Well... Like I said... I'm so amazed that none of you learned anything from the paramount move OR the Warner move.

All it takes is a simple studio move to upset the whole track race (at this EARLY stage anyway)... and it's been upset twice now. If you think there won't be a third... forth... etc, then you are sadly mistaken.

Fred... come now. BD hasn't won anything yet. A studio crossed the floor... nothing more. It could have happened now as easily as 6 months from now (and it'll happen again too... which way and who is anybody's guess). And it could have as easily been to the HD DVD side instead of the BD side.

Spot: So are you saying that NPD is WRONG and in fact the war is over... BD has won???

Oh and BTW... Just came back from Best buy... bought The Borne Ultimatum on...... yes, you guessed it... HD DVD Gonna go watch it now! ;)

Let's not forget the history of this entire home entertainment thing.

We used to rent movies.

Then we started buying them.

And the movie rental places started to dry up and go out of business.

Why did we start buying instead of renting?

Was it because we suddenly found we needed to own movies like "Kill Bill" because we watch them ten times a year?

Or was it because the collection would be worth something someday exceeded only in value by a Ming vase?

Or maybe it was because the movies became so cheap it didn't pay to rent them any more.

Unless BD competes with SD instead of HD DVD it won't survive either. The consumer knows what they want.

John

I'm saying that the "war" is practically over. However, Bill Gates may try to pull another miracle out of his a...er, I mean, HAT and find a way to save HD DVD once more. It's in his best interest that the battle rage on. At the moment, the battlefield is quiet. Am I stupid enough to say it's absolutely over? Nope. Am I smart enough to re-invest what we've earned from investing in BD back into BD? You betcha. Already done.

But hey! You bought Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD. Between you purchase and my purchase of the same movie, we've probably saved the entire format!

'Zactly right John. No way am i gonna pay $30+ for an HD copy of a movie when the SD copy is in the $7 bin. I might be tempted to pay $10, maybe even $15 for something i really wanna see, but only if i don't already have it on SD.

"'Zactly right John. No way am i gonna pay $30+ for an HD copy of a movie when the SD copy is in the $7 bin. "
=================================================
Actually... with HD DVD you pay $30 for BOTH the dvd and HD DVD. Many of them are now coming in the combo form (dvd on one side and HD DVD on the other). It's kind of nice this way... I can watch it as HD at home and take it to the cottage and watch it on dvd (we don't have hi def at the lake)

It's BD that has a little trouble with that end of the technology ;)

Blink, it's amazing how resistant you are to reading what other people are actually saying. I wouldn't pay $30 for both HD and SD copies either when i can get just the SD copy for $7. That's paying $23 for the HD disc. Now go back and read the rest of my previous post and do the math.

Mr. Blink sez: All it takes is a simple studio move to upset the whole track race (at this EARLY stage anyway)... and it's been upset twice now. If you think there won't be a third... forth... etc, then you are sadly mistaken.

You are the one who's been mistaken the entire time. Please point to ONE accurate prediction you made. You still seem to think the format war is at an early stage. You are... WRONG. In fact, it would take a team of top scientists to develop technology to that could make anything more wrong. Your wrongness is simply staggering. But please, feel free to point it out if the facts say anything different. You can't though, because the facts ALL agree with me. The war developed and ended EXACTLY how and when I said it would.

Fred... come now. BD hasn't won anything yet. A studio crossed the floor... nothing more. It could have happened now as easily as 6 months from now (and it'll happen again too... which way and who is anybody's guess). And it could have as easily been to the HD DVD side instead of the BD side.

Blink, this denial phase will pass, don't worry. BD has won. The only other studios who will cross now are Paramount and Universal. You are blind fanboy of HD-DVD if you think otherwise. And you can quote me on that and say "HA! You were wrong! I told you so!" if I'm proven wrong. But so far, guess what? *I* am the one who can say Ha, you were wrong, I told you so!

Blink sez: Oh and BTW... Just came back from Best buy... bought The Borne Ultimatum on...... yes, you guessed it... HD DVD Gonna go watch it now! ;)

Cool! And when you're finished watching it there's just about enough room for it on the shelf with your 8-Track collection!

I, for one, am sad to see this happening to HD-DVD. Forget the "potential" of Blu-Ray, as most consumers either don't care or don't know what some of the advanced features are. HD-DVD has been the more consumer/corporate oriented format, and we have done work that proves this.

1. We have authored feature length high definition movies on DVD-9. These can be replicated without significant upgrades to existing replication equipment.

2. We have been successful in marketing a "Hybrid" dual-format 3x HD-DVD/DVD to corporate clients, allowing them to showcase their products in high def, then give the same disc to clients for their DVD player at home.

3. HD-DVD has been much more friendly toward early HD adopters by allowing HD content to pass over Component connections (at least last time I checked).

