OT: blueray vs HD-DVD

apit34356 wrote on 8/15/2007, 12:35 PM

OK, this is a re-hash, but the NYTimes published this----
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Blu - Ray Outpaces HD - DVD In U.S.: Home Media Research

Article Tools Sponsored By
By REUTERS
Published: August 14, 2007

Filed at 9:28 p.m. ET
Skip to next paragraph Reuters

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Blu-ray high-definition movie discs outsold films on the rival HD-DVD format by 2-to-1 in the United States in the first half of 2007, Home Media Research said on Tuesday.

The division of Home Media Magazine said total sales of Blu-ray discs, using a Sony Corp <6758.T>-backed technology, totaled 1.6 million units from January 1 through July 1, compared with 795,000 HD-DVD discs sold in that period.

HD-DVD was developed by Toshiba Corp <6502.T> and backed by Microsoft Corp <MSFT.O> and film studios such as Warner Bros.

Both formats were launched in spring of 2006. An estimated 3.7 million high-definition discs have been sold, including 2.2 million in Blu-ray and 1.5 million in HD-DVD through the end of July, according to Home Media.

A Home Media spokeswoman said Blu-ray got a further boost in August from strong sales of the "300" title. Stephen Nickerson, senior vice president, market management at Warner Home Video <TWX.N>, reported sales of about 190,000 Blu-ray units of the film, versus 97,000 in HD-DVD since July 31.

The industry-wide standards war is reminiscent of the VHS and Betamax battle.

Blockbuster Inc <BBI.N>, the largest U.S. provider of home movie entertainment, in June set out plans to line its shelves with Blu-ray DVDs, saying Blu-ray rentals were "significantly outpacing" HD-DVD rentals.
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The real interesting fact is the BR "300" outsold the HD-DVD by a good margin with the HD-DVD having all the special features. The numbers include all the give-aways, which should have reflected HD-DVD big push for sales.
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Humor has it that Universal studios wants MS to underwrite future HD-DVD market sales or they will start producing BR --- Universal is said to have pointed out that the HD-DVD add-on for X360 did not meet projected volumes and the X360 box failure is way above normal. MS is stated to have pointed out that they are stepping up to the marketing issues with a new aggressive program. Universal wants $5B (over two years) committed to the HD-DVD product line and movie content promotion. MS points to the HALO3 release as device to push more add-ons......
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MS is still piss-off about Java being used for BR after MS has lost it legal battle over Java. And MS has no control over Java licensing or royalties. And with SCO ( with MS funding) has lost a major legal battle over Unix ownership, MS legal claims on Linux thru SCO deals is now dead. MS has stall Linux for 4 years, but it did not stop all development, IBM, Sony(PSP3), etc. The question is-----spend money on; anti-BR or more anti-Linux . Imagine IBM, Sony, AMD and Lenox building a small desktop/ laptop with quad and cell chips pair with advance power management with new Linux.

Comments

GregFlowers wrote on 8/15/2007, 3:24 PM

I think one thing that is hurting HD-DVD, especially on titles available in both formats like "300", is the combo format that HD-DVD insists on releasing. It is a good idea - having an HD and SD DVD version on one disc. The problem is that they charge $4-5 more for it. So in effect I'm forced to buy an HD and SD version at once. That's why I personally bought the Blu-Ray version of 300 instead of the HD-DVD version. Becuase it was a little cheaper.

My personal opinion is that the format war is long from being over in spite of Blu-Ray's current lead. I think its really just getting started and there may never be a single HD format. While no one wants to invest in a potentially losing format, I can't imagine why some spend thousands of dollars on HDTVs and high end audio equipment and sit idly by missing out on the two greatest audio and video quality formats ever released to the public. The worst thing that could happen is they end up with a high end SD DVD upscaler or an excellent video game console/media center.

If you want to enjoy HD movies and can afford it, do yourself a favor and get an HD DVD and/or BLU Ray player.

blink3times wrote on 8/15/2007, 7:13 PM

"My personal opinion is that the format war is long from being over in spite of Blu-Ray's current lead."
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I'm in 100% agreement with you... I truly do not believe numbers mean a whole lot this early in the game.

