"HD is not going to die."
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This is true... high definition will not die... it's here to stay. But High definition and BD (or HD DVD for that matter) are 2 different things, and at present there is simply NO WAY for BD to compete against DVD. Their prices are just simply too far out of whack to survive as a sole entity against dvd. HD DVD on the other hand has a pretty good chance of survival on its own (much better than BD anyway). Their prices are coming down faster than you can say "Bob".

At this stage of the game BD is a heck of a lot more dependent on HD DVD than HD DVD is on BD. And about the only thing BD is doing (at this moment in time) is possibly killing any chance that we have to enjoy HD (via disk media)

S-VHS was out long before DVD was ever heard of. It was introduced in 1987.

I got a Panasonic AG-1830 S-VHS deck back then. It cost $1,600.00 but lasted until two years ago, when it finally wasn't cost-effective to maintain it anymore (it would have lasted longer but for a now ex-employee who plugged it into the wall without a surge protector during a thunderstorm).

An amazing workhorse that even turned out to be Y2K ready... Not bad for 1987.

Today of course you can get a high quality SD/HD digital recorder on a USB plop for not much more than the cost of a VCR cleaning + demag...

Apit, you're mistaken and your facts are not entirely accurate. You're talking about the tail. I'm talking about the dog.

The manufacturer can have all the alliances he dreams of, that does not constitute "the market."

WE are the market--you, me, the end users--the buyers of the product. The CONSUMER is the market. Do not forget that most salient fact. Things in that regard have not changed. As was mentioned above, the market--the people--are more interested in a balance between quality and price. That's what drives the market!

I don't care how good your product is, how many alliances you have, if the product is too expensive and if it doesn't meet the expectations and/or requirements or needs of the consumers, it simply won't sell, not the way you hope it will.

Man, this HD DVD/Blueray battle has some people really taking sides - the AVS forum has never been so exciting :) I'm going to agree with Jay & disagree with Apit, also blink3times makes a great point in the post above. I think the reason HD DVD has so many views recently on the AVS forum is because so many people (myself included) have jumped on the $250 Toshiba player deal.

My sense is price is what's going to decide the first round of the HD DVD/Bluray battle. To further fan the flames Venturer has just announced a "cheap" HD DVD player to ship just in time for holiday sales.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=898651

Some people speculate that this thing could go for as little as $150. Throw in a free movie promotion or bundle it free with a Vizio HD set and I imagine a lot of those puppies would end up under the Christmas tree.

Blink says: (of BR lowering player prices) I wouldn't count on that happening anytime soon. If they could drop prices to match HD DVD, they would have done it by now.</i<

I disagree. Winning IS a possibility for BR but not much of a possibility for HD (unless MS buys an end to the conflict). The "big" HD announcement was essentially saying that two desirable movies would be HD exclusives. That's not very compelling when you compare it to the BR exclusives.

And the comment about BR going away if HD goes away is just silly. Think about what you're saying. You're saying that a war is required and must last for the lifetime of the format. Silly. If HD went away, BR would be the only choice for people who wanted to get the most out of their HD televisions. And since the entire country (and most of the world) is switching over to HD, that's a big market. And if BR became as affordable as DVD, or even CLOSE (i.e. it doesn't need $50 players), why WOULDN'T people buy them instead of regular DVD???

Lastly, as for the hits on the AVS forum, don't you suppose that a lot of the hits are from BR people who are interested to see the talk on the HD forums and see what they're saying about Paramount/MS's news? And also, with the news spilling over into the mainstream, isn't it expected that people will investigate what they heard about on TV? That's advertising. And it doesn't mean that people WANT HD or WANT HD to win. It just means they were curious about the commotion. Show me the money: Show me consistent, dramatically increased HD sales and that's a different story. So far it hasn't happened with ANY of HD's big salvos.

