OT: WB going blu ray exclusive

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p@mast3rs wrote on 1/5/2008, 5:49 PM
Ok, so heres my thoughts on this whole thing. While many are thumping their collective BD chests, this is BAD overall for the consumer. While I could personally give a crap which side wins, I have always felt that BD was more for the content owners than it was for the consumer. Players are still OVERPRICED and add to it unbelievable amount of copy protection. We heard so much about managed copies yet they still have not shown up.

HD DVD screwed up by not flooding the market. $100 players, cheaper movies would have gone a long way in swaying the battle. Not to mention the lack of HD DVD burners, authoring software etc...Mnay have thumped their chest about being the superior format which honestly, doesnt offer much more than HD DVD currently. But when you look at all the different "profiles", read as INCOMPATIBLE profiles, this has done nothing but screw consumers.

For HD DVD to have any chance at this point, instead of paying studios to switch to their camp, they should flood the market with HD DVD players sub $100, maybe even $50. Flood the market with HD DVD writers for around the same and flood the market with cheap HD DVD media. The real way for HD DVD to win is hope the pirates drive the market. May sound odd but what other choices do the HD DVD have at this point?

As we have talked here before, the future is NEITHER of these formats. The future is and will always be downloading content. Over the Xmas break, I visited some friends who chooses to violate copyrights and download HDTV captures that uses H.264 AVC at 720p. It looks amazing and this is all on a DVD-5. I can only imagine how much better it would look on a DVD-9. Studios could maximize their profits so much more if they would just embrace internet delivery sans DRM. By abandoning DRM for mp3/audio, sales have increased because the consumer NO LONGER has to travel top the store for their purchase. Video content should be the same way.

One area that has ALWAYS seemed to embrace technology is the porn industry. They have been offering downloads for years without DRM and it has seemed to be a pretty good distro model regardless of the content they are offering.

Last, I love Vegas and pretty much what Sony does with it. However, I do not want Sony making all of my choices for me in regards to what I can do with legally purchased content, how I wish to view it, where I wish to view it, and charge me an arm and a leg while doing it.

I also agree that should BD win, there will be different levels of quality authoring offered. One for studios to provide the much higher quality that will force people to buy their content and one for the lesser indie filmmakers, pirates, home hobbyists that will never look as good as what the studios produce.

BD winning is bad though. Consumers should be the ones with the control and unfortunately, corporate Sony will not let that happen. The WBs, Disney's etc... of the world will now be able to dictate just how many licenses you must purchase in order to view the content on your computer, HDTV, Ipod, etc.... I still dont believe in piracy but things like this start to make some curious about the benefits.
farss wrote on 1/5/2008, 6:36 PM
Speaking of piracy, I noticed this yesterday. So now they're saying simply copying the CD to you HDD is illegal. It was so down here but I believed that got relaxed when we went with much of the USA's fair use provisions under the FTA.

On the other side of the coin Sony BMG will be selling much of their catalogue online without DRM. Pehaps some sanity might finally prevail.

Bob.
apit34356 wrote on 1/5/2008, 7:43 PM
Farss, the "can't copy CD to the computer" will be an interesting battle, obvious they are going to argue the MP3 conversion is illegal in the end, but are using a shotgun approach in the beginning. Basely, every computer or ipod owner will be expected to paid a fee for owned media if it is converted-------- the question is, how are they going to enforce it with out criminal "threat" of imprisonment.

Blink, I can see the different, but I have large screens and don't view any HD1080 seriously under 60". But I using big screens since the early 80's when 500+lines with doublers was the in thing. Sony's OLEDs tech will make HD viewing in small screens, I think, around 17" to 32" sizes exciting and may reverse the 80-100" market demand.
4eyes wrote on 1/5/2008, 8:03 PM
When I view my 1080i and then a 1080p what I notice on the 1080p is I can get closer to it and still see the high picture quality, when I get as close to my 1080i it's not as clear.

When I view them both from about 9 - 11 ft away it's hard to tell the difference.

Of course my relative said I was wrong and his 1080p was clearer stating just look at it, it's much better. He also didn't know I change the resolution from 1080p to 1080i before he came back into the room :)
blink3times wrote on 1/5/2008, 8:57 PM
"When I view my 1080i and then a 1080p what I notice on the 1080p is I can get closer to it and still see the high picture quality, when I get as close to my 1080i it's not as clear."
==============================================
I would then suggest to you that your system needs calibrating.

