"LOS ANGELES - Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. will offer next-generation DVDs in the HD DVD format and drop support for Blu-ray, further complicating the race between the competing technologies."
Fw : You're not following what I am saying and frankly I'm getting weary of trying to explain the same thing 17 different ways. My "story" as you say has not changed a bit from what I originally started out with. You just now seem more interested in twisting my words to fit what you want to see. So with that, there is little sense in continuing here. You know my feelings, they haven't changed a bit... we'll see how it plays out. :)
I just might be willing to do that. Part of Blink's prediction is that if BluRay *does* win, then it'll disappear because it can't compete with regular DVD. This is probably based on what happened with DVD-A and SACD, but the difference here is that the full weight of the electronics industry and the studios is behind BluRay, which wasn't the case with those audio discs.
Of course, "full weight" isn't the right term, since I'm well aware that a couple of manufacturers and studios are behind HD-DVD instad. But what I mean is just that this isn't one company alone trying to come out with a new format, which was pretty much the case with each of those audio formats.
The problem with the wager is a question of time. At what point would Blink admit defeat? I know that the war isn't over, but since he says a 71% to 29% lead isn't much, what percentage would count as a win? 90%? 100%? And for how long? After all, he could very easily go on for a long time saying, "just wait, it's far from over." :-)