Here's a neat little article basically stating to take it ALL with a grain of salt:

http://www.edn.com/index.asp?layout=blog&blog_id=400000040&blog_post_id=1140013114

Laurence wrote on 8/15/2007, 7:19 PM

Boy am I hoping that neither side wins and that eventually dual standard players are the norm.

blink3times wrote on 8/15/2007, 7:32 PM

Well from my point of view, people like us (video editors) NEED hd dvd... up until now so far, blu ray has certainly NOT been very nice to us.

apit34356 wrote on 8/15/2007, 8:06 PM

blink3times, that article just push his opinion without actually stating sources, just making noise for the HD-DVD crowd. If you really are interested in the "real" facts, retail sales are collected by a number of sources and are well published. But even more simpler, wall street analyst study detail company reports for production cost/volumes, shipments, A/Rs ------ and a good researcher will analyze the supplier volumes and payment being received from the manufacturer, then analyze the retail clients; $$$volumes, shipper cost, rebate processing cost/volume.....etc..... They do this for investing, market "noise" can lead to disastrous investing, which the big investment banks don't like. With Commercial credit getting more difficult to get, banks are doing more aggressive research on product lines that retailers are pushing. Investment banking are moving away from HD-DVD crowd even as MS is pushing more $$ into the this market. Universal parent company is not that supportive of HD-DVD when it comes to credit-line costs, so a few heads will roll if prime continues going up on the credit-line monies. MS can fund low interest loans but can not take losses that appear to be bad decisions on products with no future( this could lead to no tax write-offs), and they do not want stockholders suing(tho, recent court ruling are limiting this).

Laurence wrote on 8/15/2007, 8:14 PM

"Well from my point of view, people like us (video editors) NEED hd dvd... up until now so far, blu ray has certainly NOT been very nice to us."
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No kidding! But we are just an insignificant blip in the overall scheme of things.

blink3times wrote on 8/16/2007, 3:08 AM

"blink3times, that article just push his opinion without actually stating sources, just making noise for the HD-DVD crowd."
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First, I thought the article was pretty neutral and wasn't necessarily "just making noise" for either crowd.

Second, You missed the entire point of the article which is that the "facts" aren't even really facts here.

Third, I'm not dumb... I know perfectly well how sales research is carried out, and how a "good researcher will analyze...." etc, etc. But I also know that these "good researchers" got it DEAD wrong during the beta/vhs mess. The economy is taking a bit of twist as of late because these "good researchers" got it DEAD wrong in housing and mortgages, and made it a little too easy for people who couldn't afford a house.... to actually buy one.

Your article suggests that:
"2.2 million in Blu-ray and 1.5 million in HD-DVD through the end of July, according to Home Media."
Even if it is true... what the heck is 2.2 million in the grand scheme of things?? The population ALONE in the usa is about 300million. IF you're suggesting that BD has pretty much mopped the floor because they *MAY* be 700thousand disks ahead in sales, then I suggest that it is a rather insane presumption to make given the untapped market that's out there... this whole thing could change at the drop of a hat, ANY time. If this was a Federal election, they would more than likely call for a vote recount because the numbers are so tight. The ONLY thing that these numbers can positively state at this stage of the game is that the vast majority of the public is NOT buying into the wonderful world of hi def as of yet.

What you're dealing with here are a couple of corporations/partnerships that have invested HUGE amounts of money in on their team... 700 thousand disks is nothing more than a 'needle in the haystack' scenario.

Bottom line guy.... I think your "good researchers" are blowing about as much air as the next person, and it is just too early to rely on numbers in any serious fashion. Furthermore, I think there's a good chance that BOTH these formats could lose out. The REAL war against DVD hasn't even really started yet. ALL the movie studios whether you're talking on the BD or HD DVD side, are STILL producing dvd's like there is no tomorrow.... and they're being bought. People on the HD DVD side of things like to state how inexpensive their machines are. Well, you can pick up a dvd player at your local grocery store these days for about the price of a single dvd. That's pretty tough to match, and the longer this war goes on, the greater the chance of another faster, more efficient delivery system slipping in and stealing the show.

craftech wrote on 8/16/2007, 4:30 AM

that article just push his opinion without actually stating sources, just making noise for the HD-DVD crowd
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Speaking of "just pushing opinion without actually stating sources and just making noise for the HD DVD crowd", the Blu-Ray crowd was handing out booklets like this that was included with the CES Daily News publication and made available to all attendees at the 2007 CES on the first day of the show.

It was full of propaganda articles with distorted information and statistics (much of it based on "projected" sales and the assumption that PS3 owners all buy Blu-ray movies.