I have a 60" plasma and the clarity is there (whether you talk i or p) at 10 feet just as it is at 3 feet (with a hi def signal... sd however is a disaster any closer than 8 feet)
4eyes wrote on 1/5/2008, 9:21 PM
It's only happens when playing HD-DVD's, not Blu-Ray Disks.

Joking of course, my next HDTV is going to be a plasma for the living room.
blink3times wrote on 1/5/2008, 9:48 PM
"my next HDTV is going to be a plasma for the living room"
==============================================
GOOD.

I have a LCD and 2 plasmas. Both Plasmas beat the pants off the lcd. A 42" is a good choice if you plan on pumping a standard tv signal though as well as hi def. The 60" is just brilliant for HD, but it sucks something awful with a standard cable signal. Watching Planet Earth on the 60 inch though was just breath taking!
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/5/2008, 10:31 PM
A-what does that article have to do with Rootkits? Exactly nothing?

B-So the BD consortium may have given some incentives to Warner. So what? It's not like Toshiba didn't do the exact same thing, and an action businesses, governments undertake every day, all over the world. It's no crime to incentivize to promote growth.

C-If you're going to bring up rootkits, at least know the history of them. Sony knew nothing of them. BMG had started the rootkit process prior to Sony acquiring them, and Sony was "infected" with their purchase of BMG. Sony screwed up in how they handled it, no doubt, but it wasn't an action Sony undertook.

BTW, Fred...you weren't the only one. :-)
War isn't over yet, and likely won't be, without tweaking a lot of consumers. But the attitude here at CES is that HD DVD is dead, and whether that's true or not, BD knocked Toshiba for a serious loop on the eve of CES. Retailer attitude and opinion will shape much of the fallout over the next 5 days. Who knows...Toshiba may reschedule their big press conference for another day this week, and announce that they're giving away 100 HD DVD discs with every $99.00 player sold. I'd buy another two or three units in that event.
p@mast3rs wrote on 1/5/2008, 11:06 PM
Ill jump in again. The article didnt state anything about root kits but I will guess the poster is concerned about the real possibility of Sony gaining control over this and not exactly having the best customer service record to this point. I dont fault Sony as much for the root kit fiasco but it was their product so sometimes they have to take the bad with the good.

Every indie filmmaker should be concerned I think as options for self distro, or small number distros just became more expensive. Furthermore, whats to stop Sony or the major studios now from preventing indie filmmakers from replicating content, keeping this technology for distribution all to themselves?
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/5/2008, 11:42 PM
Every indie filmmaker should be concerned I think as options for self distro, or small number distros just became more expensive

Do you know something the rest of us don't?
"The sky is falling" proclaimed Sony when their 1630 mastering system became obsolete....
"People will always prefer vinyl over CD because it sounds better" said many of the audiophiles around the world.
"DVDs will kill the independent film market because of the costs of replication vs VHS," was said at Sundance not so many years ago.
And the classic "why would anyone want a computer in their home?..."

The sky isn't falling. Blank BD's are about the same cost as blank CD's were when they first released, and about the same cost on scale as DVD blanks when they first released. They'll come down.
When DVDs first came out, there were darn few authoring tools available for a few years, and those were very expensive for a couple years. Same can be said for burning Redbook CD's, too.
The sky isn't falling, early adopters are paying the development and startup costs that early adopters have always paid, and in very good time, the cost of mastering, replicating BD will be on par with DVD.
That asked, how many DVDs, BD or otherwise, have you had replicated in the past two years?
Who here who *has* actually had runs of discs over the past two years seen the cost of replication go up? It's down significantly from just two years ago. And will continue to fall, just as CD's did.
I can remember when CDs were about $7.50 each with four color print and a jewel box or eco pak. And one day we'll all laugh about when BD was 9.00 per disc in runs of 1K units.
apit34356 wrote on 1/6/2008, 1:01 AM
nice history summary, DSE. I have been amazed about the crying about the cost of BR or HHD DVD. Its been fairly cheap in real $$ compared to the first consumer CD burners, but dropping prices(with more features) are a fact in electronics, little less in the consumer market.
Konrad wrote on 1/6/2008, 7:45 AM
Spot just made Winston Churchills case that "What man learns from history is that man learns nothing from history."

It took 17 years for Betamax to die after the war was won and it had a total life of over a quater century. Even if HD-DVD dies in May that does not mean Sony does not have competition. It has a ton of all digital broadband competitors with deep pockets.
Terje wrote on 1/6/2008, 8:05 AM
Not in a million years will you get me to believe that. Blu ray machines have a looooong way to go before they can match that of hd dvd players.

