On the dual format disc (HD-DVD and DVD) I personaly don't like the old dual sided DVD's. I like my discs to have a label that's easy to read and doesn't have to be kept clean on both sides. I'm not in favor of having an entire library of the things.

Besides that I like the Blu-Ray technology better simply for the larger capacity.

Rob Enderle:

1. is a paid hack who has been pushing HD DVD from the very start.

2. is a paid consultant for Microsoft.

3. is/was a paid consultant for Toshiba.

4. is the same guy who's been predicting the death of Apple since 1995.

5. is the same guy who claimed that Walmart had declared HD-DVD the victor by reporting that Walmart had made a deal to sell 2 million chinese players while it had been proven false the day earlier.

This guys is a moron.

"On the dual format disc (HD-DVD and DVD) I personaly don't like the old dual sided DVD's."
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In the long run I would agree with you. But in these times of uncertainty (as to which format will take the cake), it's nice to know that I can buy a disk and I will still be able to use it should the HD DVD format die. I also have dvd players in other parts of the house. With the flippers I am not restricted to the HD DVD player in the living room.

I wouldn't expect flippers to be a permanent issue. They're designed for this moment in time to better accommodate those living in both worlds.

Blink,
Nelson Stats... these were the same numbers you were using to predict the BD landslide a short time ago.... yes?
Yep. And currently BR is selling 71% of high-def discs. That's not a landslide? Are you using some novel new definition of "landslide?" If the numbers were reversed, and HD had the 71% you can bet the HD crowd would be calling it a landslide.

Ranking at Amazon IS sales.
Yeah, but it's not NUMBERS of sales. In other words, if it was a really really slow week, the #1 chart topper might have sold only ten copies. So the combo disc of "300" was at #3. What does that mean in SALES? We have no idea at all. It's not even possible to make an educated guess.

I do tend to trust tha Amazon sales.... they haven't looked like that for Amazon in quite some time. Why would they fake it now??
I never said anything about fake. I said there's no way to correlate the rankings with the number of units sold. And since they're updated constantly, all it says is what's going on at that moment. When my movie came out I seriously considered telling everyone I knew who was going to buy it to wait until that Thursday (a slow sales day) and all buy it at the same time. That way I'd be at the top of the charts, even if just for a brief time. I'm NOT, I repeat, I'm NOT saying the HD-DVD crowd did anything like that intentionally, but I'm saying that the smallest spike at the right moment can look bigger than it is.

And I never said there wasn't a spike in HD-DVD activity. I'm merely saying that it's fairly negligible. Just like how the $299 players that the HD crowd was cheering about turned out to be negligible. We'll see in a couple of weeks how the sales go. So far, it hasn't impacted BR at all.

And if all Paramount/DW has for big guns is Transformers and Shrek, well, those will certainly sell, but it still won't be enough. BR has virtually every other big movie-- even from just Disney alone there's Pirates 3, Ratatouille (which was way better than Shrek), etc. As I said, I don't have either format yet, but of movies that are currently available, or have been announced, there's only one title that I would want on BR but that's only HD ("The Adventures of Robin Hood" but Warner says they'll have a BR of that soon too). Going the other way around, there are LOTS of titles that I'd want on HD but are only BR. If player prices get down to $200 this Christmas I might buy one. (I just remembered on other title on the horizon: I'll gladly give up Transformers in exchange for Close Encounters, which will be BR exlusive.)

Lastly, with regard to the pie chart in your newspaper and the PS3 not being taken seriously by number crunchers, well, that's just too bad for them. Fine, let them not take it seriously; and then let them scratch their heads over how BR sells so many discs when there aren't nearly as many players out there. The thing is, most adults aren't buying PS3's, but the number crunchers and analysts are adults. Their blinkers are on and they're not seeing the full picture. Consequently they're working with faulty information and giving false stats (like the 61% HD-DVD players one).

That's not a landslide?

Not by a long shot. "Expected" is more the word I would use given the rather lop sided studio support. Not withstanding 71% of all hi res disks amounts to very little... which is why I keep trying to tell you that anything is possible given the rather huge untapped market still available... just think VHS sales because that's what this is presently compared to.

