OT: NPD numbers not so accurate

blink3times wrote on 1/24/2008, 6:42 PM


" It receives its data from point-of-sale systems from a number of retail outlets across the United States. He would not say how many retailers send data to NPD, but said it was "double digits."

Sooooo... "double digits" would indicate somewhere between 10 and 99 stores!!!??? The entire war is being judged on a maximum of 99 stores in the entire USA???!!!


http://www.betanews.com/article/print/NPD_Free_Bluray_player_deals_led_to_boosted_sales_this_month/1201203983

================================================================

NPD: Sky Isn't Falling for HD-DVD, Blu-ray Isn't Champ Yet

http://www.dailygame.net/news/archives/007137.php

Comments

farss wrote on 1/24/2008, 7:00 PM
Give it up man, they're both toast. China isn't having anything to do with either of them:
http://stor-age.zdnet.com.cn/stor-age/2007/0907/495410.shtml

or if you want to read about it in English:
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070906006388&newsLang=en

Note that China isn't being dumb. The CH DVD players will play HD DVD as well as their own CH DVD format but avoids paying any royalties on their own format.

Bob.
apit34356 wrote on 1/24/2008, 7:09 PM
"The entire war is being judged on a maximum of 99 stores in the entire USA???!!!" Blink, take your medication and sit in the nice corner--- ;-) researchers are working around the clock for a cure for the deadly brain eating Toshiba/MS virus................. ;-) don't worry, MS product managers are on the case, quoted saying " at least, this bio-virus doesn't travel by e-mail but just by human contact with a Toshiba/MS product, like how many people would that be?" Keep the faith-------- ;-)
blink3times wrote on 1/24/2008, 7:26 PM
"MS product managers are on the case,"
===========================================
Well I certainly have no doubt of this... I'm pretty sure we will see some more Toshiba/Microsoft magic in the next month or so.... but 99 store?? Geeez..... no wonder they got it wrong with the beta/vhs thing!
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/24/2008, 8:05 PM
It's the same BS story that was once attributed to how Soundscan worked as well. Turned out that even though Soundscan wasn't tracking *every* store in the USA, they were incredibly accurate.
Maybe it smarts a bit to have been such a staunch defender of HD DVD, but it's effectively over.
Remember around Txgiving Blink, when you were predicting the near-death of BD by Xmas?
Quite the opposite has occurred, regardless of whether it's 99 stores, 999, or 99,999.

At the Sundance Film festival, all anyone is talking about is RED, XDCAM EX, and BD. From the bottom to the top. One filmmaker here is raving about his next MOW being shot on XDCAM EX and delivering those streams on BD at the same time as it goes to broadcast without all the costly post-conversion.
Other than the very empty HD DVD kiosk, no one seems to be mentioning HD DVD.
blink3times wrote on 1/24/2008, 8:17 PM
"Remember around Txgiving Blink, when you were predicting the near-death of BD by Xmas?"
=================================================
Ummm... I think you got that a bit wrong.

It was FWTEP that predicted the death of HD DVD by Xmas. I never said anything about the death of BD by Xmas.

I should point out that you are also contradicting yourself... On the one hand you're saying that the NPD numbers are accurate and it is effectively over... but then the NPD is saying that it is NOT over.... Sooooo what are you saying... is NPD right or wrong???

Of course now FW is saying "after the Holidays" :)
Which Holidays BTW???
DGates wrote on 1/24/2008, 11:00 PM
blink3x's, you're an idiot.

Guess what, they don't track television ratings by monitoring every single home in the U.S. either. Pretty shocking huh?
ushere wrote on 1/25/2008, 12:30 AM
i'm still waiting for laser disk players to hit the shelves at >$200, then i'll really be in business...

leslie
apit34356 wrote on 1/25/2008, 1:06 AM
"blink3x's, you're an idiot." well, I think he's a Canadian in love, in love with MS/Toshiba products. He has just recently received the famous "Dear John's letter" by the national media. All the false hopes, just to realized "she" only wanted the money and had no real long terms plans except for those life insurance policies Blink signed over. A deal with devil would have been cheaper, CH DVD instead of HD DVD. What was that famous saying about the weak and injured-------- oh, ya, from the MS handbook, don't kick them when their down, stick it to them royalty then put them down permanently.
blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 2:50 AM
So many cocky people.... I'm amazed nobody has learned anything from the last "HD DVD is dead" episode. One minute HD DVD is dead and the next.... well... even Spot was saying hd dvd may win this.


"blink3x's, you're an idiot.'