Simply not true anymore, and more importantly, you are missing a crucial point. The Blu-Ray format has two clear advantages over HD DVD. The format has significantly higher storage capacity, which means more content on one disk, and it has a higher bandwidth, which means that more content can be moved from the player to your TV with Blu-Ray than with HD DVD. More bandwidth translates into higher quality movies.

What is more important for you when you watch a movie, the picture quality of the movie, or the Ethernet connection of the player? Oh, and my Blu-Ray player has an Ethernet connection.

But the bottom line is that no format is any good without a player to play it.... and that's where blu ray has failed something awful.

Huh?
JohnnyRoy wrote on 1/6/2008, 8:08 AM
> Its been fairly cheap in real $$ compared to the first consumer CD burners

Yea, I still have the receipt for my first DVD burner from 1/8/2002:

1. PIONEER DVR-A03 DVD-R, DVD-RW DVD Drive Qty 1 $ 385.00
2. Pioneer DVD-R Media 4.7GB, DVS-R4700SD Single Pack Qty 2 $ 16.00

So two DVD-R cost me $8 each. You can buy a LiteOn 2x Blu-ray burner for $399 today and discs are $10 each. Not too far off from the norm for a newly introduced format.

Just to comment on Patrick's post:

> I have always felt that BD was more for the content owners than it was for the consumer. Players are still OVERPRICED and add to it unbelievable amount of copy protection.

Comparing prices just now at B&H the Samsung BD-P1400 Blu-ray player costs $309 and the Toshiba HD-A3 HD-DVD player costs $279. That's hardly way overpriced. One could argue that the BD-P1400 is closer to the HD-A30 which is $314 so for arguments sake I'd say that Blu-ray and HD-DVD players are about the same price now.

There is no reason for consumers not to buy Blu-ray. In fact, I bought a Toshiba HD-DVD player and my kids made me buy a Blu-ray player because all of the Disney movies and Sony movies like Spiderman 3 are only on Blu-ray. So my HD-DVD player is now a door stop with no real content to play. For my household the war is over and Blu-ray was the clear winner based solely on available compelling content. With the WB announcement, this is even more true.

HD-DVD really dropped the ball. For us content creators, the fact that there isn't a single HD-DVD burner on the market while Blu-ray is already releasing it's second generation 4x burners means that HD-DVD isn't even in the competition. It's just stilling on the bench watching.

~jr
Terje wrote on 1/6/2008, 8:12 AM
blink:

Nothing happened behind the scenes. Warner took a look at the reality and they made a sound business decision. As you say, it was a virtual stalemate until Warner made this decision, with the Blu-Ray format having a slight, let's say 65/35 advantage. Neither was a winner though. Both formats were suffering from slower than desired take-up due to the stalemate. The consumer was on the fence, and everybody was losing.

So, what alternatives do Warner have?

1/ Stay format neutral and prolong the format war for years. Consumers stay on the fence. Nobody wins. Including Warner.

2/ Go HD DVD exclusive. This is an interesting one since it would not have given any of the sides a decisive victory. Too much power behind what would then be the underdog, namely Blu-Ray. Sony and Disney would have been pushing Blu for another long while, and the stalemate would have been prolonged. Everybody loses.

3/ Go Blu-Ray exclusive. This is a decisive move. HD DVD is now dead. There is nothing Tosh or MS can do to recover from this, honestly, there isn't. Not shy of buying up one of the major studios that have gone Blu and changing their policy. The format war is over. The consumer can be invited down from the fence with a clear message - "there is only one reasonable choice you can make, now go make it".

We all benefit from this format war being over. Sadly Toshiba will, out of pride, throw good money after bad for another while and some consumers will, out of ignorance, buy into the HD DVD format. They will lose. Tosh will lose. Too bad.
JJKizak wrote on 1/6/2008, 8:37 AM
Well what about this:
China doesn't give a hoot about Bluray/HD-DVD as they are coming up with their own. Same for"
India, France, Germany, Russia, Tiawan, etc. We will still be in the Bluray/HD-DVD war while everybody else is into 3D holographic.
JJK
blink3times wrote on 1/6/2008, 9:11 AM
"Nothing happened behind the scenes."
=================================================
Something that BOTH you and I will never know for sure.