4. HD-DVD will allow HDV to be burned to standard DVD-R's without much in the way of transcoding. Blu-ray stand alone decks need AVCHD content for standard DVD-R's to play back. Not all will even play this format. In fact, our Panasonic Blu-Ray deck won't even playback SD DVD-R's, nevermind upconverting them.

5. Replicating Blu-Ray is a very expensive proposition. One can count the number of replication facilities on one hand. You are REQUIRED to license the Blu-Ray DRM key and having a master pressed is an unholy amount of money for a small (or even moderate) corporate job. Last I read it was around $50,000 USD, but that may have come down significantly.

Blu-Ray has been designed from the beginning to benefit only the most profitable/wealthy clients. I am certain there will come a time, maybe in the near future, when Blu-Ray will open up its gates to us in the lowly corporate/consumer world, but HD-DVD already has, and that is/was somewhat comforting as a media producer. You guys can bicker all you want about which is "BETTER," but for my money, MY MONEY, HD-DVD seems like it would have been a better bet.

Sam's and Amazon have HD-DVD players for $128 bucks and they come with 7 movies. I might pick one up for home just so I can view my new HDV footage without having to hook my camera up or wait 3 days for it to transcode, and view my burned SD DVD's in near High Def.

Corey

Well said!

corug7,

How about burning HD content on HD-DVD-R or HD-DVD-RW disks with HD-DVD burner?

Any success?

This sounds great - next generation HD DVD format without next generation burnable blank media and without next generation burner.

This is just a great format!!!!!!!!!!

"How about burning HD content on HD-DVD-R or HD-DVD-RW disks with HD-DVD burner?
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Actually.... YES.

There's a guy on the Liquid forum that has had experience with a HD DVD burner and finds that it works well.

http://forums.pinnaclesys.com/forums/permalink/101798/103609/ShowThread.aspx#103609

The entire thread however is pretty interesting, give it a read (although I don't think you will agree.)

Wow!

That guy got HD DVD burnere that will burn 3 layers HD-DVD-R disk???!!!

Just Wow!!!

On a serious note he got his facts screwed up. HD DVD doesn't have hard coating.

Another failed spin by blink.

Ha-ha.

"On a serious note he got his facts screwed up. HD DVD doesn't have hard coating."
========================================
Ummm.... I think you read that a bit wrong.

He was commenting on the fact that HD DVD's DON'T HAVE a hardened scratch coat and they are thicker so that they can be refinished... UNLIKE bd.

You need to settle down there a pay a bit more attention!

Blink said: You need to settle down there a pay a bit more attention!

Pot, meet kettle.

"Pot, meet kettle."
===================
Kettle, meet saucer.

but 99 store?? Geeez..... no wonder they got it wrong with the beta/vhs thing!

Blink, are you familiar with statistics and the process of sampling? When the pollsters give us updates on how the candidates are doing, do you think they ask everybody in the US?

The funny part is that the HD DVD fanboys have been using the NPD numbers every week for the past twelve months to prove that HD DVD standalone players out-sold Blu-Ray standalone. Remember the debates over "attach rate"? It is rather sad that once the numbers start going the other way, all of a sudden the numbers are no longer reliable. HD DVD fanboys are like the Bush administration and its relationship to intelligence reports on WMDs in Iraq. Everything that the fanboys (for war or for a format) agree with is the word of "God" and everything that goes counter to the gospel is evil.

For me to buy into Blu ray now would be very much like owning a motorized vehicle and having to trade it in for a Flinstones peddle car.

Come on, that's just pathetic. Let's list all the wonderful things that an HD DVD player can do now that most Blu-Ray players can not do.

1/ Play HD DVD movies.
2/ Play The Bourne Identity
3/ Play The Bourne Ultimatum
4/ Play The Bourne Supremacy
5/ Function as a great door stop

Filet Mignon - medium rare

Filet Mignon - medium rare? Sacrilege! To quote (from memory, dicey) Fargo:

Waitress: How do you want you your steak? Medium? Rare?
Customer: De-horn it, slap it on the ass and send it right on in here.

MozartMan,

If I can put an entire movie, with menus, on a disc that costs less than a dollar, why would I use a disc that costs $20? If the movie is longer than 100 minutes, I might consider it, but if not, why?

I'm not anti-Blu-Ray, I'm pro-consumer. Most of what the company I work for produces doesn't requre thousands of dollars worth of encription keys, it just has to work in the device for which it is meant. Our hybrids work in PC, MAC, DVD, and show High definition content on HD-DVD decks. Do that with your 25 or 50 gig BD-R disc. You can't.

Edit: 6. Watch Transformers (which I still haven't done yet).

All it takes is a simple studio move to upset the whole track race (at this EARLY stage anyway)... and it's been upset twice now.

The only surprise move we have seen was Paramount crossing the floor as you say. It took $150M to move them too. Warner wasn't a surprise to anyone not wearing the blinders of fanboyism. Really. Warner management almost (by accident) said straight back in November they were going Blu exclusive. Given the time it takes to make decisions like that, with legal implications etc, there was exactly zero chance that Warner could go HD DVD exclusive in early 2008. Warner was offered significant incentives to stay neutral.