"In other words, if it was a really really slow week, "

That's not the issue the issue is that there are CLEAR signs that HD DVD is increasing in activity. I don't for a second expect HD DVD to overrun BD tomorrow, or next week or...etc, but there is now an overwhelming chance that they will catch up sooner or later now that Paramount has gone exclusive. (And it has also been confirmed that Chinese HD DVD players will be available for the Holiday season... no word on pricing yet)

"I'm merely saying that it's fairly negligible."

I don't think anybody even really knows that yet... not even your beloved Nelson people. What's it been since Paramount went HD DVD... a week, maybe 2??

And if all Paramount/DW has for big guns is Transformers and Shrek, well, those will certainly sell, but it still won't be enough."

Won't be enough for what... a win? Like Microsoft said.... all you gotta do is sell a million players and the studios will start listening to you. Which is why the PS3 is so great.... people are more interested in buying it and not an actual player.

Regardless to whether or not the crunchers have their blinkers on, they have concluded that people who buy game consoles don't buy as many movies as those who buy movie only players. As a result, they are not treated as seriously.

Not a landslide? Expected? Come on, if that's true then there was no format war at all-- "We expected more people to buy BR players and we expected more people to buy BR discs." What did the HD camp expect to have on its side during the war? The truth is, HD came out first and had a huge lead. Because not only was BR late, but when it finally appeared it was riddled with problems, some of which are only now being addressed. Why couldn't HD maintain that lead? If they expected poor sales, why even bother?


That's not the issue the issue is that there are CLEAR signs that HD DVD is increasing in activity.
No, that's not necessarily true. You didn't understand my point. Amazon's rank is a factor of what's *not* selling as much as it is of what *is* selling. For example, the rank of a disc can go up even if it doesn't sell any more than it regularly does. All that has to happen is for other discs to sell less. See? Moving up in the ranking does not necessarily mean that an item is selling any more than it did before. It CAN mean it's selling more, and certainly that happens, but until the actual sales figures are out on Sunday night, we just don't know if there really is a spike at Amazon (or anywhere else) or not.


Like Microsoft said.... all you gotta do is sell a million players and the studios will start listening to you.
Microsoft is wrong. Players won't decide the winner, disc sales will. That's why MS paid Paramount, not another hardware maker. The studios are going to support the format that sells the most discs. They'll support the one with the most players ONLY IF it's also the one selling the most discs.

As for the number crunchers ignoring the PS3 or not considering it a "real" player, well like I said, fine, let them be stupid; but I expect the HD-DVD camp to be a little brighter than that, and I don't understand why they still treat PS3 sales as a separate issue from player sales.

As for the Chinese HD-DVD players, they'll be recalled for unsafe lead levels anyway. :-)

If all it takes is a million players to be sold, they should have taken that 250 million bibe to paramount (or whatever the number is) and given away half a million players. That would automaticly get some people buying HD-DVD movies and also make the market more apealing to publishers.

"If all it takes is a million players to be sold, they should have taken that 250 million bibe to paramount "
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LOL! How about $300 mil... anybody want to raise to 3.... heck, let's not stop there... let's go $500 million

See FW... how these numbers get so bent out of shape!

The numbers get bent out of shape, but the concept is an interesting one: Take that 150 million and use it to subsidize the HD-DVD players so they could be sold for $150. That would sell a lot of players and, if MS is correct, win the war.

On a side note, Paramount is discontinuing its current crop of Blu-Ray discs, so hurry up and get them if you want any. But the list reaffirms my feeling that Paramount going HD will not have as much effect as MS hopes. Out of the list of 30 Blu-Ray titles that Paramount has out, there are only about two that I'd be interested in, and neither of them require high def. (Trading Places is one, and that definitely doesn't need high def.)

Well, with $150 million FW.... you can do A LOT of things.... which to me is a good indication that it may not have happened at all... but even IF it did, I'm 99.99% sure that both Paramount and Microsoft are not dumb enough to go outside the bounds of the law. Not withstanding... there was no confirmation at all that CASH changed hands... could be $150 mill in advertising for all we know.