"2/ Go HD DVD exclusive. This is an interesting one since it would not have given any of the sides a decisive victory. Too much power behind what would then be the underdog, namely Blu-Ray. Sony and Disney would have been pushing Blu for another long while, and the stalemate would have been prolonged. Everybody loses."
=======================================
Not so sure about everybody losing. It's clear what would happen (and has happened) with WB siding with BD, but if they had sided with HD DVD, it would have been quite interesting to say the least.. Word has it that HD DVD sales over the Xmas Holidays were pretty good.... A news bulletin issued with regards to the HD DVD cancellation at CES:

HD DVD cancels CES press conference after Warner's snub
Coursedesign wrote on 1/6/2008, 9:53 AM
HD DVD will continue to have a presence on the CES show floor, and BetaNews will be on top of all new announcements.

How appropriate to have BetaNews cover the future of HD DVD!

:O)

I saw Blade Runner 2007 Final Cut on BD (2nd Collector's Edition, redone mastering) last night on a 10' Stewart Film Screen fed by a Sony VPL-VW50 full res HD projector.

Sooooo, how was it?

Let me put it this way: "It doesn't need to get any better than that."

And that is something I only say about once per decade.

And you knew that Harrison Ford was a replicant too, right?

And that the rain was added only last minute?

Next I gotta revisit The Fifth Element.

It really is a different experience compared to even the best uprezzing of a DVD.

(Beware of buying any bargain bin BD disks, check first that they weren't the infamous early transfers of very poor quality. Sony should have exchanged all they knew about, but I expect many customers/resellers didn't bother.)

p@mast3rs wrote on 1/6/2008, 9:56 AM
Again, instead of giving Warner the rumored $500M, why not take that money and knock off $$$$ on current BD offerings that would benefit the consumer instead of some rich studio? Why? Because these formats are NOT for the consumer, they have their own vested interests and its customers are not one of them.
Cheno wrote on 1/6/2008, 10:16 AM
Welcome to the wonderful world of Hollywood bean counters, Patrick. It hasn't been about the consumer for a number of years ;)
p@mast3rs wrote on 1/6/2008, 10:22 AM
Agreed and thats why you have piracy these days. Seems the cycle will never end.
Spot|DSE wrote on 1/6/2008, 10:26 AM
If these formats are not for the consumer, who are they for? That's simply a silly, prejudiced statement. Of course they're for the consumer.
If it took 500M to "end the format war" then it's a damn good investment, no different than if Americans could pay 5B to end the war in Iraq tomorrow, we would.
Toshiba/Microsoft undertook identical incentivizations, they lost serious cash as a result of their promotions which they'd hoped would solidify their standing in the market. Not only did they never once eclipse BD sales, they never touched BD overall in terms of hardware sales. In November of 07, 70% of the high def DVDs sold were BD. December is expected to improve slightly upon that number. Netflix rents BD 3:1 over HD DVD(source: Videobusiness Magazine).
Yes, the BD consortium and their partner studios DO have their own "vested interests." It's called "profit." It's the concept around which business is built. They developed the format, now they should enjoy the financial rewards as a result, if the format is truly what the consumer wants, and the spent $$ on the format seem to indicate it is. Don't you want to enjoy profit from your ventures? Weren't you the guy who had a script you were pimping here for 5K? Wouldnt' that have been a profit?

Saying BD or HD DVD "aren't consumer formats" is asinine, Patrick. These are consumer formats just as CD and DVD have been. It's just the next step in the path of evolving technology.
blink3times wrote on 1/6/2008, 10:32 AM
On the one hand I would agree with you... IF $500M changed hands then so be it... business is business.

But on the other hand I believe that the studios are pushing BD more for THEIR own reasons as opposed to the consumers benefit.
p@mast3rs wrote on 1/6/2008, 11:01 AM
When I say the formats are for the consumer, I am correct. The formats are being sold to the consumer but these formats are for the studios to further make money. Other than higher resolution, they hardly bring anything for the consumer other than a higher price tag. These formats are also for the studio's attempt to try and regain content control and prevent piracy (which I am not opposed of) so they can continue dictating content consumption.

Again, other than better resolution, the consumer doesnt stand to gain that much more than what is offered with DVD currently yet with an extremely increased cost to be a player in the game.

With regards to your earlier post about bitching about costs for the indie filmmaker, this is a very valid concern for most in that line of work. Granted costs will come down in time but it will be when the studios decide to let the smaller guys play in the game. Again, if this format is supposed to be for the consumer, then why should I care if BD backers make money?

The problem with the BD chest thumpers is we do not know what the consumer wants as Warner was bought out. The consumer will be left with a choice that is made for them rather than a choice they have made.

Anyway you argue it, BD backers stand to gain more from next gen dvds than the consumer and that is exactly why I said it was not a format for the consumers.