That was months ago, long before the actual sales figures began to come in. A nasty and obnoxious Blu-Ray crowd that started the whole "let's kill the competition any way we can" business IMO. And let's not forget their practice of offering stores like Target and others "two for the price of one" sales and then counting each of those as TWO discs sold.

John

Spot|DSE wrote on 8/16/2007, 8:19 AM

craftech wrote on 8/16/2007, 9:04 AM

no John, they weren't.
That is a faked up page from Broadcast Daily. Having received that publication every day (twice a day) and advertising in it at the show...I'd have to physically hold one and turn its pages.
IMO, it's more BS by someone trying to push or provoke the debate.
Provide proof in the form of multiple copies somewhere, or provide a retailer that actually received one, I'll accept it, but to my eye, it's apparently a reasonably good Photoshop job, but not good enough to quite pass muster. Even the charts look faked, let alone some of the color scheming.
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The photo was posted several months ago on the AVS Forum by someone who attended the first day of the show and received the booklet.. It was a BOOKLET that was included with the CES Daily News publication according to the attendee.

And let's not forget, I have consistently been in favor of both formats surviving despite the many threads on this subject here and elsewhere on the net. I don't like monopolies - never did. That should be obvious from all my OT posts and responses.

John

JJKizak wrote on 8/16/2007, 9:05 AM

As I said before I am of the firm belief that Sony will not allow DVD-A to write to Bluray or HD-DVD discs. And if they do it will be some kind of new system that will not compromise commercially made movies. This would make Bluray burning proprietory to Vegas & DVD-A.
JJK

apit34356 wrote on 8/16/2007, 9:43 AM

"But I also know that these "good researchers" got it DEAD wrong during the beta/vhs mess." blink3times, the late 70's&80's did not have big national banks(large multi-state banks and international banks) and US banking actually supported the VHS market development because Hollywood was mostly owned by US investors. Today, Sony owns a major studio and has studio partners that are the bulk of movies and TV show producers, plus today, Sony is a big name brand now vs the the early days of VHS wars. I remember marketing guys drawing comparison of Beta production to the 60's Japan's cars, which was totally wrong but a great sound bite (similar to the today's HD-DVD rumor mill, except the big money is not behind HD-DVD).

To extend HD-DVD life, MS must commit to integrating the HD-DVD into the X360 in aggressive market push, plus they need update the older X360's soon(?) as their few partners are wanting?

"The population ALONE in the usa is about 300million." Do you think that 300 million people own a DVD player? But for people that own a DVD player, many own more that one. But the real problem here is how many actually own a new HD TV( not older than 2 years). This is the real test of the market for players and the PSP3.

Many computer products come and go, HD-DVD is closer to a computer product item that a retail product. Remember, MS is heavy involved in this product and when has MS produced any commercial retail product hasn't had serious problems?

But I do think HD-DVD has a limited market use and a dual player would permit a cost solution for low-end volumes while looking "current". But the catch here is, HDV cameras are being introduce with BluRay recorders and now the retail consumer is being shown a complete product line using BluRay. Where is HD-DVD in the camera market(DVD3 solution)?

fwtep wrote on 8/16/2007, 10:09 AM

Blink, this war will be decided by the few million people, not by the 300 million people. This is not the 1970's. If BluRay continues (and improves upon) its dominance, it will be "all over but for the funeral" for HD-DVD. See, these days people are more than happy to wait out the war; they've already invested a lot in regular DVD and are quite happy with it. But that wasn't the case at all with VHS and Beta. Times have changed. Another example of times changing is that this time the porn industry won't have an impact on the war. In fact, they've specifically said that they're waiting for a clear winner before they jump in (there's less than a dozen porn titles available now).

As has been pointed out ad-infinitum here, the current trend leans hugely toward BR, and there's nothing at all on the horizon for HD to challenge it. The sales figures for "300" should have been a big clue, but the HD fanboys have the amazing ability to brush aside reality and talk up the future. "The war isn't over!" Oh really? Then can you point to a battle? I don't see one any more. I see BR, (much more expensive, mind you) clobbering HD. And as soon as BR players come down to the $200 price range it'll be over for HD pretty much instantly.

For example, they brush aside the fact that BR consistently sells double the number of discs and a ton more players than HD, yet flaunt Onkyo's upcoming HD player as if it's going to have even the slightest, most miniscule effect on anything. Believe me, if the tables were turned and HD was selling two to one over BR, and the BR camp said "it's not over yet, look Onkyo is coming out with a player" they'd be laughed off the planet.