Like I said before, the HD camp is taking Paramount's news for a LOT more than it's worth. It's a limited time deal and they've only got two big guns (Transformers and Shrek) coming up. Compare that to the BR side and it pales. Especially since Shrek falls more toward the family film side but is much smaller beans compared to Disney and their huge (and hugely desirable) library. How many families do you think will choose Shrek over Disney?

I can't say that Paramount's decision isn't a bummer, but it's definitely not a war-winner.

Yoyo, it's not so much that I am taking sides, per se. But push come to shove, I guess I would have to say that under the circumstances as they are today, I would vote for HD DVD, simply because of the low cost. I vote with my wallet.

Having said that, I wish the "format war" would end, a standard be established (which ever one it may be), once and for all, so we could get on with the business at hand--making and delivering video in the highest quality possible for the lowest cost available.

And I will leave it at that.

I still want to see affordable dual format players. I mean the discs are the same physical size and HD DVDs are really similar to the regular DVDs that Bluray players are already compatible with. If the war continues long enough, we'll have dual format players and while that may not be the best for the manufacturer, it certainly will be what's best for us consumers.

Jay, I must state your are looking at the tail, not the dog. History lessons are important, but one must use the proper history model. One, the market exist, but the credit(money to buy) is tight in the average family and young kids on their own at this time. Cost like gas fuel cost of heating homes, creditcard interest increases, variable rate mortgages, car insurance, food, cost of college, medical cost,etc has had a harder impact than expected on the disposable income that was projected a few years ago. The battle ground is getting more disposable money in the average family pockets without creating too much unmanageable debt.

A couple of us did an informal survey at a Big Ten college of Professors and discovered a big lack of disposable income more than expected. On the "must have next consumer electronics list " a larger HD TV,(this was surprising), new Apple computer,then HD bluray player;------ the difference between Professors and Grad students was wanting PSP3 for movies+gaming, WII and XBOX360 HALO3 vs. HD player( hd player was not in the top ten). This was surprising similar to a couple of High schools studied.

The market is better informed today about HD TV, and from the past, everyone knows that DVD made standard TV look better, and anyone who owns a HD TV expects media to look good.

The argument that cost will save DVD is the same argument used about VHS. DVD collapse will be faster that the VHS volume collapse because a whole new set of TV standards has been changed. TVs owners are slowly being forced to change. Playable media content will follow, this change is only affect by the cost of money. Manageable consumer debt is what is slowing many manufacturers from introducing more gizmos.

A side note: I listened to a discussion about "moving sales", where a theorem was being offered that because of "tighten money conditions", money that would be used to buy DVDs to big vacation events is being used for Theaters, live social events, limited dining and etc because of dating and family "bonding" needs. This was projected to be a short term effect based on disposable income changing in about two years.

post 130

Check out Sony's vegas8 features at this link: http://www.videoguys.com/vegaspro8.html/

BluRay burning................................................... able to run on a laptop with BR burner......
kick-butt news. ENG "field" producers will love this!

"There hasn't been a reason to drop prices."
come on.. give me a break FW...................... HD DVD players have been out selling BD players for a while now

"Winning IS a possibility for BR but not much of a possibility for HD"
OH please!!! Do you REALLY think HD DVD is going to throw in the towel over a 700,000 disk lead??? I keep telling you that a 700,000 disk lead is nothing compared to the untapped market that's out there. The new Pirates of Carribean on dvd sold over 5 MILLION IN 24 HOURS..... BD was and is no where NEAR winning. On the other hand.... like Microsoft said... all ya gotta do is sell enough players and the studios will start to listen.

And the comment about BR going away if HD goes away is just silly.
Is it really? Do you honestly think the studios will continue creating HD disks when the purchase number are so low?? At $400 per player, it will be very much the same as the laser disk... too expensive and not a big enough support base.

"Lastly, as for the hits on the AVS forum, don't you suppose that a lot of the hits are from BR people who are interested to see the talk on the HD forums and see what they're saying about Paramount/MS's news? "
Oh Absolutely!! In fact there is a thread in the BD forums labeled "Is it time to go format neutral?"