Well thanks DGates... of course your opinion means so very much to me and I hold it with the utmost of regard. Anything you say I just take soooo seriously.
No they don't track TV from EVERY home, but you can be bloody sure they track more than 99 homes, streets, or blocks. In fact if I am not mistaken they have gotten pretty scientific in that area and use signal strength in part of the equation... ahhh... but then I'm an idiot.... what do I know.
blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 4:10 AM
"I think he's a Canadian in love, in love with MS/Toshiba products. "

I neither love M$/Tosh, nor hate Sony. Company names don't play a role with me and never have. (For the record, I own Sony Cameras as well as a boatload of other Sony products, along with as many third party software programs as I can get in order to check BEHIND windows/Vista to see what dastardly deeds it has preformed on my machine without my knowledge)

HD DVD (from my perspective anyway), just simply makes more sense. It's cheap, effective, more consumer friendly, and market ready. I leave the name-playing game to others on this site that seem to feel it important. In fact, I was all set to jump in, get ripped off with the "stick-it-to-the-early-adopter price tags", and go blu. But then I had a look at the disastrous shape their players are in. I can now do nothing but shake my head. For me to buy into Blu ray now would be very much like owning a motorized vehicle and having to trade it in for a Flinstones peddle car.

But I know.... maybe if we give Blu Ray another 2 years... on top of the 2 years it's already had on the market..............
apit34356 wrote on 1/25/2008, 4:42 AM
"I think he's a Canadian in love, in love with MS/Toshiba products. " Blink, just trying to lighten up the "love"!! ;-) Go BluRay!! ;-)



"Flinstones peddle car." You have the new 2008 Flinstones peddle car up there? I though you go the 2008 Toshiba boat anchor livingroom player version. ;-)

Also there's a new ideal called fire, check it out! ;-)


blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:26 AM
"Also there's a new ideal called fire, check it out! ;-)"

Ahh yes... that's pretty funny, but how we forget so easily.... it was us that had to show the USA how to build a fighter plane.

It was also Minnesota that came up here to Canada after the flood of '97 because they wanted to see our floodway system that kept us dry while they went underwater.
winrockpost wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:51 AM


imo ,,,the deciding difference is bluray has a very cool name , very important for us uneducated consumers.
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/25/2008, 8:33 AM
even Spot was saying hd dvd may win this.

Never once, did I say HD DVD may win this. VASST and myself invested heavily in BD quite a while ago, we've always believed in the triumph of BD.
Yes, I have said that "no one knows how it's going to come out" but I've never, ever believed at any point that HD DVD would prevail.

HD DVD died twice. Had Bill Gates not had a pissy fit at Howard Stringer, HD DVD would have stayed dead. It was a product reborne out of anger, ill thought, ill managed, and not enough forward-looking. I believed that last year at CES, I was completely confirmed in that belief at CES this year.
You aren't an idiot in my book, but you certainly are a misguided zealot. Over 1000 post on how great HD DVD is and how BD will lose, and you still keep beating that dead horse. Define "dead", and maybe we can all have a discussion.
HD DVD sales are miniscule compared to BD.
HD DVD content is miniscule compared to BD.
HD DVD size is miniscule compared to BD.
HD DVD manufacturer support is miniscule compared to BD.
HD DVD awareness is quite small among consumers
HD DVD LOST SERIOUS MONEY (some pundits are saying they lost half a billion $$ when it's all said/done) trying to buy the market via loss leaders and subsidized contracts. I'm personally familiar with Michael Bay's subsidies on "Transformers."
HD DVD may still be on the shelves, just like LD was for a couple years. Laser wasn't really dead for a long time either. Same with UMD. They just quietly slipped away and no one missed them one bit.
apit34356 wrote on 1/25/2008, 10:58 AM
"it was us that had to show the USA how to build a fighter plane." and not manufacture it because Jimmie Carter and staff said there was no future in manned aircraft--period -- I was amazed that anyone listened to him outside his own party---- his staff was just nuts, IRAN, B-1, ......... brother's loans from Libra....... of course, we did get Billy's Beer..... and you got a fathom airplane story for a movie; could have, should have, but didn't,------- sounds like HD DVD ---- sorry about ;-)


"It was also Minnesota that came up here to Canada after the flood of '97 because they wanted to see our floodway system that kept us dry"----ahhhh---- the beer fest rumor----- the flooding of Minnesota and Mississippi river was rumored to have been caused by a major Canadian holiday Beer fest, where Canadians sought "relief" behind the tents, I heard soil erosion patterns( and intoxicated marine life) were traced backed to the Festival. Who knew----- Canadians had Holidays because I heard they partied 24/7/365---- saving that one leap year day to cleanup the cans. ;-)
baysidebas wrote on 1/25/2008, 1:26 PM
Where are you mr. coonass, when we need you to bring a little reasoned input into a momentous discussion?
apit34356 wrote on 1/25/2008, 3:04 PM
"Where are you mr. coonass" I think you have chant his name 3 times and toss an empty 6-pack over your shoulder. ahhhhh 3x...... maybe its a clue.............DVD3X,......
blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 3:20 PM
Spot says:
'Never once, did I say HD DVD may win this. VASST and myself invested heavily in BD quite a while ago, we've always believed in the triumph of BD.
===========================

Well.. you never actually said Toshiba may WIN..... but you did say BD may lose. Here's your exact post:

"....... Amen. BD could potentially lose this game. it might lose because the BD consortium (that the HD DVD fanboys keep referring to as Sony) didn't make the right moves or more likely it's because Toshiba and MS have a great marketing ploy, and serious control over the computer side of the industry.