GregFlowers wrote on 8/16/2007, 11:04 AM

I mean no disrespect to anyone, but I do not for the life of me understand how any of you can be so in love with one format and so hate the other. THEY ARE BOTH GREAT! I have both so I know. Both look and sound awsome with good transfers. It is really a childish pissing contest. Blu-Ray has the lead thus far and I really love my PS3 as a media console. I also love my Toshiba A1 as an awsome DVD upconverter and watch all of my SD DVDs on it.

FWTEP - You said it will be all over for HD DVD when Blu-Ray hits $200. But HD DVD is much closer to $200 now and will be even cheaper by the time Blu-Ray makes it to $200. I really don't care which format wins. Whatever money I may lose in obsolete equipment I have more than made up for with my current enjoyment of both formats.

I can play my raw HDV .m2t files straight from a flash drive using the PS3 or I can make nice looking red laser HD DVDs on the Toshiba. This is the greatest time for home theater and video enthusiasts and many aren't taking full advantage of it.

Laurence wrote on 8/16/2007, 11:07 AM

But what about us video guys? For me to make a reliable BD-R that a regular Bluray player can read is pretty tough: $600+ burner, $20 blanks, and even then it won't read in the only Bluray player that is close to a reasonable price. Meanwhile an HD DVD on DVD-R costs me thirty cents to make and will play reliably in every HD DVD player out there.

I mean, it wasn't that long ago on this forum when people where talking about cheap HDV cameras to use as playback decks and some of the HD DivX compatible DVD players so that they could play back their projects in their home theaters. HD DVD is so much better than all of that, and for the time being at least, HD DVD absolutely blows Bluray out of the water for home burned content.

I didn't buy my HD DVD player so that I could watch movies like "Hot Rod" in high definition. I bought it so that I could publish and view my own content in HD.

blink3times wrote on 8/16/2007, 11:17 AM

"I mean no disrespect to anyone, but I do not for the life of me understand how any of you can be so in love with one format and so hate the other. THEY ARE BOTH GREAT!"
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Technically speaking I think either format could work as the next gen format... but from my point of view Sony has done almost NOTHING for us video people. They've even gone to the extent of restricting AVCHD edit to sony cams in Vegas.

FWTEP:

I'll only say one thing: you have your view and I have mine and neither one of us are going to change them. Mom always said that one stubborn person will never change the mind of another stubborn person.

APIT:
The blu ray cams that are coming out.... are Sony cams so I am not at all sure what your point is?? Am I supposed to be surprised that they're not HD DVD cams?? "Full line".... come on give me a break with this rubbish... blu ray burners have been out for how long??? And they're STILL virtually useless. Do you REALLY believe the bluray cam is going to do much more than take up shelf space in a store?

blink3times wrote on 8/16/2007, 11:37 AM

"I mean, it wasn't that long ago on this forum when people where talking about cheap HDV cameras to use as playback decks and some of the HD DivX compatible DVD players so that they could play back their projects in their home theaters. HD DVD is so much better than all of that, and for the time being at least, HD DVD absolutely blows Bluray out of the water for home burned content.

I didn't buy my HD DVD player so that I could watch movies like "Hot Rod" in high definition. I bought it so that I could publish and view my own content in HD."
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I couldn't agree more! Without HD DVD, I would be still down rezzing my hd to dvd and watching a lot of snow and noise along with the picture.

apit34356 wrote on 8/16/2007, 1:56 PM

"The blu ray cams that are coming out.... are Sony cams so I am not at all sure what your point is?" well, again, your are wrong. Hitachi DZ-BD7H will record to both hard drive and Blu-Ray disk, this is just one of the cameras. This just one of many products that should be help drop media cost.

"I'll only say one thing: you have your view and I have mine and neither one of us are going to change them. Mom always said that one stubborn person will never change the mind of another stubborn person." True, but your are a Vegas user, which reflects an open mind. ;-)

"Do you REALLY believe the bluray cam is going to do much more than take up shelf space in a store?" Marketing 101 ----- less shelf space for the other "product". Being successful in the consumer market requires being present, in a very visible form. If Apple picks up the HD-DVD product line and pushs it, it may be come a video product tool with legs.