Universal launches a new HD DVD website for interactive features!

http://www.universalhidef.com/

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/786

Yawn. BluRay has web features too, perhaps not on all titles, but well, who cares? Certainly not the public.

Blink,
Which is it? Are HD players outselling BR players or not? Please be consistent! BR players are selling just fine, thank you, and up to this point there's been no pressing need to lower the prices. You yourself were crowing about the upcoming Onkyo player for HD and that costs MORE than a BluRay player. So is the Onkyo going to have an impact? According to you it can't, because it's too expensive. Ditto the dual-format players.

And yes, the studios will continue selling high definition discs if HD-DVD goes away, because THE ENTIRE ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY is shifting over to high definition, in case you hadn't noticed. And if it costs the same to put out high-def discs, why would they stick with DVD??? The user base will grow. Period. It's a switchover, like from floppies to CDs (no format war there) or from VHS to DVD (no format war there) or from 78's to 33 1/3 (no format war there). It happens all the time.

"but well, who cares? Certainly not the public."
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Are you sure??

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=899403

"Which is it? Are HD players outselling BR players or not? "
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FW... I've told you this already. According to my newspaper (The Winnipeg Free Press) HD DVD players outsold BD players by nearly 2:1 in the second quarter. There was a big pie chart showing HD DVD with 61% of the pie.

Of course they did mention that this did not include the PS3. They went on to describe that the PS3 was a "questionable issue" With the PS3 the machine count was reversed roughly 6:1 for BD... but then things didn't add up when disk sale were only at a level of nearly 2:1. They have concluded that... and I quote, "people who own game consoles buy fewer movies than people who own movie-only players".

"THE ENTIRE ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY is shifting over to high definition, "
Yup... this is true too... but as i have already said... hi definition and BD/HD DVD are not the same thing and people are simply NOT going to spend $400 on a player when they can watch it on dvd for $30... it's that simple. The consumers (the people in the REAL drivers seat) are just not there to offer enough support to make it worth it for the studios to continue. Now it may not COMPLETELY die, just like dvda hasn't quite died yet... but then it sure isn't being taken too seriously is it

It looks like the new Venturer HD DVD player is going to go for $199 and it starts shipping in the 4th quarter.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6472414

blink,

You sticking those links to AVS forum in every post you make. AVS became a nest for HD DUD zealots because of the moderators who are probably on M$ payroll.

How about this quote from Sigma Designs insider:

There are more than 10 companies in the process of making stand-alone BD players, several at the request of major retailers. Most of these companies will have at least two models.

I wonder how many people are like me and have been waiting for the price to fall to the 200 or 100 level......

Then we will have to try to figure out the HD DVD thing vs the Blue Ray thing.... If that's even going to be an issue.....

I think my earlier point should have been, ya I'd like one, but not until they get nearer current DVD player prices.... I am happy as a pig in >>>> with the computer HD playback and renting HD entertainment via my service provider.

When the HD players come down in price, I will burn my 3-4 HD projects for family onto the discs, but not until the players are down in price.

All in all, I think there are many sitting on the sidelines. HD TV's are selling well and more people are getting into HD so maybe the prices will draw more people into the HD DVD format. I have no idea if the numbers of players being sold are satisfying the manufacturers. But I got to believe that people like myself that usually buy all the high tech stuff when it comes out, that are sitting this one out, has to hurt a little or at least throw off their marketing / manufacturing estimates.

Blink,
Your newspaper is wrong. And even more wrong for not including PS3. Anyway, one moment you're saying that there are more BR players out there, then the next moment you're saying the opposite (such as when quoting the Wnnipeg Free Press). If there's such momentum for HD players, why did Toshiba slash its projections for this year by almost half? And, as I pointed out before, PS3 sales for the first quarter of this year alone are more than half of Toshiba's HD projections for the entire YEAR.

