mandated features such as local storage, a second video and audio decoder for picture-in-picture, and a network connection from the very beginning, the companies behind Blu-ray took a different approach. Initial hardware players lacked these capabilities in order to keep costs down.

NOW GET THIS PART OF THE ARTICLE

When BetaNews asked developers of BD Live whether they were concerned about a backlash from early adopters who supported the format from the beginning, we were told: "They knew what they were getting into."

NICE ATTITUDE AND IT GETS EVEN WORSE:

When BetaNews asked why these manufacturers rushed out players that were not fully capable and potentially buggy due to their BD-J implementation, the Blu-ray partner pointed blame across the room to HD DVD. "We should have waited another year to introduce Blu-ray to the public, but the format war changed the situation," he said. HD DVD was already coming and the BDA had no choice but to launch Blu-ray.

The [B]NERVE[/B] of another company especially in this day and age competing.

Oh gosh! I am going to rush out and spend $400 today on a new Blu-Ray player because I hate China.

Want to split the cost of one with me Kelly? How far away do you live?

John
Laurence wrote on 3/6/2008, 6:47 AM
You know what I really hate: the fact that my cheap Chinese DVD player plays back home-burned DVDs more reliably than the expensive brands because of better error correction. How dare they...

Honestly, it's good that Blu-ray won the format war, but sometimes I wish that HD DVD had hung on a little longer... just for the sake of us consumers!
fwtep wrote on 3/6/2008, 8:33 AM
I'm getting a little tired of the whining about the BD format updates leaving some players out in the cold. First of all, the movies themselves will still play fine, as will most of the extras. It's only some of the advanced extras that won't work (or might not work). And the public, by and large, doesn't care about that stuff. Studios put a ton of extras on discs more for marketing purposes than because the public wants them.

Second, my early DVD player didn't support newer features such as DTS or the ability to play burned discs. My early VHS player did not support Hi-Fi sound. My grandfather's record player did not support 33 1/3. Why do people act like changes in the format/features are something new? And let's not forget the 51gb HD-DVD disc that wouldn't have worked on existing HD players. To me, having a disc not work at all is worse than having the movie work but some silly online stuff not work.

Lastly, how about you learn the difference between "reason" and "blame." The comment from the Blu-Ray guy about "we should have waited but the format war changed the situation," was a *reason" for releasing BR early. I detected no anger, animosity or whining in that response.
TheHappyFriar wrote on 3/6/2008, 10:03 AM
DVD players also supported PCM output, which works on 100% of discs. VHS's w/o hi-fi sound just output the sound... in not hi-fi. The record play didn't support 33 1/3 because it didn't exist then & wasn't coming out the week after he bought it.

But they would all output anything NEWER just fine. I can plug "Hot Fuzz" in any DVD player ever & enoy all of it. I can put in my VHS (if I had it any more) in my 2004 VHS & get the same output on my grandma's 1993 VHS player.

I can buy a BD movie next year & there's no guarantee it will work in the player I (in theory) bought last year. Just because they say that the special feature are the only thing that uses the "new updates" doesn't mean that's true. Could very well be you'll be buying a new BD player every year just to watch new releases. That didn't happen with DVD or VHS: the basic format that ALL copies had to adhear to stayed the same.

But, on a similar note, the first DVD players didn't play all DVD's because of issues with the players themselves (couldn't handle such high bitrates, etc). Except for the Chinese ones. Those worked on everything that could be thrown at it (remember when Apex was one of the best?)
Terje wrote on 3/6/2008, 11:59 AM
I can buy a BD movie next year & there's no guarantee it will work in the player I (in theory) bought last year.

Unless there is something wrong with your BD player, it will work. There is nothing in the 2.0 standard that prevents you from playing the disk in a non-2.0 player. The constant moaning about this is absurd and not just a little paranoid.
apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 12:32 PM
"there's no guarantee it will work in the player I (in theory) bought last year." the sky is falling!!!!! What studio would produce a major movie that would not play the basic BD requirements and lose volume sales?
apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 12:43 PM
"They knew what they were getting into." this is the message for the HD DVD crowd. Should look swell on their Tombstone! ;-)

"They knew what they were getting into." response from Toshiba about the new 51G dish not being able to be read in the current HD DVD players. Which Toshiba has stop all plant conversions.

I have noticed that the HD DVD crowd are the ones still complaining about BD changes and claiming wild and out of sight "fees" for BD production. MS and HD DVD hacks can't believe that the world did not comply to their wishes.......... ;-)
Chienworks wrote on 3/6/2008, 1:03 PM
"Want to split the cost of one with me Kelly? How far away do you live?"

I'll chip in 25 cents, and then you can keep the whole thing for yourself. I wouldn't have any use for it anyway. I can't afford to buy any BD movies.
apit34356 wrote on 3/6/2008, 1:11 PM
"I wouldn't have any use for it anyway. I can't afford to buy any BD movies." Yea, that sums up the big problem in general. After spending for HD TV and HD players, the average family budget just doesn't have the extra for the high price media. IF fuel, housing, and general expenses were down then the market probably would support the 30-50 price, but not today. Studios need to work on a solution that includes the average family if they want volume--- in my opinion if there is a workable answer. ;-)
Terje wrote on 3/6/2008, 10:22 PM
the market probably would support the 30-50 price, but not today

$30 to $50? Where are you buying BD software? The upper end of a single movie disk is typically mid to upper 20's, most BD software today can be bought for about $15-$18. In other words, it is less expensive to buy Ratatouille on Blu than it is for two people to go see it in the theaters.

