OT: NAB 2007 Rumors

p@mast3rs wrote on 2/24/2007, 9:38 AM
Well, its that time of year again. Word on the street that all of the major players in the NLE market will be debuting their next line of NLEs complete with next gen HD support. Apple will roll out Final Cut Studio 6 and will support both HD DVD and BD. Same goes for Adobe and Avid.

What I find rather odd if my sources are true is that Sony is already releasing V8+DVDA5 with BD support. First that another version is out so quickly after V7 (September) and second, expectedly no HD DVD support. I can understand the push for BD but Sonic Foundry was always based on giving its users a choice. I have been unable to find out whether Sony will allow V8+DVDA5 to use AVC and VC1 for encoding to BD but for the love of god, if we are stuck with Mepg-2 for HD, then others will have to swtich or wait for the future and include no extras.

Adobe is also rumored to integrate DVRack and Ultra2 into its Production Studio. Definitely a smart move on Adobe's part.

Again, this is based on my sources which can be wrong and have been wrong in the past but this year seems to be spot on in their assessment.

Comments

Grazie wrote on 2/24/2007, 9:58 AM
"Again, this is based on my sources which can be wrong and have been wrong in the past but this year seems to be spot on in their assessment.

Is that a "Rumsie"? - "We may not know, but we KNOW what we don't know . . " etc etc . . .

In any event, Patrick, you have me all a-quiver!!! OOo you minx!


Spot|DSE wrote on 2/24/2007, 10:46 AM
Adobe already soft announced that what was formerly Serious Magic DV Rack would be a part of their "ongoing bundle strategy" so there is nothing "new" or secretive about it. It does have a new name, but that's for Adobe to announce.

Bear in mind that the rumors of years past have held to be about 50% accurate, which makes them mostly a guess, not a rumor. My guess is that Apple will buy Adobe, Avid will quit developing professional applications and become the new Ulead, Sony will release a new software based camcorder that utilizes any webcam as the front end for recording 4:2:2 uncompressed on a RAID, Flash will be replaced by an unnannounced format of choice for YouTube, HD displays will be replaced by UXHD displays and consumers will be urged to skip the HD step.
On the rest of the broadcast side, Grass Valley will announce they've quit smoking it, Ikegami will no longer tolerate the nickname of "Ickey," SDI will give way to UHDMI (UberHighDefinitionMultiMediaIntervace) CineForm will announce that they've purchased the codec division at Microsoft and now own all the codec juju the world has to offer. Intervideo will announce that they're releasing Ulead Media Studio Pro 9, even though they never quite finished the development of 8, and Blu-ray and HD DVD will put aside their differences and cross license manufacturing technologies, paving the way to play any kind of media anywhere, without any form of DRM.
The film studios will file suit an hour later.
Almost forgot...
Cameras:
Cameras are no longer needed, just glass. Thanks to a new interface, the new glass fits to the face of the camera op, who records the images into his brain, resolving at approx 10K. A data dump then takes place via cyberscan, and the 10k, 10bit, uncompressed stream will be captured to CipricoMonsterVault devices consisting of 5TB modules. During Beta testing, the only problem with the system is that on occasion, bad memories or thoughts of a former spouse would corrupt the otherwise pristine 10k data stream.
Switchers? Who needs em? In today's ADD world, viewers WANT jumpcuts, plain overlays, segmented presentations. In fact, Samsung is expected to announce a new display that changes channels ALL BY ITSELF without the male owner needing to constantly fondle the remote control. Higher end models will have a Bore Sensor that senses a shift in neural activity, signalling boredom, and changes the channel before the remote can be activated, thus relieving any viewer of physical activity of any kind.
Nabisco is said to be entering the broadcast space with their new Couch Cooler that holds stackable chips, a beer spigot, and straws for the kiddies.

It's a good year to be in the media biz!