Let me ask you this regarding the opinions expressed in the WFP: If HD players are outselling BR by so much, and PS3 people aren't using them to watch movies, then what explains the 2:1 lead that BR consistently maintains in disc sales? What is it about BR owners that makes them buy movies? Especially since it's so easy to rent them instead? Could it be that the WFP is wrong and the millions (or whatever) of PS3 owners DO actually watch movies on them?

As for your continued statements about people not spending $400 on players, when did I ever say that the prices would stay like that? You said that if HD-DVD went away that BR would fail too. I said it wouldn't, because the entertainment industry is changing over to HD. Prices would go down on BR just like prices went down on VHS, Betamax, CD's, DVD's, hard drives, flash drives, computers, and everything else. You've got to understand that when thinking about the future you have to look at more than just one thing. In other words, don't just look at HD-DVD going away, look at what BR would do; look at how the industry would market to the public; look at how a unified format would reduce prices; look at how people would be very used to high def quality; look at how with prices for consumers AND for manufacturers being low, there'd be no reason for either of them to stick with NTSC. BR is co-owned by a movie studio. Do you think they'll just give up on it?

The audio format war, while it has its lessons to be learned, isn't quite the same as this war. With audio, the difference was negligible between the "old" and the "new" (except for the occasional "new" that had surround). People were happy with CD's and saw no reason to move up to DVD-A or SACD. Not only that, but two other factors were in play that aren't in play at the moment for video: Ripping, and downloading. By the time the new audio discs came out, people were used to being able to rip CD's and play them on their computer or MP3 players, but you couldn't do that with the new high-def audio discs. Eventually that would have come, but it didn't happen soon enough. And anyway, people were moving to computer-based audio like MP3 and things like that. If there wasn't a format war, one of the formats may have been able to survive, but it's hard to tell. High-def video discs are here to stay though, well, stay until everyone's on 10mbit broadband or until a new amazingly low bandwidth codec appears.

(On a side note, tomorrow my Oppo 970HD arrives. I bought it to play the SACD's and DVD-A's that I have. :-) )

For what it's worth, The Digital Bits is reporting that the 150 million didn't come from MS, at least not directly, it came from Toshiba (or the HD camp "pool").

"Your newspaper is wrong. And even more wrong for not including PS3. "
The WFP is wrong... Microsoft is paying people/companies off.... Okay,,, I get what you're saying... this is a BIG conspiracy against BD. ;)

"what explains the 2:1 lead that BR consistently maintains in disc sales? What is it about BR owners that makes them buy movies? Especially since it's so easy to rent them instead?"
Well, first, it's not 2:1. If we use your numbers, the last ones I saw are up the thread a little 2.2mil for BD and 1.5 for HD. That's a difference of 700 thousand disks.... hardly 2:1... and If you think that's anything to brag about given the lopsided studio support then I would hate to see what you think a "win" would be!? And as I said above... you are not dealing with an average consumer in this field right now. You are dealing for the most part with connoisseurs of video and technology, who get sense of pride in owning as opposed to renting. As for WFP being wrong... well sure that's possible... but then so could your Nelson stats too.. They sure didn't help you out too much in predicting the paramount issue did they. I could have sworn the HD DVD would "be dead by Christmas" ;)

"As for your continued statements about people not spending $400 on players, when did I ever say that the prices would stay like that?
BD prices have dropped at an accelerated rate BECAUSE of hd dvd. But they are STILL much to high to even THINK about competing with dvd.... and THAT'S where the real war is. BD was just plain not ready for market.... they were forced on to the scene by HD DVD because hd dvd WAS and IS ready for market. HD DVD IS in a position to take on dvd in every way, shape, and form.... including price. BD was not ready before, and it is not ready now. Although I must say, there are some great BD player sales going on right now. Stores are desperately trying to unload their BD player stock before Oct 31... after that they're pretty much junk.

"High-def video discs are here to stay..."
Well.... not if HD DVD loses :)