"but from my point of view Sony has done almost NOTHING for us video people" Well, you are probably right about Sony not offering a cheap media solution during this transition period. But you want the BMW car and can only afford the 8 year old chevy, so if your market can not bare the cost, then choose the cheaper one. You have chosen your current options, and the cost of the HD-DVD solution is not significant in the overall picture and it works for you. But this solution of yours has little or no impact of the retail market.

The really important question remains "Does this fit the paying client needs and the client's image of your work?" ;-) If it does, then it is the perfect solution for your market at this moment (I'm not trying to slam you, many markets can not afford new advancements-which sometimes is a good thing).

Laurence wrote on 8/16/2007, 6:34 PM

Bluray technology is going to improve and get cheaper. I'll bet in three or four years, the blank BD-R discs are somewhere down in the three to four dollar range. Of course the quality of the video won't be any better than what I can do on an HD DVD on DVD-R disc right now...

Like I said before, I don't want HD DVD to win. I just want it to hang out long enough for dual format players to be the norm. Us little guys will be way ahead if that's what ends up happening.

blink3times wrote on 8/16/2007, 8:34 PM

Now THIS is funny... Combined BD/HD DVD sales have AT LEAST caught up to VHS. That rather outrageous statement comes to mind the BD camp made a short time ago about BD taking over dvd "inside of 3 years"

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/33302/118/

Spot|DSE wrote on 8/16/2007, 8:54 PM

The photo was posted several months ago on the AVS Forum by someone who attended the first day of the show and received the booklet.. It was a BOOKLET that was included with the CES Daily News publication according to the attendee.

Sorry, I ain't buying. I was at CES, in Sony's booth, on opening day of the show. I taught the HD seminars at CES for Future Media Concepts beginning before the CES show opened, and after it closed. I was there two days before CES opened, and one day after CES closed. I received the CES Daily every day, both a.m. and p.m. editions.
Had this actually existed at CES, the BD consortium would have been sued for copyright violation. It's a badly modified copy of the CES/Broadcast daily, published and printed in Las Vegas by a jobber that does nothing but print this magazine for trade events. Exactly the same colors, layout, etc.
Additionally, the line of "billions and billions of Blu" is a violation of the BD trademark, and that's not going to happen out of their own camp. Only the terms "Blu-ray" or BD.
Unless someone can put a copy of this "print" in my hands, or provide any information as to who allegedly published it, it falls in to the category of FUD or agenda-based creative Photoshopping. The headline text is improperly sized given the print area, and overall, it looks as fake as it is.

Regardless of which side of the argument taken, you wrote that "the Blu-Ray crowd was handing out booklets like this" at CES when they weren't. While it's a fun and lively debate, wouldn't you agree that it's not fair to either side when fake information or false claims are made?

fwtep wrote on 8/17/2007, 8:40 AM

On the news front for Blu-Ray, Disney just announced that 2008 will see the Blu-Ray releases of Sleeping Beauty (a full "Platinum Edition"), Finding Nemo, Chronicles of Narnia, and National Treasure. (Not that the latter will have as much impact as the former, but I thought it was a fun movie; better than The DaVinci code, of which it was sort of an advance ripoff of. :-) )

I know it's just a matter of opinion at the moment (i.e. until it happens and the numbers come in), but I think the release of these titles will have a far greater impact on the war than the news that Onkyo is releasing an HD-DVD player that costs more than double what you can get a Toshiba for.

blink3times wrote on 8/17/2007, 9:20 AM

"but I think the release of these titles will have a far greater impact on the war than the news that Onkyo is releasing an HD-DVD player that costs more than double what you can get a Toshiba for."
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Well.... My Mommy is stronger than your Mommy is! :)

apit34356 wrote on 8/17/2007, 10:10 AM

Alright!!! you started this!!!!! "your mom"------- ;-)

My Mom "Sony" is going to kick your Evil Step-Mom "MS" butt till her fake hair falls off and her uneven boob job moves to her bare head at the Christmas Party at the Old Farts School of Poor Boardcasting! Plus my Mom's cookies (disks) will be pickup 3 to 1 to yours! Of course, I know your Evil Step-Mom cooking disk "Halo3" will be a mega hit because she adds cocaine to the mix------- and that extra trap door with video of her undergoing a her sex change operation because she/he ex-lover-- Intel, decided that Steve Jobs was more "fun" and had more drugs and international dealers. :-)

Oh, before I forget, "HD-DVD" is a secret Internet handshake for the "666" crowd that eat puppies and reads Al Gore secret dairies --- A Farmboy and the milk machine accident - the real gore in gore story! ;-)