"both Paramount and Microsoft are not dumb enough to go outside the bounds of the law." That funny, how many years has US Justice dept and MS been in US federal courts over "big legal issues" and the EU is battling with MS. ;-) But with that said, I sure Paramount would not to lose their money to legal fees and MS will do what ever they want. I would not be surprise to find out that MS is positioning itself to buy Paramount or any other "content" provider to better position itself in the online content market. MS has discover the providing "content", ie, like games, protects your product line if you acquire 3rd party producers correctly. MS is trying to produce HALO the movie, a safe first try for a new studio. Earlier news programs (MSNBC) did not produce the desire market development but did produce a lot of political connections which produced the UNiversal HD DVD 100% commitment in the beginning.

"That funny, how many years has US Justice dept and MS been in US federal courts over "big legal issues"
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Entirely predictable.... I KNEW that was coming. That wasn't breaking the law as much as it was a difference of opinion as to what the law was. That's what the Federal courts are there for.

On a different note:

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/08/28/venturer-announces-shd7000-low-cost-hd-dvd-player-for-holidays/

http://www.venturer.com/news-details.aspx?id=15

"That wasn't breaking the law as much as it was a difference of opinion as to what the law was" - that argument only has weight if you reach appeals courts, not if you lose your case and your appeal is denied. Plus Anti-Trust law is not a gray area, nor is it a new law.

But on your posting about Venture, could Venture be one of the sources of a cheap player for the Walmart rumor. Starting at 1080i for cost savings, would somewhat follow the Walmart market theme.

The stories out of Asia "IC" manufacturing community suggest a far more advance player than Venture's 1080i's; since manufacturers need specialized "ic"s, the "word" from that community is usually far more reliable PR or news rumors.

"could Venture be one of the sources of a cheap player for the Walmart rumor"
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I have Noooo idea. I do know that WallMart (at this time anyway) has expressed no interest in taking one side or the other in this war (probably not enough money in it either way to be of interest). But I also know that WallMart enjoys taking business away from other companies with cheaper prices.

The bottom line HERE anyway is price (none has been stated yet BTW... so it would be premature to say that they will be cheaper than the present machine selection) To carry the HD DVD name there is a minimum hardware spec that they must meet, and if they have done that AND come in with a cheaper price, then player sales will become quite interesting to watch.

Slightly off topic, but interesting to be talking about WallMart...In the front page of my local newspaper (The Winnipeg Free Press) WallMart has cosen ONE store in Canada (and it happens to be in my city) as a test case.... their doors will be open 24 hours a day (except Sunday). It's probably the norm in the USA... but here... not quite.

"Rob Enderle:................This guys is a moron."
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I'm in complete agreement with you on that one. I would take it one step further and call him an A hole.... but he does have a valid point....BD has already lost.

People tend to forget the fact that this is not so much about HD DVD vs. BD, but rather about SD vs. HD. The goal here is to find a HD format that can replace DVD, and BD is just not there. At the end of the day... HD DVD is MUCH, MUCH closer to accomplishing this goal.

I would go so far as to say that it is HD DVD that is keeping this whole thing alive. If they packed it tomorrow, BD would have no choice but to do the same shortly thereafter, because it would leave them back in the original war competing against DVD.... and they are NO WHERE NEAR ready for that. A $400 HD player up against a $30 dvd player... come on..... it's game over.

So I believe Rob when he says BD has already lost.... the question is are they going to allow HD DVD to win?

I suspect that this in fact is what Paramount saw, and with a little bit of assistance from Joe public and cheap HD DVD players.... the other studios will eventually see it too.

I suspect that this in fact is what Paramount saw, and with a little bit of assistance from Joe public and cheap HD DVD players.... the other studios will eventually see it too.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, I can't help but agree with that. Look at Betamax versus VHS. Betamax was clearly the better medium of the two. However, due to licensing and cost (it was far more expensive), VHS won the war, not because it was better, but because it was cheaper!

Haven't read every post here, so this may be redundant.

I don't really care who wins the war, but I'm sitting out till someone dominates or prices get real low.