You can find it about 15 or so posts down in this thread:
http://www.sonycreativesoftware.com/forums/ShowMessage.asp?ForumID=4&MessageID=545013
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/25/2008, 4:33 PM
Well.. you never actually said Toshiba may WIN..... but you did say BD may lose.

Exactly. And saying BD *may* lose doesn't mean I think Toshiba might win. Not even close. But given a fanboy status of seeing BD as the hammer, Toshiba looks like the nail.
BD may still lose. HVD isn't a runner, but it's another alternative. 1/3 of the world won't be using BD, just as DVD isn't popular/the biggest seller, either. Spend a little time in Asia, you'll get a better idea of what I mean.
However, my position is, and always has been, that BD is the superior format, the consumer-preferred format, and what will be the predominant format in the high definition content delivery medium. And so far, I'm right. It's what we advised and counseled our clients to move with, it's what we've invested with, and it's what is prevailing.
and you know what? Tomorrow that could change. But it's unlikely.
apit34356 wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:04 PM
Spot, the fact you bought up Asia is interesting. A few people I know are working hard to model the Asia consumer market and energy market. I think everyone has learned that China has been a major buyer of oil and oil futures -- driving prices way up, but its still very much a coal based powered energy system----- that is under sizable stress from energy demands from Industrial and now-- its citizens. This is a long and boring topic so I will jump to the interesting parts---- will consumers electronics have enough power available for the high-end HD products vs. heating homes(china is experiencing very cold weather) vs cooking apps for the home for the masses. Because if only the well-off citizen can effort the cost of power, then the Asian market will not be of value High-end products for many more years. Meaning any new tech from China for its citizens will not be massed produced and will not be a global product for many more years nor any foreign product hoping China market will support it by volume in a global market battle.
blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:06 PM
"Exactly. And saying BD *may* lose doesn't mean I think Toshiba might win. Not even close. "
=========================================================
Oh give me a break will ya spot.

I remember that conversation and that thread... it had NOTHING to do with dvd. It had to do with HD DVD and BD, and it was shortly after Paramount crossed the floor giving hd dvd a shot in the arm.

I don't doubt your conviction to BD.... never have... but then that's not what's being discussed here. When Paramount crossed the floor, all you BD people went "oh sh*t!"

And guess what.... there is nothing to prevent the floor crossing to occur again.... and again.... and again....

It's pretty clear by now that anyone of these studios will role over and play dead for ya, or even do handstands at your command.... all you need to do is throw enough money at them. They have no loyalty but to themselves.
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:14 PM
They have no loyalty but to themselves.
To thine ownself be true.

That said, as you're convinced that you know what I was thinking at the time (especially after me re-reading the entire thread), perhaps you could help me make up my mind for dinner?
blink3times wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:44 PM
No problem!

Filet Mignon - medium rare
Roasted Potato in skin over a gentle open fire with a touch of sour cream and bacon bits
Artichoke with melted butter
A nice dark Ale
And for desert I'll give you a choice; New York cheese cake with strawberries or Baked Alaska.
fwtep wrote on 1/25/2008, 5:53 PM
Blinks said: It was FWTEP that predicted the death of HD DVD by Xmas. I never said anything about the death of BD by Xmas.

and: Of course now FW is saying "after the Holidays" :)

Um, no, I very clearly, and very often, said that the war would be decided shortly after the holidays. And if you know of another time of the year other than December that's referred to as "the holidays," please let me know. YOU said that the war hadn't even started yet. I was right, you were wrong. Period.

The ware is OVER, and I hope you'll soon give up posting every stupid little "tis but a flesh wound" article you can find. I was right, you were wrong. Blu-Ray won. End of story. And it was based, just like I said all along, on disc sales. And just like I also said all along, contrary to what one would expect, price wasn't a factor, because the more expensive option won. And like I also said all along, the PS3 was a big factor, and that PS3 owners were buying a lot of movies. You, on the other hand, were wrong about everything, as were the authors of the articles you linked to back then.

HD-DVD: 2007-2008 RIP