[edited to add] What is not rumored, are the changes in the what was formerly known as the Vegas Users Event/party.
This year, it's significantly different, substantially larger, with some really exciting guest speakers, presentations, etc.
If you have a film that has been finished in Vegas and you'd like a bit of it shown at the party, PM me. We nearly have enough entries now, but have room for one or two others.
je@on wrote on 2/24/2007, 10:57 AM
Well, all obfuscation and cracking wise aside, it does appear that Sony is allowing itself to fall behind other professional apps/suites. A marketing decision from above, no doubt. And ain't it a shame?!
rmack350 wrote on 2/24/2007, 10:58 AM
Ooooh! a new ADDTV standard! I can't wait! Really, I can't.

Rob Mack
rstein wrote on 2/24/2007, 10:59 AM
You forgot something Spot...
Amgen will announce a new implantable neurowafer that allows OTA reception of SD and HD signals, and with a small 802.11z adaptor in proximity, cable and satellite signals, too. That may interface with the CipircoMonsterVault device, if the aeroneurocompression patent from Alcatel and Lucent can be gotten around.

And most important... all the major studios will announce that future DVD, HD-DVD, and BD movie releases will be unencrypted and freely archivable, because they've realized that they're good enough, smart enough, and gosh darn it, people like them [better if they wouldn't prospectively treat the viewers as thieves].

Bob.
Wolfgang S. wrote on 2/24/2007, 11:17 AM
Douglas, I like your guess...
:)

My guess is that Vegas8 will come out - and deliver an all-inclusive cutter - allowing me to focus me on money making, while he generates my videos automatically.

Desktop: PC AMD 3960X, 24x3,8 Mhz * GTX 3080 Ti * Blackmagic Extreme 4K 12G * Atomos Sumo * QNAP Max8 10 Gb Lan * Blackmagic Pocket 6K Pro, EVA1, FS7

Laptop: ProArt Studiobook 16 OLED (H7600, 12th Gen Intel) with internal HDR preview on the laptop monitor

GlennChan wrote on 2/24/2007, 11:33 AM
What is not rumored, are the changes in the what was formerly known as the Vegas Users Event/party.

Last year's Vegas party was really good. Can't wait...
Spot|DSE wrote on 2/24/2007, 12:13 PM
Well, all obfuscation and cracking wise aside, it does appear that Sony is allowing itself to fall behind other professional apps/suites. A marketing decision from above, no doubt. And ain't it a shame?!

What makes you say that? Either Patrick's source is right, or Patrick's source is not right. No one that knows the correct answer for certain is going to say anything.
Vegas has typically been either slightly ahead of, or slightly behind the curve of what the "other" manufacturers release, but the question really is, if Vegas is your tool of choice in times when they've been ahead of...is it no longer be your tool of choice when it's behind? I can say without worry of violating any NDA that much of the hoopla you'll hear at NAB will be "We now support 24p GOP!"
Vegas already does, and has for a couple of months now.
The other side of it is...Avid, Apple, and Adobe are famous for announcing new products at NAB but not shipping them for several months. Sony Media Software has not done this. Either it ships at announcement or within a few days of announcement, or it doesn't get announced.

NAB is no longer the launching pad for product that it once was, FWIW. These days, manufacturers announce and release whenever it suits their whim, as this helps their product not get lost in the mayhem that surrounds NAB. NAB is mostly a press release fest.
farss wrote on 2/24/2007, 12:22 PM
Good point, after all Vegas has already got a circus act at Circus Circus, it doesn't need another one at the Convention Centre.

All that aside though no one has mentioned something that's NOT a rumour. Jim Jannard will be there with his buzz saw.
winrockpost wrote on 2/24/2007, 12:39 PM
my sources say stay on 14, no hit on 14, no stay
pick up your full color laminated vinyl red one stickers in sizes from 3" to 20" inches, catch a show, and attent the Vegas party.
JeffreyPFisher wrote on 2/24/2007, 1:09 PM
See you all at the party.

(Mebbe Spot will do five minutes of stand-up as that was one very funny post ... lol )

JPF
je@on wrote on 2/24/2007, 1:12 PM
"...Avid, Apple, and Adobe are famous for announcing new products at NAB but not shipping them for several months..."