If you can shell out $300 for a player, $1200-$3000 for a decent HD TV (1080p, 42" or bigger) I can't see how 1.9 movie tickets is too high a price to own the movie in about the same quality (some times better) than what you get in the theater.

Studios need to work on a solution that includes the average family if they want volume

They really don't have to do that. Far from it. Not yet. The families that are currently struggling too hard to be able to afford two movie tickets have not invested in HD TVs and Blu-Ray players. Reducing the price of BD software to placate a group of consumers that can't possibly watch the movie would be absurd.
blink3times wrote on 3/7/2008, 4:51 AM
They really don't have to do that. Far from it. Not yet. The families that are currently struggling too hard to be able to afford two movie tickets have not invested in HD TVs and Blu-Ray players.

But you're comparing Apples to oranges.... or rather Movie theater tickets to disk media.... 2 different things. You need to compare Bd to dvd.... and for about $60, I can buy a new release dvd movie AND a dvd player.... and it'll work on any tv in the house.

And BTW... in Canada the average price for a bd movie is around $30... even with our dollar being higher than the USA dollar.
Laurence wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:00 AM
I'm always amazed that people in this forum are still comparing DVDs to Bluray discs and deciding in favor of SD DVDs. We are a video forum after all and supposedly care about the quality of our final product. Bluray has about six times the resolution of SD DVD! It would be like guys on an audio forum saying they are still going to buy cassettes because they're cheaper! It is like guys on a chef's forum saying they still eat at McDonalds to save money! There is simply a HUGE quality difference! If anyone should be aware of the extent of this difference, it is us!
apit34356 wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:24 AM
Terje, in the midwest, the BD prices on new releases are still high. I think most studios don't mind if BD prices help keep up DVDs prices for another year while waiting for HD TV sales to grow. Of course, cheaper BD content doesn't hurt but everyone is wanting a premium so if its not volume.............

blink3times wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:27 AM
I'm always amazed that people in this forum are still comparing DVDs to Bluray discs and deciding in favor of SD DVDs.

Nobody debates the quality.... it's the price. I for one will pay a good buck for quality, but the question is.... will the average struggling family.

And BTW... my wife still uses cassettes. That's the difference between an "audiophile" (as you describe) and an average Joe (or Joe-ette as the case may be)

You have to think outside the box on this Laurence. The people on this board appreciate video and quality... etc. My brother... an average family guy can't for the life of him understand why I spent boatloads of money on a flat panel tv. According to him his 32 inch CRT works just fine.
craftech wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:36 AM
I'm always amazed that people in this forum are still comparing DVDs to Bluray discs and deciding in favor of SD DVDs. We are a video forum after all and supposedly care about the quality of our final product. Bluray has about six times the resolution of SD DVD!
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Laurence,
I think what you are getting confused about is that some of the comments refer to movie releases and their variable quality and some of the comments deal with what we as videographers are trying to produce. It's not the same.

John
farss wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:39 AM
I care about the very things that you're talking about and having seen real 4K, BD's 1920x1080 is pathetic, sub standard consummer rubbish.

However despite my obsession with resolution and high frame rates most of us come crashing back down to ground when we're hit with that missile called commercial reality. Unlike the Jim Jannards of this world most of us have to pay for our hobbies and so far the market for HD content is zip. I'm still being offered paying jobs to swing a VHS camera, what should I do, stand on my principles and let some other smuck make the buck or be grateful for the money. Oh wait, I could shoot it on my EX1 and take the time to downconvert it to SD so it can be watched on some 14" TV.

Even for cinema release precious few cinemas have even 2K projection. Down here the number is in single digits, there's 100s with 720p projection that can show any indie movie that you can encode out of Vegas. Why sweat the pixel count just to feel superior. I can bore anyone to death over image quality and that's the problem, it just bores 99.5% of the population. As for expecting them to pay for it, good grief no.

As for audio, well I don't see anyone here talking about DSD and SACD. The market for SACD is minute. The market for mp3 crud is HUGE.

Bob.
blink3times wrote on 3/7/2008, 5:45 AM
And MP3 is proof that people don't really hold quality at a high priority the way an audiophile would
craftech wrote on 3/7/2008, 6:01 AM
And MP3 is proof that people don't really hold quality at a high priority the way an audiophile would
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Blink,
You have a core group of about 4-5 people on this forum that insist they understand business yet can't accept what the public wants. It's mind boggling and doesn't take a degree in business administration to figure out. They quote stuff without sources and make half of it up as they go along. They cite technical specs that the consumer doesn't give a rat's *** about. And worse, when I asked a question about how many Blu-Ray movies they own a few weeks ago, most of them didn't respond. Two did. One supports that format by buying Blu-Ray titles (to his credit) and the other got insulted by the question. The rest didn't respond at all.
All mouth, but they don't dig into their wallet to support the format they shoot their mouths off over. Then they either bad mouth the public or dismiss the public's relative disinterest by claiming variable nonsense such as "format confusion" accounting for bad sales of HD discs instead of little return for high cost. Truly amazing. Now to prove their short attention span they will probably falsely claim that I am an HD DVD fanboy despite all my posts.

John
Jeff9329 wrote on 3/7/2008, 7:48 AM
Although Sony dosen't want any cheap Chinese branded players knocking down their margins, they don't mind having their players manufactured in China by child labor to be sold in the USA.

Buying a BD player is like stabbing a Chinese child in the back.
fwtep wrote on 3/7/2008, 8:23 AM
Buying a BD player is like stabbing a Chinese child in the back.

Unlike the computer you typed that on...