I play my HD content from my computer on any computer in my house, tv or home computer monitor. I watch my $3.95 HD movies via my cable. I don't have to go and rent something, I don't have to mail anything. I hate my cable company, but they keep giving me more stuff. The HD DVR is wonderful. I don't use my home/network/multimedia setup for TV recording anymore. Just for pictures and home movies, and other video projects.

I don't have the choice of rentals in HD, but usually we don't stay home to watch something in particular, we go to the theater for that. When we watch something at home on the 46" 1080P Sony LCD, it's because either something of interest is listed for rent or we just want to stay home and veg out and we go looking for something that we didn't see at the movie theater or maybe something we like to see again in HD. When we can't find anything, we go to the SD section. We seldom fire up our DVD player.

Tv viewing habits are changing and nobody has a clue to what's going on other than there are lots of formats and distribution methods, ie internet streaming, downloads, IPod, Cell phones, DVD, HD TV, etc.... etc....

I just know that the DVD aspect isn't such a big deal right now (for my family) and I'm content to let the drama play out. I lived and payed for the VHS vs BETA format. However, too many alternatives today to worry about it.....

"I just know that the DVD aspect isn't such a big deal right now (for my family) and I'm content to let the drama play out. I lived and payed for the VHS vs BETA format. However, too many alternatives today to worry about it....."
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That may be true from your stand point... and if it works for your family then all the power to ya!

But DVD is still VERY much alive and well. The new Pirates of the Caribbean for example sold over 5 million in its first 24 hours.

"VHS won the war, not because it was better, but because it was cheaper!"
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This has been seen over and over again... CD vs. DVDA is another good example. People don't want good quality.... what they want is a reasonable balance between quality and price.

This has been seen over and over again... CD vs. DVDA is another good example. People don't want good quality.... what they want is a reasonable balance between quality and price.

I sort of agree. The part I agree about is that people like a reasonable balance between quality and price. The part I disagree about is where you're in agreement with Jay (I think it was him, I can't check) said that VHS won because it was cheaper. Blu-Ray is more expensive but it's still winning; and by a large margin. Just imagine how much better it will do when BR player prices fall into the same somewhat low price range that HD-DVD is at.

"Just imagine how much better it will do when BR player prices fall into the same somewhat low price range that HD-DVD is at."
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I wouldn't count on that happening anytime soon. If they could drop prices to match HD DVD, they would have done it by now. Blu Ray has a problem with dropping prices... they have partners that they can't afford to hurt.

And winning right now is not a possibility for either one of them. To top it all off... as I noted a few posts above, if HD DVD folds then the chances are great that so will BD They simply CAN"T compete with dvd.
But I just came from the AVS forum... the viewing numbers on the forums are just crazy for HD DVD.

HD DVD players: 688, HD VD software: 294, BD software:160 BD Players 78. Those numbers for HD DVD have not existed for quite sometime.

Highly unscientific, but again' it's a CLEAR indication that HD DVD is increasing drastically in activity

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=899148

Betamax vs VHS market battle is not the same, and its a vastly over simplification of today's market.

HD is not going to die. Many of the same arguments used with VHS vs. DVD and we know that out come. But what help DVDs, were large screen TVs, you could see the difference between VHS and DVD. VHS came back S-VHS to fight DVDs, this history is closer to the current debate,(but its an example where Sony is not losing, so it won't be acceptable to the HD DVD crowd).

HD TV broadcast are slowing increasing sales. Regardless of cries of Sony PSP3 failing, it is selling at a rate that HD DVD can only dream about. So the public is acquiring HD 1080p ability. The fact is PSP3 drives more new 1080p TV sells than X360 and WII and HD DVD players. So, there will always a market for BluRay movies the next two to for fours years.

HD DVD death has no real meaning to the BluRay camp because those HD DVD studios will be chasing the market. The current Bluray partners are all big manufacturers and studios so there will be little change there THe death of HD DVD means MS takes another hit on controlling media market. .

If the money market was in better shape, market projections of retail sales for big tickets items would be tracking as projected. DVD did not over night change the market, but HD conversion will be faster, just not fast enough for the nea sayers.