True enough but it does allow the user base to plan for the future. Vegas users (and, make no mistake, I love my Vegas) have to keep their fingers crossed. I like the idea of knowing where my platform of choice is headed. It is, after all, a big part of how I make a living.

(With all due respect to DSE.)
rmack350 wrote on 2/24/2007, 4:52 PM
I certainly have no inside info but I can make some basic guesses:

--support for BD and HD-DVD authoring
--Whatever Vista changes might have been in the works

I'm going to assume that some of the software development for Madison over the last year and a half was contingent on Vista, in that it would make sense to offer a new release after Vista launched, regardles of whether it really affected the product line.

At this point the HD authoring and a new Media Manager are the only two things that really *need* to be offered as soon as possible. The HD authoring is a big enough feature to warrant a new version of DVDa, but since it's tied to Vegas you have to wonder how they'd release it. Make DVDa a standalone product? Or maybe there were enough leftover projects after Vegas 7 to warrant a Vegas 8? I kind of doubt that, and if they offered a V8 I'd really expect people to skip it or squawk unless the upgrade were cheap (some would say the upgrades are always cheap anyway).

What else would be worth a new rev of Vegas? Adding lots of the more obvious interface enhancements (lockable tracks), support for Red One (Vegas doesn't go up to 4k and color is still 8-bit ), a more serviceable titler (the most kvetching I've ever heard was after V7, I doub't there's been enough time since then).

I don't know, I'm finding it hard to imagine a Vegas 8 by NAB. Maybe a Vegas 7.5.

Rob Mack
Serena wrote on 2/24/2007, 5:11 PM
>>>color is still 8-bit <<<

I know what you mean, but just to say it: colour is 24 bit while luminence is only 8 bit. Or you could say 8bpc. It would be good to get 10 bit, even when output as 8.
TeetimeNC wrote on 2/24/2007, 8:52 PM
Rob, I what you say about Vista makes sense. Perhaps another similar enhancement would be better multi-core processor utilization.

Jerry
busterkeaton wrote on 2/24/2007, 9:27 PM
I don't think I'll make the party this year, but for y'all who do you have to make Glenn Chann breakdance again.
Jim H wrote on 2/24/2007, 9:34 PM
My sources say NewTek will announce they bought the rights to Amiga and their release of a new Amiga platform with integrated Toaster and super HAM video.
Spot|DSE wrote on 2/24/2007, 10:03 PM
Exotic chocolate and Beer. You bring the chocolate, I'll provide the beer.
Grazie wrote on 2/25/2007, 12:14 AM
I'll provide the beer

Ooooo now that IS tempting!!
farss wrote on 2/25/2007, 2:41 AM
Ok,
so more Snickers, right?

Not exactly exotic, or maybe they are in the USA.

Bob.
rmack350 wrote on 2/25/2007, 3:10 AM
I don't really know what color depth Red One is supposed to run at but probably 10 bit so if that becomes more than vaporware (and my boss has a deposit down) then vegas would probably needto be 10-bit and 4k rather than 8-bit and 2k. (oh, and since vegas uses rgb color isn't it more appropriate to say 8-bit? or if you like, since it can handle alpha, you could call it 32bit)

Anyway, I'm just making unsupported guesses. I think that the most likely thing to come along from Madison is support for HD authoring in DVDa. I don't see how they could let that go.
rmack350 wrote on 2/25/2007, 3:13 AM
Multicore also depends on the codecs, and most of them aren't Sony's.

A good thing to work on, and they seem to always be addressing multicore, but I don't see any compelling reason why something special would be done by NAB. But who know?

Rob
rmack350 wrote on 2/25/2007, 3:16 AM
That's cruel. But yeah, most of us think the most commonplace chocolates are exotic. And there's nothing more commonplace than Snickers.

Rob
blink3times wrote on 2/25/2007, 5:55 AM
"I certainly have no inside info but I can make some basic guesses:
--support for BD and HD-DVD authoring
--Whatever Vista changes might have been in the works"

Maybe we'll get smartrender too!!?? Coming from Liquid, I sure do miss this something awful!