At this point in time there is only one studio that will cross the floor again, and my prediction is that they will do so before July 4th. There may be legal complications delaying that, I don't know what their agreement is like at all, and I take the rumors about an out-clause with a whole spade of salt. I sincerely hope that Paramount had at least the business sense to give them selves some options.

The problem for the HD DVD pipe dreamers is that there are no potential candidates for switching. Sony will never switch unless they are the only ones left. Disney is strongly behind Blu-Ray, and there aren't any incentives in existence (realistic ones) that could make them change. Fox is not going to change given their history with Microsoft.

On the other side of that you have Paramount and Universal, only one of which has shown any kind capability for format loyalty.

Is there a chance that HD DVD can win the format war? Sure, in the same way that there is a chance that pigs may evolve to have hollow bones, wings and whatever else is needed for air-borne operation.

So are you saying that NPD is WRONG

Blink, what is it that you think NPD does? Why do you think they can be right, wrong or anything in between? Do you know anything at all about how statistical sampling works? At all? Do you understand that when the popular media tells us that pollsters "were wrong" when they gave the New Hampshire primaries to Obama that the only thing the popular media did was once again prove that the popular media are a bunch of mentally retarded idiots?

OT: The amazing thing about having video as a hobby is that you meet so many smart people who do behind camera work. You'd think there was some chance that people with brains also did work in front of cameras. Sadly, the media is showing us, in horrific detail, that this is not the case. A single monkey in the LA zoo has more capacity of thought than the entire US press corps. OK, maybe there are two or three exceptions, but I haven't seen them yet.

It is a sad testament to our news organizations that shows like "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" offer far better insight into our society in a single show than the average news organization does in a whole year. And far better in-depth news analysis.

We have authored feature length high definition movies on DVD-9. These can be replicated without significant upgrades to existing replication equipment.

Good. What is stopping you from doing the same for BD? I have authored all my HD stuff on DVDs for now, and I play them in my Blu-Ray player. No problem.

We have been successful in marketing a "Hybrid" dual-format 3x HD-DVD/DVD

You have? What movie studio do you work for? Doing this for anyone but the big guys is expensive, but sure, I believe you. It isn't a bad idea at all, but do you think the client will mind terribly having a cover with two disks in it? I mean, if he does, he can take the DVD home with him and keep the HD version in the office, or vice versa. Is that a bad thing?

allowing HD content to pass over Component

Sorry if I am ignorant here, but doesn't both formats allow for 1080i over component?

HD-DVD will allow HDV to be burned to standard DVD-R's without much in the way of transcoding

You are right, most players will not play HDV (MPEG-2) off a standard DVD. Encoding into AVC shouldn't be an issue though, and given the ease of creating an AVCHD disk, I can't see that this is a strike against Blu-Ray at all. Honestly.

Replicating Blu-Ray is a very expensive proposition.

For volume, the price is within a few cents per disk at the moment. Given the requirements of DRM, this may be a problem. I am sure there is a simple solution to this for smaller companies, one easy one would be, for example, that the replication house has a DRM key and that they become the "distributor". For most corporate content this shouldn't be an issue, and with an appropriately worded agreement there shouldn't be any issues. Not sure what the Blu-Ray consortium would say, but we'll probably see soon enough.

Sam's and Amazon have HD-DVD players for $128 bucks

This is only because Toshiba and Microsoft heavily sponsors the players while Blu makers do not (the parts cost difference between a Blu-Ray and an HD DVD player is negligible). It is typically not a healthy practice unless you are pulling a Gilette: "Give them the razor, sell them the blades". The problem for Toshiba is that they have no blades to sell, so the formats only hardware supporter is engaged in heavy self-cannibalization. I would never recommend doing business with a vendor engaged in such self-cannibalization, since they have no incentive to stay in any kind of fight. Sony obviously have lots of blades to sell, both games and movies.

ust so I can view my new HDV footage without having to hook my camera up or wait 3 days for it to transcode

I'm sorry, but huh? Are you saying that you are on the cutting edge of small-operation film production (HDV) and the only way you can watch your footage is by either hooking up your camcorder to your TV or to convert it into a DVD of sorts? Are you seriously claiming that it takes 3 days to encode your footage into AVC format?

I do video as a hobby. Here is my workflow:

1/ Shoot the lates birthday, baptism, children-playing mush that I want to shoot.
2/ Connect camcorder to PC and "capture" over Fire Wire.
3/ Walk into living room to watch raw footage on my TV (no transcoding, no disk creation) over a streaming connection to my Blu-Ray player.
4/ Edit and stuff, all the while taking peeks on my TV over my network
5/ Make some sort of disk, AVCHD for those who want HD, DVD for the rest

Oh, and the AVC encoding doesn't take anywhere close to three days, even when I apply color correction and stuff. Not even close. Not unless I decide to encode an enormous amount of video.